Use your Head with Ned 31-12-14

New Year. New Resolutions. Big changes planned and fresh starts a plenty. Dundalk however requires more of the same. A bit of graft and a dose of intuition should cut it to find a few winners. January is a funny time in the all –weather calendar however. Some horses have been on the go since September with 6 or 7 runs under their belt while others are having their first run back. It is important to find a horse ready to give a consistent or peak performance and avoid those who are over the top or only starting out for the year. More often than not it is not the well handicapped or highly promising horse that wins in the depth of the winter at Dundalk, but one who’s ready to give its running and perform to their mark.

A devilishly difficult 5f handicap to start 2015 with recent winners in Kimbay, Startegic Heights and Times in Anatfeka in the 5-day entries. The selection Almadaa  turns 8 on New Year’s Day. He won in Naas during the summer off a mark of 67 beating Kimbay (49) into second. The Marnane runner has a 21lb pull on Friday. While the stable hasn’t been in great form it was encouraging to see the Tipperary handler have a winner at the last meeting. Almadaa ran on here last time out after a 3 month break and wasn’t beaten far, despite that was dropped a pound and runs off his lowest AW rating for two years.

The 4yo+ mile maiden is a very weak race and I thought Saga Diamond showed enough promise in her first two starts to suggest she’d win a race of this nature. The Barrett filly’s first run in Fairyhouse behind Photo Call was perfectly adequate, here 6 months later behind Tom Melbourne she was keen, led into the straight and just a combination of a lack of fitness and a trip too far told as she dropped to 3^rd. I think the drop to a mile should suit considering how well she has travelled through her races so far. An interesting rival could be Annie Irish who has caught the eye first twice but is unlikely to trouble the judge to obtain what could be an attractive handicap mark after 3 runs.

Fairy Foxglove has run well twice now since her return to the polytrack and is likeable and uncomplicated. Going a little fast last twice if she gets a more efficient trip over the step up to a mile which is sure to suit, I think the mare should be capable of winning a handicap like this. Settle for Red returns from his foray to England and comes back to a mark in which he won off last year so he would rate the biggest danger.

The 7f Light Up Your Night Handicap looks another tricky affair with recent winner Twistsandturns entered, 7lb higher. Indian Landing was a fair 2^nd to Whailley last time out and Dashwood is sure to be at the front of the market, but I suspect he may be better over 6f on soft ground in the spring. Hilary commands respect only 5lb higher than when a comfortable winner here back in September but my idea of a winner very soon would be Burren View Lady. Ideally I’d like to see this mare in the lowest grade off her mark off 62 but she is now dangerously well handicapped for her shrewd trainer and the market could prove very informative. The 5yo wasn’t put into the race last time out, incurred traffic in the straight and I wouldn’t let recent form put you off.

Ned’s Indian is the class horse in the 10f handicap and the key to the Sabrina Harty gelding is the drop in trip from 12f. He has never won at further than 10f despite 8 attempts and still has a fine record of 5 wins from 25 starts. Last start he was going equally as well as Moonmeister at the top of the straight but his run flattened out. The average runs over further I feel inflate his price when he drops back to his optimum trip.

In the 47-65 version of the 10f handicap two horses catch the eye. Heart in the Air of Andy Oliver’s has a mark of 65 despite very nearly winning a competitive handicap in Navan off 64 recently and if she transferred that form it would nearly be good enough. The other is Empresario who has dropped to an attractive mark of 65. The Matthew Smith gelding is taking a serious drop in class here and showed some form last day staying on well behind Sharjah. He is a little lairy but should suit a big field and finds a nice opportunity here. 

Memorable Year for da Town 22-12-14

Dundalk Stadium spent the large part of 2014 as the titleholder of Racecourse of the Year. It was some sporting year for the town with the heroics of Dundalk FC, St Patrick’s and Sean O’Mahony’s GAA. Only this week a Dundalk native and rising star Shane Gray rode his 50^th career success in Goldolphin silks and lost his 5lb claim, joining his brother Stephen at 3,though different codes.

The racing at Dundalk was as ever consistently entertaining, sprinkled with some top quality action and continues to serve a real niche in Irish flat racing. A few themes have shone through this year;

·         Mick Halford

 The Kildare trainer may have had an ordinary turf campaign but was electric on the all-weather. 28 winners from 142 runners and a 20% strike rate, with a level stakes profit of +6.74. His 2yo’s even more impressive with 7/20 winning and a profit of over 28pts. His followers enjoyed nights where he had doubles, trebles and a four timer.

·         Repeat Winners

Horses become as familiar as Turkey on Christmas Day each Friday. 2014 was the year of horses running up a sequence and winning multiple times at the track, becoming firm favourites for their backers. Minot Street, Sharjah, The Dancing Lord, Havelock Eliis, Kimbay and Moonmeister just to mention a few. They’ve all won at least three times this autumn/winter. Favourites like Nedera and Slipper Orchid didn’t even make that list, not to mention the dual winner Tsar Paul who proved every dog has its day, and indeed that lightning does strike twice!

·         Top Prizes for Export

The English came, saw and conquered. Caspian Prince, Cat O’Mountain, Sir Maximillian and Pelerin have all won some of the better class races held on the sand; including valuable sprints, a listed race and the Group 3 Diamond Stakes. Tony Carroll also managed a double on a raid in November. This can only be a good thing and show the way for more raiders and better class racing next year.

·         Tough Decisions

Back in February the High Court ruled in favour of the bookmaker’s at the old Dundalk track. The 7 year long case came to an end with the judgement that the senior bookmakers should not have had to pay new fees to stand at the newly refurbished track. It’s a saga that will probably run and run regarding settlement but one feels this bitter case could have been avoided altogether. On the track Stewards changed the result of the Listed Carlingford Stakes back in October, demoting Obliterator and awarding Jim Bolger’s Chance to Dance the prize. Another controversial enquiry in October saw Orcia keep a fillies maiden over the unlucky ClutchingatStraws and Maira.

In the spirit of a review of 2014 let’s hand out a few awards for the Stars of the Sand;

Horse of the Year  Nominees are Panama Hat, Cat O’Mountain, Slipper Orchid, Captain Joy and He’s Our Music . Winner : He’s Our Music

Handicapper of the Year Havelock Ellis, Moonmeister, Kimbay, Sharjah and Minot Street.

Winner: Moonmeister

Ride of the Year Honourable mention Keith Quinn on Stoichkov. Winner : Shane Foley – Whaileyy  5^th November .

Trainer of the Year Nominees include M Halford, AJ Martin, S Harty, P Deegan and J Feane

Winner : J Feane

Gamble of the Year Touches were landed with Beau Satchel, Smuggler’s Cove, Kernoff, Ask Dad and Aggression. Winner : Ask Dad

Race of the Year  -  Winner: Cat O’Mountain G3 Diamond Stakes

Performance of the Year -  Winner : Panama Hat 17^th Aug

Monkey of the Year Too many to mention, this was a tough one! Winner: Ability N Delivery

Punter’s Pal of the Year - Winner: Kimbay

Well Named Horse of the Year – Winner: Camakasi There was a few Kamikaze performances!

Let me know what you think of the 2014 category winners and any notable absentees on our facebook or twitter page. Kingbet would like to wish all the readers a Merry Christmas and a lucky 2015. 

Escape from Alcatraz 16-12-14

I was pleasantly surprised to see 138 entries for Dundalk this Friday night, the last meeting before Christmas. This just shows the usefulness and success of the County Louth All Weather track. That in the depth of the winter, furthest away from the height of the flat season a card can be so competitive and well attended. Last week we were treated to a duo of quality performances from two colossi of the polytrack. He’s Our Music is now 5 wins from 15 runs at Dundalk with 3 seconds and thirds to his name. The 93 rated gelding of Pat Flynn is a star of the sand and runs way above his turf form every time he lines up on the all-weather. The other is Captain Joy. Now 105 rated, Tracey Collins 5yo has had 6 wins from only ten starts in Dundalk and two seconds. The grey was unlucky to not win on his first start at Meydan on the Tapeta surface last January and after his excellent performance on Friday, all I could think of was what a shame Meydan have ripped up the Tapeta surface and have replaced it with the US favoured dirt. Dundalk has in the past acted as a prelim to the Dubai Carnival and as a result has attracted good horses to run there. After seeing the success of the AW championships in Lingfield on Good Friday, maybe it’s time Dundalk held a championship of their own and became the main dish and not a side.

The 7f 2yo maiden this week is one of serious depth and several entries take the eye, not least the Dubai Carnival accepter Alcatraz. The Johnny Levins colt will do well to escape with a win as he has to face the might of Halford, Marnane, C. O’Brien, Harrington, Callaghan and Lynam’s charges. The well backed Period Piece stayed on well last week in eye-catching fashion while showing greenness to be 2^nd, Gladly was equally noticeable on debut here doing good work in the finish and the selection if lining up would be Yulong Xiongfeng after three promising starts for Eddie Lynam. The Showcasing colt has run well last twice staying on in Galway and Listowel behind two smart types of Aidan O’Brien in Jamaica and Smugglers Cove, while not really handling either track. I’d expect a better run for the benefit of experience and a consistent flat surface here.

Rest Assured was an agonising 2^nd here for the column last time and should run well again despite going up 4lb in the weights. A chance is taken again with Lily’s Rainbow who was wide throughout behind Dalewari in her last run and dropped 2lb since; a better trip may see the Foster filly go much closer in the Nursery. The rated race is tricky if most of the entries stand their ground but Marble Statuette of Tony Martins may enjoy the drop in class from running against the likes of Captain Joy last week and is top rated, the danger may lie in Peter Casey’s Rose Angel who is thriving.

Fastidious was a fine second to Captain Joy last Friday after a 4 month absence and if the 6f race does not come too soon should take a lot of beating off only 1lb higher. The grey Grey Danube is the selection otherwise after showing up well here last time behind Serenity Spa. Only beaten 2.5l after ridden patiently at the rear early returning from a 5 month break, this is the 5yo gelding’s lowest mark since winning here last January. Manorov should make amends for being beaten here in dramatic fashion 3 weeks ago; on top inside the final furlong when Conor Hoban dropped his stick and he just got chinned as a result by Alvar. The McCourt horse will be little value in the 10f apprentice handicap though and I’ll go with That’s Ours again who has had excuses last twice and before that won in determined style off only 3lb less.

Moonmeister is in the form of his life after beating subsequent winner Sharjah a fortnight ago. The step up to 12f has been the making of the Elliot horse and is only 3lb higher than his last win despite him and Sharjah pulling clear. The ultra-consistent and tough Ned’s Indian should give him most to do. In the last race before Christmas Heart in the Air  of Andy Oliver’s may be the one to pay for pudding as the trainer seems to have targeted these staying maidens for older horses in December. Two strong pieces of handicap form in Navan and the potential up in trip may be good enough reasons to take this ordinary finale.

Hi Empress to Rule Dundalk

We are treated to another double bill of racing from Dundalk this week. The feature on Friday night is the 7f Light Up Your Night Handicap. The race has received 14 entries and among them are the winners of 46 races and £709,912 prizemoney. The 2014 HRI Trainer of the Year Eddie Lynam has prolific sprinter Balmont Mast in, he has never won over 7f however. Track specialists Captain Joy, Rummaging and Antiquus are entered along with the hat-trick seeking fillies Marble Statuette and Misty Lane. Even Aidan O’Brien could be getting in on the act with The Islander. It’s sure to be a Christmas cracker.

The feature looks fiendishly difficult at entry stage though when considering a bet on the card, and it may pay to look elsewhere. Hi Empress looks the most interesting proposition on the Friday. Fly leaping the stalls last time when a fast finishing 2^nd, the 4yo filly really caught the eye coming home the last 3 furlongs in 33.5 seconds. She was beaten a head by subsequent winner Times in Anatefka and must have made 8 lengths on the leaders from the turn in only for the line to come too soon. 

Though receiving a 4lb penalty it doesn’t look harsh when she should be capable of plenty more with any type of normal trip during the 5f race. 

Clutchingatstraws bids to break her maiden tag on the 5^th time of asking in the mile fillies maiden. I think she will as the key to her is the step up in trip. She is well regarded by the in-form M Callaghan stable, seeing money in the market each time she ran but leaving the impression when best in the finish that she needs further. The stable have won 2 maidens in the last couple of weeks and saw 4 out of their five runners placed. 

Cash Or Casualty is down to an attractive handicap mark now for a horse with such ability and a liking for the track. The Damian English runner has won 4 times here in Dundalk and drops to a low rating of 60. Running off 5lbs higher in September he was third to Havelock Ellis after missing the break, behind him that day was subsequent winner The Dancing Lord. The last run can be excused from stall 14 with an inexperienced rider. I’d expect this once 89 rated gelding to give a bold front running display in a race where a lot of the entries are hold up horses.

 Elsewhere on the Friday High Net Worth showed a bit of old sparkle last time out and is interesting dropping in class in the 10f handicap, though don’t expect him to find much off the bridle in the last as is his way!

Wednesday is the lower key of the evenings. Banna Boirche disappointed for readers of this column last week but is clear on ratings in the claimer in the first. He should win if he gets his act together but be warned; in his 8 wins from 32 runs in Dundalk his average winning distance is less than a length, he doesn’t seem to win by more than necessary, so that may be an angle when betting this race. Kingbet have distance betting for all short priced favourites and bet on the winning margin of every race in UK and Ireland. 

So Focussed made a nice introduction in Naas for Jim Bolger over 6f and could have the potential to win an ordinary looking 3yo+ mile maiden. The step up in trip should suit and Taaluf may be the biggest danger, the AW seems to be her best surface. 

Waver has run moderately on last two occasions but there have been legitimate excuses; slow paces which haven’t suited and incurring traffic in the straight. The AP O’Brien horse is not straightforward and needs to be produced late but is on a feasible handicap mark and should get a good pace to run at here with front runners Ned’s Indian, Specific Gravity and Long Journey Home in the field. 

That’s Ours only has one eye but that might not stop him winning the last 12f race. A gutsy winner here on the 21^st of November the Giant’s Causeway gelding can be forgiven his poor run the last day. Wide all the way and in a better class of race against the likes of Minot Street and Sharjah he couldn’t land a blow. Down a bit in grade here he could be wrongly dismissed in the market judged on his latest effort, which would be a blinkered view. 

Ready for a Peak Performance

It is a good feeling when my e-mail lights up on a Monday morning alerting me to the horses entered on Friday night from my tracker. Those who make the list should do for a good reason, in theory! The best part on doing your own form study and watching the races back is when you think you’ve spotted one that will go underrated the next day. We’ll play a game here and let you guess the nap for this week at Dundalk.

I am the highest rated entry on the card. I am a course specialist with 8 wins from 31 runs on all weather and in half those starts I’ve been placed. I’m trained by a man in scintillating form with a 29% strike rate for November, 9 winners from 31 runners and in 2014 is showing profit to a level €1 stake of €20.01 at Dundalk, 21% SR and 27 wins from 127 runners. I am well named as it means the Mourne Mountains in English, which is apt as the stands in my favourite track face the Co. Down mountain range. I’m an 8yo gelding whose rated 95 but once as high as 106 and have been to Dubai. Beaten less than 2 lengths here when running for the first time after 7 months, I ran great. Held up off a slow gallop and made plenty of ground in the straight when not knocked about on seasonal return behind Misty Lane, it was the perfect pipe opener for Friday. My trainer’s horses often improve a tonne for their first run of the season and I could be the class angle in the mile handicap. Who am I?

Moneen Oasis Is an interesting entry in the first this week for WP Browne. Last year he and jockey Seamie Heffernan paired up to win a maiden with American Hope the first week of December when backed from 10/1 – 4/1. That horse had an eye-catching debut in November like Moneen Oasis and after winning at Dundalk was sold and has gone on to be a 100 plus rated horse in England. 3 weeks ago the Oasis Dream gelding was slow away, held up, really travelled into the home turn though Heffernan kept him wide, made plenty of ground in the hottest part of the race and looked to blow up (in need of the run for fitness) before left alone late on. It was a really educational debut and a la American Hope last year I thought it showed quite a bit of raw ability. If granted a nice draw over 5f here he could big a big price in the morning and market support would be encouraging.

Rest Assured was an eye-catching 3^rd last time out over 7f and looks a fair bet to win the Nursery. She was ridden patiently off a steady gallop, giving first run to her rivals but finished best. I’d expect the Deegan trained filly to be ridden more prominently, the danger may lie in winner that day Whip up a Frenzy who was unlucky to be collared late on here last week by Dalewari. But a 3lb pull and better positioning may be enough to turn the tables.

Hash Tag Hero could be a big price if the Andy Oliver gelding lines up in the 10f maiden. He was dropped in at the rear on debut from a wide stall in a race won by Venezia. This race was run at a crawl early on and they sprinted in the last 3f. The reason I was taken by this ordinary looking performance on paper, was how the horse on debut quickened from the rear as the pace heated up, wide around the final bend. Hash Tag Hero’s run flattened out in the straight but it was a run of much promise.

Alfaayza won with a degree of authority here 3 weeks ago I thought, always travelled like the best horse and didn’t win by further as sat too close to a frenetic pace early and tired late on. A 2lb rise is not harsh and her trainer Pat Flynn is in form after a quiet summer, 4 winners from his last 18 runners.

Elsewhere on the card Cebuano is in great heart and back to a winnable make in the last and Maudlin Magdalen if getting an easier time on the lead in the rated race would be my idea of the winner.

Is mise Banna Boirche.  

On the Double 25-11-14

UK Trainers have a fine record when running their horses on the flat in Ireland in 2014. They have contested 160 races and won 28 of them, a 17.5% strike rate and show a level stakes profit of nearly 27 points. Tony Carroll had 2 winners from 2 runners last week. He had to work for it though, both horses winning no more than a head and justifying the trainers’ shrewd decision to employ present and former champion jockeys Smullen and O’Brien. Carroll has the taste for it now and has entered 8 horses this Friday, including 3 last time out winners.

Dundalk doubles up again this week with a midweek meeting along with Friday and both are interesting cards. Wednesday gets the better of the action quality wise.  Nini Ok is the type of profile I like for a bet in the 6f handicap as it drops in class. The JJ Murphy runner showed a fair level of form last time when 4^th behind Whaileyy, a horse of the like he won’t meet here. Yulong Xiongfeng should take beating in the 7f maiden after three promising starts for Eddie Lynam. The Showcasing colt has run well last twice staying on in Galway and Listowel behind two smart types of Aidan O’Brien in Jamaica and Smugglers Cove, while not really handling either track. I’d expect a better run for the benefit of experience and a consistent flat surface here.  Lynam’s is doubly entered but I wouldn’t like to see him run in the Nursery as a mark of 79 is plenty and Lily’s Rainbow is the horse I fancy in that. Mrs Denise Foster from Enfield trains and her charges are often overpriced as a small stable. This filly has caught the eye when staying on well here in a Nursery behind Private Party and then 5^th in a decent Navan maiden last day, surrounded by higher rated rivals. She should be much better for those runs and with connections bound to be a price. Jim Bolger has what looks like two well handicapped horses in the final races on the midweek card and with average looking runs last time out on first inspection, should be big prices too. Sparanai in the 1m2f handicap was hampered badly at the top of the straight in Leopardstown in her first handicap and can be forgiven that. She travelled well into the straight that day, only beaten 5l after all and subsequently dropped 2lb to a rating of 70. That look’s generous on her run at Naas in June where 7^th not beaten far in a hot maiden. Intense Debate ran well to a point in a 1m4f maiden last Friday and just didn’t stay, the winner Enzani got 80 while Bolger’s charge remains a lowly 63. The filly also didn’t stay 12f in Roscommon and went far too fast early at the Curragh in October and as a result has slid down the handicap. She has shown more than enough ability in the past to win this off 63 and after an unusually quiet year for the Master of Coolcullen, his team may be ready to fire. 

Friday’s card is more familiar with lots of horses known to us from the last couple of months on the all-weather. Sharjah should go close again in the 12f handicap getting in the 47-70 off top rating after a fair 2^nd last time. Nedera will make a bold bid for the hat-trick in the mile race, her form working out when Almosthaditall won last Friday. Manorov was sent off a silly short price last week from a wide stall over a trip unknown, but could be the opposite this week, dropping to a trip he’s run well over and hopefully finding a better barrier. Avenue Montaigne brings an excellent level of form to the 7f fillies maiden and should win for a trainer who’s done superbly with his 2yo’s in 2014. Danz Gift was slow away last time out from a wide stall, wide throughout and green he flashed home when only beat as a selection a fortnight ago. The race has been given a boost by Kimbay running well last week and with normal improvement for the education of that run, I’d expect the 3yo sprinter to start filling its potential. Alfaayza won with a degree of authority here a fortnight ago I thought, always travelled like the best horse and only run down late as sat too close to a frenetic pace early. A 2lb rise is not harsh and I can see the Pat Flynn runner being a price against rivals that may well be over bet like Marble Statuette, Sandy Smile and the UK runner.