Use your Head with Ned 31-12-14

New Year. New Resolutions. Big changes planned and fresh starts a plenty. Dundalk however requires more of the same. A bit of graft and a dose of intuition should cut it to find a few winners. January is a funny time in the all –weather calendar however. Some horses have been on the go since September with 6 or 7 runs under their belt while others are having their first run back. It is important to find a horse ready to give a consistent or peak performance and avoid those who are over the top or only starting out for the year. More often than not it is not the well handicapped or highly promising horse that wins in the depth of the winter at Dundalk, but one who’s ready to give its running and perform to their mark.

A devilishly difficult 5f handicap to start 2015 with recent winners in Kimbay, Startegic Heights and Times in Anatfeka in the 5-day entries. The selection Almadaa  turns 8 on New Year’s Day. He won in Naas during the summer off a mark of 67 beating Kimbay (49) into second. The Marnane runner has a 21lb pull on Friday. While the stable hasn’t been in great form it was encouraging to see the Tipperary handler have a winner at the last meeting. Almadaa ran on here last time out after a 3 month break and wasn’t beaten far, despite that was dropped a pound and runs off his lowest AW rating for two years.

The 4yo+ mile maiden is a very weak race and I thought Saga Diamond showed enough promise in her first two starts to suggest she’d win a race of this nature. The Barrett filly’s first run in Fairyhouse behind Photo Call was perfectly adequate, here 6 months later behind Tom Melbourne she was keen, led into the straight and just a combination of a lack of fitness and a trip too far told as she dropped to 3^rd. I think the drop to a mile should suit considering how well she has travelled through her races so far. An interesting rival could be Annie Irish who has caught the eye first twice but is unlikely to trouble the judge to obtain what could be an attractive handicap mark after 3 runs.

Fairy Foxglove has run well twice now since her return to the polytrack and is likeable and uncomplicated. Going a little fast last twice if she gets a more efficient trip over the step up to a mile which is sure to suit, I think the mare should be capable of winning a handicap like this. Settle for Red returns from his foray to England and comes back to a mark in which he won off last year so he would rate the biggest danger.

The 7f Light Up Your Night Handicap looks another tricky affair with recent winner Twistsandturns entered, 7lb higher. Indian Landing was a fair 2^nd to Whailley last time out and Dashwood is sure to be at the front of the market, but I suspect he may be better over 6f on soft ground in the spring. Hilary commands respect only 5lb higher than when a comfortable winner here back in September but my idea of a winner very soon would be Burren View Lady. Ideally I’d like to see this mare in the lowest grade off her mark off 62 but she is now dangerously well handicapped for her shrewd trainer and the market could prove very informative. The 5yo wasn’t put into the race last time out, incurred traffic in the straight and I wouldn’t let recent form put you off.

Ned’s Indian is the class horse in the 10f handicap and the key to the Sabrina Harty gelding is the drop in trip from 12f. He has never won at further than 10f despite 8 attempts and still has a fine record of 5 wins from 25 starts. Last start he was going equally as well as Moonmeister at the top of the straight but his run flattened out. The average runs over further I feel inflate his price when he drops back to his optimum trip.

In the 47-65 version of the 10f handicap two horses catch the eye. Heart in the Air of Andy Oliver’s has a mark of 65 despite very nearly winning a competitive handicap in Navan off 64 recently and if she transferred that form it would nearly be good enough. The other is Empresario who has dropped to an attractive mark of 65. The Matthew Smith gelding is taking a serious drop in class here and showed some form last day staying on well behind Sharjah. He is a little lairy but should suit a big field and finds a nice opportunity here.