Too early to tell if apprentice will overtake the master

Disastrous start to the tipping for the new season – anyone who replicated this bloggers’ bets lost 2.5 points last weekend. Manchester United were the only positive result. All the other games ended in draws. To be honest this is the reason I dislike betting on football – it is a proper three horse race. Rugby on the other hand virtually removes the draw.

Alex Ferguson won the first battle in what will hopefully be a long war with Jose Mourinho’s protégé Andre Villa Boas. The premiership could do with a rivalry as intense as the Mourinho-Ferguson one.

Chelsea and United are in my opinion the only teams who will this year’s trophy – so effectively the Reds have a two point head start. This should not be underestimated: two points gained now is the same as two points won on the last day of the season, they are both added to a club’s final tally.

Before sitting down to write this edition of the blog, I watched the second leg of the Spanish Super Cup (Barca-Real). Unfortunately, I was at work so I could not give it my full attention, but it looked an exciting game. Barcelona lead 2-1 at half time, Real equalised, before Lionel Messi scored the winner, 2 minutes from time. Once again though ugly scenes marred the fixture – Marcelo received a red card for a horrible tackle on Cesc Fabregas, unfortunately for the Madrid man, the referee was not an Arsenal fan.

The game then experienced a nasty “brawl” with 22 on-field players, the management and substitutes getting involved just off the pitch. Soccer is perhaps the only sport, where brawl could be written in inverted comas, no one was hurt, not one punch was thrown, however there was some heated pushing and shoving, Mehmut Ozil got sent off for his part in the charade.

La Liga still has nothing to offer in comparison to the premiership: the big two are so far ahead of their rivals that the two “el clasico” games are the only ones worth watching. However both of these sides will play a big part in the Champions League, hence it is satisfying to see that Real look like a serious force this season and Barcelona are as good as ever.

Full steam ahead to RWC 2011

Ireland lost their second rugby international in a row, 19 – 12 against France in Bordeaux, last Saturday evening. This was the last game of the world cup build-up where performance outweighs the result. The reverse fixture against the French, this Saturday, is all about winning.

The team played well in the second half and could have easily taken a massive scalp – Ireland should overcome France at home and minus 3points at 10 to 11 is my pick of the week. Unlike last weekend the side picked, is close to a first-choice fifteen, there is still the Sexton – O’Gara debate, however rotation means that Sexton is in the hot-seat this weekend. Likewise O’Leary’s selection could be argued, but he is definitely the manager’s first choice.

Ireland won the second half, last Saturday, and should take that momentum into the home game. If Ireland win and then beat England seven days later, they will get on the plane with serious plans about topping their group and reaching the semi-finals.

Declan Kidney announces his world cup 30, on Monday. Peter Stringer has not made the squad for either the France game nor for the test against Connaught. His international career is probably over. This is absolutely absurd given that in my opinion, he should be a serious contender for the nine shirt against Australia. Stringer’s experience alone should have assured him of a place in the squad.

It is sad to see that young Conor Murray does not make the squad for the international and is instead the replacement nine for the game against Connacht. He played well for twenty minutes against France, but it looks like he is the fourth choice scrum half – only three will be selected in the touring party.

The first choice front row, for the world cup, will be Mike Ross, Best or Flannery and Cian Healy. Ross, Best, Healy have been chosen against France. The scrum is one of the few areas where Ireland believe they can trouble Australia. These three should spend every second prior to that game practicing their technique, to the point where they are uninvolved in other aspects of training.

England ripped the Wallabies apart, in this facet of the game, at the last world cup. If Ireland could win numerous penalties at the scrum, it would demoralise the opposition and turn this into an ugly, but winnable contest. Even when Australia trashed France 59-16, last November, they conceded a penalty try at the scrum.

There is no point running the Wallabies close in an open game, which happened in 2003.

That is all for this edition, kind of a two in one, remember tip of the week is Ireland minus 3 points to beat France (10 to 11). This tip is also being promoted because France have made 13 changes to the side that played Ireland last week. I think the bookies are focusing too much on the fact that Ireland have a dismal record against the French. The side put out by Kidney should be stronger than that of the French and Ireland need the win more.

M.C.

The Gaffer

In 2002 under the glare of 60,000 Dublin fans along with a smattering of Donegal fans, Jim McGuinness pleaded with referee Pat Mc Enaney for a free that never came. The moment stuck in my head as here was Donegals one true warrior searching for help. It was an ominous sign of what was to come. The game is remembered by Donegal fans as "the morning after". Famously six days previous, Donegal had drawn with Dublin in an epic All-Ireland Quarter Final. The team (and most fans) then proceeded to go on the lash for the next week. While this story has undoubtedly been blown way out of proportion, the performance the following week was well below the fare served up the week previous. However what it did highlight was the attitude among the players, that they were happy with an Ulster Final appearance and a draw against Dublin.

That team was potentially more talented then the current cohorts but they lacked the required mentality to succeed at a higher level. Similar only twelve months ago as the team bowed meekly from the Championship at the hands of Armagh people continued to ask the question of Donegal's mentalilty. What then has happened to turn this team of party animals into a well drilled, organised and mentally tough side? The answer is Jim McGuinness.

Having watched Donegal since in the mid-nineties, two things have been consistently obvious. One was that we never had a game plan and secondly that the team wasn't blessed with a never say die attitude of say an Armagh. While I don't mean to put down the teams of this era - the first 20 minutes of the second half of the 2003 All Ireland Quarter Final against Galway in Castlebar is still the best I've ever seen a Donegal side play - their success was borne from raw talent. In the aftermath of one of many humbling we've received - a qualifier loss to Cavan was particilily galling - the underlying feeling was never of despondency in the team but of the performance. If only somebody could come in and show the players they were letting Ulster titles and All-Irelands slip away, we'd be a formidable outfit. However, for whatever reason even great bainisteoiri like Mickey Moran and Brian McIvor, couldn't tame the wild beast. 

McGuinness has chiseled the raw talent at his disposal into a well oiled machine. In unison with the organisational side of things he's instilled an inner belief in the players. Last June against Down, early in the second half Donegal got into a commanding position without kicking on. Players seemed afraid to take shots on and this resulted in a game of hot potato on the Down '45. Even in the final minute when they needed a score to tie it up players passed the burden until Rory Kavanagh kicked a fine score. (His point that day illustrated the issue of this blog, the talent was/is there, it's the other components that are lacking).Compare this to the Kildare game where Kevin Cassidy stepped up with the game on the line and took the shot on. Where was he against Down? He hasn't suddenly become a good striker of the ball but he now wants to put his neck on the line. Bravery in sporting situations is not going in for the big tackle but in executing skills when the pressure is at its most intense. Being prepared to miss and take the blame that goes with that, is what Cassidy really done when he threw boot to ball.

In University I was a member of a group who presented a lecture on why we thought Warren Gatland was basically the dogs bollox of rugby management. He had taken a team who conceded four tries against Fiji to eliminate themselves from the World Cup and made them Grand Slam champions within six months conceding a record breaking two tries over the course of the whole Six Nations.While this achievement is noteworthy, fast forward three years and Gatland has never been able to reach these peaks again. History is littered with managers who thought they created kingdoms only to quickly realise it was little more then a fiefdom and the king came looking for the rent. In an era when sports teams invest millions in analytics, successful strategies are copied and better quickly. Great managers appreciate this and constantly tweak their approach slightly - even when their team is winning. Gatland failed to do this, as did Joe Kernan. This challenge is going to quickly fall at McGuinness' door. Passing this challenge will not only see him leading the Sons of Tir Connail up the steps of the Hogan Stand but will give him entry to the select club of truly great managers.

Seamus McDaid is an out of work sports agent living in New York City. Follow me @fbspecial.