When they lift the covers for the 2013 Cheltenham
Festival there will be no time for drying ground. Dead, tacky, energy sapping
turf will be the order of the day Tuesday. Most races will go a good pace early bar maybe
the Champion Hurdle and the Cross Country. Markets for the non handicaps are
now settled after months of trading and a few adjustments allowing for
conditions. There is not much value left in these in truth, but various money
back offers and ¼ odds a place leaves some room still to take a side.
One angle I’m very interested in is doing multiple
bets with horses of the same formline that you believe is strong. I believe
this is a related bet, but one which is allowed. For instance you can’t back
Van Persie to be top goalscorer for the season and Man Utd to win the league at
full odds in a double, as one selection winning means the other has a far
greater chance. Similarly you cannot back Barry Geraghty and Nicky Henderson at
full odds in a double this week at Cheltenham to top the jockey and trainer
standings respectively, as one winning will most likely mean the other will
prevail too.
Though not as closely related as some examples above,
backing a horse from a race you believe is the best form line, or on a line
through horse(s) that they have run against that you believe sets a strong standard may provide an opportunity to
multiply value. If you have got the view of a strong form line correct (easier said than done), well then you may be
on to something in terms of getting leg 1 right, leg 2 may be taken at a far
bigger price than the sp go off or that leg 2 should be considering the
connection.
2 quick examples to try and highlight this are as
follows (Not exactly dark horses!);
The New One 9/2 Neptune Novices & At Fishers
Cross 4/1 Albert Bartlett
My Tent or Yours 7/4 Supreme Novices and Cotton Mill
7/1 County Hurdle
If the first part of either these doubles win and
you’ve taken prices (necessity for this angle), you will more than likely be on
the 2nd leg at an enhanced price due to the form being franked. Therefore
the multiple has provided you with enhanced value.
The point is rather than believing The New One is
actually a 7/2 shot in your opinion, At Fishers Cross 10/3, the value over time
is far greater in multiplying the perceived edge. As by your opinion being
correct on the first leg, leg 2 is far shorter in your book, and probably far
shorter with the layers as a result.
Please
comment underneath or get back to me on twitter whether you believe there is
something in this or not. Either way let me know. If you believe there could be
something to it why not suggest horses or formlines that you believe may be a
good example for the week ahead…
Tuesday
1.30 Supreme ; Champagne Fever was tempting in the
conditions at double figures earlier in the week. My Tent or Yours is far more
solid than previous favourites of the race with such a high rating. The hill
and test of stamina the worry, including what looks like possibly the best
Supreme field for years. I think the jolly will win. I’m intrigued to see how Un
Atout gets on, so much potential, but that’s
the problem, at the prices its only potential you’re clinging on to. Something
like Cause of Causes at a big price with form in the book, and a tough sort with
stamina to handle the test of the race is more attractive.
2.05 Arkle
7 runners results in less of an interest each way. Simonsig
and Overturn are more priced on potential over fences. Simonsig does look
hugely impressive and I wouldn’t be surprised by a big performance. Arvika
Legionnaire’s form is decent, especially his defeat of Dedigout in Fairyhouse.
The worry is a hard season and going left handed mightn't be his preferred. The
other big worry is that he and Overturn are likely to take each other on and
there will be a fierce pace on. The only view I have on this race is that
Arvika Legionnaire may trade very short for a place turning in and he’s worth
laying before the pressure of the hill comes on.
2.40 JLT Handicap Chase
White Star Line is the pick here. 2nd
last year to Hunt Ball off 3lb higher but over 3 furlongs shorter, he could be
very well treated here. 14/1 represents value, especially with 5 places and his
owner is known for a punt and if fancied this could go off half the price.
Golden Chieftain is the other one that appeals down
the bottom of the handicap at 40/1. He’ll be well able for testing conditions,
3rd here to Unioniste in an attritional race and scooted in off 5lb
lower in Worcester in the Autumn by 14 lengths.
3.20 Champion Hurdle
I think 2/1 Hurricane Fly means you are taking on
trust connections and willing to draw a line through last year, I’m not so
quick to forgive. This market is mature though and there is not too much value
left. In a slowly run race with no obvious pace on, something like Grandouet
with plenty of toe would be of interest was it not for his interrupted prep.
Binocular, Rock on Ruby and Countrywide Flame are all snippets of value for me
but not enough to have a bet.
4.00 Cross Country
A fierce open renewal. 16 runners will give some
value to punters with four places. I have no real opinion.
4.40 Mares Hurdle
Quevega will win if the same mare but priced
accordingly. Swing Bowler brings the best recent form for me and looks the bet
without.
5.15
Colour Squadron was much better than the bare form
for all his chase starts. While the handicapper hasn’t gave him a mark
literally for those runs, he still looks to have minimum 10/12lb in hand, which
we must remember is nearly the minimum needed to win a festival handicap. If
nothing else he’s 2lb lower than his hurdles mark that was still unexposed and
hadn’t reached its full potential and looks to make for a better chaser.
Handbrake off tomorrow. The value has been squeezed out of him this week. Double
figures in to best 6/1 now. Though he’ll probably go off 7/2. I think he’ll
win. He’ll get the best help in the saddle.
4/6 The Supreme to be quicker than the Champion Hurdle took the eye. If it was 10/11 I'd bet. The Supreme with Un Atout and Champagne Fever dragging it along looks like it will be quicker, but 4/6 is about right in my opinion. Another interesing market I seen was the race with the biggest winning distance.. 7/1 The Arkle,a race in which I think will fall apart up the straight due to the frenetic early pace and lack of depth in the field is enticing as well as the 4m National Hunt Chase at 16/1. The combination of the trip, ground and possible gulf in class (hopefully Back in Focus) may lead to a big margin.
Best of luck for the week. The greatest show on earth. Let the games begin.
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