Monday 21 August 2017

The Ripple Effect

Tom Daley won the Diving World Championships in Budapest on Sunday the 23rd of July. He caused a real shock in doing so, beating fancied Chinese divers in the process. But this was no fluke, a score of 590.95 would have been enough to win last years Olympics in Rio. An Olympic Gold medal still the big goal for the Plymouth 23 year old. It should be enough to make the BBC Sports Personality shortlist of nominees in a quiet sporting year.

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Tom Daley's social media presence is huge. Only Joshua is in the same ball park with an impressive 4m followers on Instagram. Daley though is a well oiled PR machine. 2.65m twitter followers, 2.67m likes on facebook, 1.8m instagram followers and 485k subscribers on Youtube. A vlog of his world championship win has had 472k views. The diving sensation though has created more interest in himself outside of the pool, as in. 864k people have viewed his wedding video on youtube, the ad revenue from which will go to Switchboard LGBT charity. Daley married Dustin Lance Black this year, a Hollywood Screenwriter.


Anthony Joshua
Jermain
Defoe
Mo Farah
Chris Froome
Johanna Konta
Tom Daley
Twitter Followers
1.39m
959k
1.5m
1.37m
81k
2.65m
Facebook
Likes
2.2m
?
1.12m
564k
33k
2.67m
Instagram
Followers
4m
413k
608k
714k
86k
1.8m

Daley is a good looking chap who already had a huge following before coming out in 2013 as a gay man. This only heightened the interest in Daley and he's coped with the media really well it seems, coming across as really likeable. A trait I found is useful after getting Vardy wrong in 2016, backed in from big prices to a low of 2/1, the Leicester front man wasn't mapped with a pitiful vote on the night. 

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Anthony Joshua is a Rolls Royce of a man and now a World Heavyweight Champion. His performance to beat Wladimir Klitschko was epic. Daley's husband couldn't have scripted the drama that was like something out of a Rocky movie. Joshua is priced accordingly though at 4/9 best. No rematch before the awards is possible as Klitschko is retired. Jermain Defoe won't make the shortlist in my opinion. His popularity is not in question after acts of kindness with the late Bradley Lowery but maybe another recognition is more suitable. Mo Farah and Chris Froome are in the same boat for me, massive negatives. Their superb achievements in their sports have yet to see them even place in BBC SPOTY despite Tour de France wins and 5/10k doubles at the last two Olympics. When Mo completed the double double in 2016 in Rio he could only garner 55k votes, nearly 200k short of Andy Murray. Froome similarly getting 37k votes in 2013 and 39k in 2015 winning his first two Tour de France titles and not even nominated last year when winning his third. Another blog could be written on why they haven't done well; I suspect not being born in the UK, residing much of the year abroad and suspicion around whether they are competing clean the big drawbacks. Peaty is at the top of his event in swimming but only received 11k votes in 2016 when breaking 2 world records on the way to his Olympic 100m Breaststroke gold. 

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Since an all male contest in 2011 the organisers have changed who picks the shortlist and this probably ensures female representation. The field is not deep this year and neither is there many sporting events on for that to change. Andy Murray or Johanna Konta could win the US Open tennis but that's about it. If Tom Daley makes the shortlist and acknowledges it, his legion of fans and followers could cause a real upset on December 17th in Liverpool. Daley entered the pool with hardly any splash at all in July to make this possible, but the ripple effect may only be realised nearer the time when a likely viral campaign becomes apparent.    

Tom Daley is 100/1 with some big firms and top price 150/1 with another. He's much too big and could turn out to be the only real threat to Joshua for the gong. 

Wednesday 22 March 2017

Cheltenham Thoughts

A Change is as Good as a Rest 
Clondaw Warrior is a good example of how Willie Mullins can improve a horse. Gigginstown moved horses away from Mullins last September. Many of which went to Elliott, some to De Bromhead. De Bromhead has lost Potts horses to the Tizzards and Harringtons. Apples Jade, Supasundae and Sizing John all won for new handlers. The merry go round has only seemed positive to a lot of the horses sent to aforementioned trainers.
Post Nichols Canyon triumph in the Stayers Hurdle, Willie Mullins told Lydia Hislop on RUK how he had changed his work rider and stable in the lead up to the festival to improve his form. The change in routine worked the oracle, this was a interesting insight into one of the best trainers in Britain or Ireland.

Trainer Motivation
Trainer's can be creatures of habit. Often targetting races at local tracks, big prizes where they've had luck in the past or races that have deeper meaning to them, memorials etc. It's no secret how friendly the Harringtons and Hendersons are, sharing their homes for the week of Cheltenham and Punchestown respectively. Gordon Elliott learnt his trade when a rider for Martin Pipe, he has long targeted the race named after his old boss. It was remarkable then that both Gordon Elliott and Jessica Harrington would win races so important to them, the concluding two on the Friday, with 1 dart a piece.

Thanks be to the Loose Horse
Might Bite. What a performance, what a horse. I'm not quite looking forward to Cheltenham 2018 yet but I am giddy at the prospect of this screwball dominating the King George at Christmas. He didn't battle or eye Whisper, but decided to follow the loose Marinero who passed him at the ideal moment to allow time for the Scorpion to sicken Russell. Couldn't write it. And the gallant Pendra, denied by Domesday Book who consented to run on late when a loose horse ran in front leaving Gina Andrews elated. Reminder that horses are a herd animal and sometimes the more unique characters conform to what's natural, ironically.

Left Alone on the Lead 
Un de Sceaux and Special Tiara are breaking each others hearts for quite some time, taking each other on up front in races, softening each other up for the rest to pick up the pieces. Un de Sceaux may have made up Rubys mind for him, but it was telling these two great front runners were left alone on the lead and suceeded as a result. Dangerous when uncontested. Willoughby Court was an all the way winner in the Neptune, getting what I'd describe as a soft lead. Might Bite just put them all to the sword but then got bored. Horses that make all are rare around Prestbury Park. Being left unaccompanied though can be a big help.

JP's Wide Throughout
When re watching the races, I found myself writing this down on numerous occasions (when having a moment forgetting the name of what he actually owned). Zamdy Man, Edwulf (thankfully ok), Modus, No Comment and Castello Sforza gave the outside to noone. Must have had the Champion Hurdle winning owner pulling his hair out by the time the Martin Pipe came around.
The stands rail was popular on the new course, indeed some winners were succesful coming with their run against it. Ciaran Gethings on No Comment overdid this I thought however, losing significant ground aiming up the rail when those in the centre went clear by taking a straighter course.

10ml Watering Wednesday Night
This was a fair amount to put on. I can understand why. Welfare is most important but this was more than in the past. Selective watering took place last year on the same day and in year's gone by, 2/3ml was applied halfway through a dry meeting. Connections of good ground horses have a right to feel hard done by, but best to learn from it than complain about it looking forward as welfare trumps the preferred going of a group of horses every time. Might be worth stating what the clerk will aim for than the surprising figure we learned Thursday morning last, to the dismay of Cole Harden backers and unbridled joy of Un de Sceaux scarf makers.

Horses to follow
When reviewing the 28 races there was a mix of competitive, drama filled action (great for an eyecatcher or two), but there was also a fair share of uncomplicated races to read where the winner was much the best. So with that in consideration;

Winners Value for More

Labaik: Last to first off a steady gallop. Talented horse when he decides to jump.
Altior: Scampered up the hill, putting distance into his rivals after the last despite steady pace not seeing Hendersons star to best effect. Charbel was running a big race and would have made him work for it.
Tiger Roll: This was a remarkable performance. Absolutely clouted a few fences, was plenty keen for most of the way and still routed the field. Huge ability if staying up over marathon trips.
Might Bite: Monstrous effort, had good horses in trouble a long way out. Waywardness allowed them a sniff. Whisper it, wins the King George.
Flying Tiger: This barely made the cut as it suited to come off the pace here. But made a bad mistake coming down the hill, waited with in traffic, squeezed and still made lots of ground to win impressively.
Fayonagh: Missed the start, last to first, the 'flying mare' and Jamie Codd. Making ground like that off only a reasonable gallop was jaw dropping.
Presenting Percy: This laughed at the handicapper. Or should I say laughed at those laughing at the handicapper. Grade 1 races next surely.
Un de Sceaux: A length winner, value for 10 however. Came home well below par having gone so hard. Runaway with Ruby yet had done enough to last it out. Electric to watch.
Nichols Canyon: Like Causes of Causes, this is ominous. First try at the Stayers with a far from ideal prep, could this be the start of the domination of this division. Patiently ridden, when trained for 3 miles next season, could replicate his owners success in the race.
Road to Respect: RtR, We have a replacement for Road to Riches. Awkward at the first fence, tight to the last, the Noel Meade trained horse made a mockery of 145. Ryanair next year, couldn't have been more impressive.
Let's Dance: Ridden so patiently, overly so, that she did well in fact to scythe through the field so easily. It showed how much confidence Ruby had in her (and how little he had in Airlie Beach on the day). There was a heart stopping moment at the last when backers that it was Annie Power II but instead it was Quevega all over again.

Eyecatchers
Wicklow Brave: Blew he start and gave a high quality field 6l. Pace was not hectic granted which allowed him get back to the bunch. Tanked into the race down the hill on the outer, 3rd and threatened turning in before understandably flattenening out after getting tired.
Vroum Vroum Mag: Held up, as was Limini off a steady gallop. Wide throughout, worringly so at the turn at the top of the hill and into the straight. Tanked through the race and just failed. If Townend could go again I'd say he'd have won. She is the best mare in the race in my opinion.
Last Goodbye: Hampered by the Foxtail Hill fall, hampered again at the 2nd last, really caught the eye as bang in contention with every chance at the time. Still managed 5th despite it all. Small connections, while very shrewd means this may go under the radar at Punchestown. Deans Road and Powersbomb get honourable mentions and also go into the tracker for upcoming festivals.
Scoir Mear: Rory Delargy reported that his fancy for this race had travelled over poorly and not eaten up. Ridden cold at the rear of the Coral Cup field, where it suited to be prominent or tracking the pace, he came from an impossible position to be 5th. The combination of the run and the back story is enough to make him very interesting next time out.
Balnaslow: Very bad mistake at the 12th. Hit the last a belt. Went a good clip the whole way, jumping other than the two fences mentioned and travelling like a dream for Derek O'Connor. While Katie Walsh would love another go on Wonderful Charm I'm sure, Balnaslow seems the more underrated post race. The moral winner for me, yet only finished 5th. Could be a big price at Aintree or Punchestown.
Calipto: Jumping a worry but was out of his ground in the Grand Annual, stayed on very well late on after a mistake at a crucial time at the 3rd last.

Honourable mentions to; Ballyandy, Capital Force, Charbel, Cloudy Dream, Vintage Clouds, Arbre de Vie, Haymount, Neon Wolf, Burbank, Mr Miyagi, Divin Bere, Dino Velvet, And the New, Electric Concorde, Sugar Baron, Ex Patriot, L'Ami Serge, The Worlds End, Constantine Bay, Bristol De Mai, Ballyhill, Thomas Campbell, Croco Bay.