Imagine being a manager of the third most valuable and fifth richest football club on the planet. Imagine having won three league titles, four FA Cups, and having reached the final of the Champion’s League. Imagine having set the record for longest undefeated run in Premiership history. Finally, imagine having done this all on a shoestring budget while still keeping one’s club insanely profitable. Welcome to the world of Arsène Wenger.
After Alex Ferguson, Wenger is both the longest-serving and most successful manager in the Premiership. It is no exaggeration to say that he has overseen a revolution in footballing tactics. Before Barcelona, it was Arsenal who pioneered the practice of developing youth talent from across the world. Under Wenger’s stewardship, the team have finally shed the “boring, boring Arsenal” image that dogged them for much of their history. Perhaps most incredibly, he remains the only manager to last a Premiership season without losing a match.
Unfortunately, for all this, Wenger has done little in recent years. His team has played some very telegenic football and notched up some great games, but has signally failed to deliver on the silverware front. As a result, it may be time for Arsenal fans to start considering what the post-Wenger future may be like.
Some days back, another writer on this site pointed out that 25/1 on Arsene Wenger being the first Premiership manager to be shown the door was excellent value. While this may be premature (it takes a truly awful run of form for a big club to sack a manager mid-season, unless they happen to manage Chelsea, and Wenger's unique style will be very difficult for another man to replicate), there is no doubt that, for the first time in over a decade, Arsenal's fans are beginning to become unsettled about their manager. When a club's fans chant "Spend some f**king money", one can deduce that something is not right. The situation isn't helped by the fact that the club is awash with cash. Aside from the globalised brand, the club also boasts the highest ticket prices in football, and a 5-year barren streak makes this seem like successively worse value with each passing season.
In one sense, Wenger has been unfortunate. His strategy of seeking value for money was exactly what clubs needed in the 1990's and early part of the last decade, particularly when the first transfer bubble burst. Back then, a little money went a long way. Thierry Henry was purchased in 1999 for £11 million. Marc Overmars cost half that. Most famously of all, Nicolas Anelka, purchased in 1997 for £500,000, was sold to Real Madrid two years later for £22.3m. However, the relentless flow of money into the game has changed that. Arsenal, once undoubtedly the best or second-best team in England, now found themselves displaced, first by Chelsea, and now by Manchester City. Money simply won’t go as far as it once did. Whereas £11m once bought a World Cup winning striker at the peak of his game, now it buys Gervinho, who has lots of potential, but little else.
However, that only tells part of the story. Arsenal, after all, has its own billionaire owners, in the shape of Stan Kroenke and Alisher Usmanov. They have indicated that they are willing to plough in the necessary funds. In addition, the club has raised plenty of transfer revenue, and with its low outgoings relative to other teams, it should be able to pay the necessary amounts. Most of the blame for Arsenal’s failure to adapt must therefore be laid at the feet of Wenger himself.
Why, then, has Wenger been so parsimonious with the purse-strings? Two answers stand out. The first is that for all his vaunted ability to acquire bargain-basement deals, he hasn’t been too successful with bigger purchases. Granted, there have been the Henrys and the Nasris, but there have also been the likes of Sylvain Wiltord, Francis Jeffers, and Jose Reyes, none of whom managed much. But more important than that is Wenger’s changed ethos. He wants to build a team, not buy one. The team that reached the 2006 Champion’s League final cost a pittance compared to that of their rivals. For Wenger, a man who had scaled almost every height using conventional means, this was a way of bringing on a new challenge.
The problem is that this has now come unstuck. Cesc Fabregas leaving was inevitable, and not a product of any financial constraints. After all, one never truly owns an alumnus of la Masia, one merely rents them till Barcelona wants them back. More worrying is the fate of Samir Nasri.
Generally, Arsenal have been able to get away with lower wages than other clubs for a couple of reasons. Firstly, there wasn’t that great a differential until recently. Secondly, Wenger’s policy of hiring youths reduced the wage bill. After all, a player signing his first professional contract neither has much negotiating room or, for that matter, any idea of what he’s worth. Finally, they were a club who brought home silverware and guaranteed their players a place in the Champions’ League.
The problem is that, in the past ten years, Arsenal’s wage controls have caused its paying power to slip further down the ladder. Chelsea’s aggregate wage bill is now twice Arsenal’s, who now also lag Manchesters United and City, as well as Liverpool. Meanwhile, Arsenal came fourth last year, and are consequently only into the preliminary stages of the Champions’ League. A disappointing home game last Tuesday sees them going to Udinese next week holding onto a solitary goal lead. A few years ago, a game against the likes of Udinese would be little more than a formality, a way perhaps of blooding a few youngsters following a crushing home win. Now, it promises to be a challenge, a challenge that Arsenal may yet come off second best from.
It is telling that the first rumours that Nasri might be leaving Arsenal came not from an enquiry or expression of interest from another team, but from Nasri enquiring about whether there was another team interested in him, specifically Manchester United. It appears that, with the retirement of Paul Scholes last season Nasri came to the conclusion that there might be an opening with better prospects. Arsenal have pointedly refused to match his salary demands, but others will. With United apparently losing interest, it appears that Nasri may instead be on his way to City instead.
The above is indicative of a perception shift. Last season, for the first time in living memory, Manchester City finished ahead of Arsenal. This year, the smart money is that the result will be repeated. The best Arsenal can realistically hope for this year is fourth. Nasri was motivated not just by money, but by prospects. The danger for Wenger is that other players may follow his lead.
Arsenal is a veritable reservoir of talent. The problem is that this talent is both young and, relative to the rest of the top teams, poorly paid. Without the promise of prospects, those players may well up sticks for greener pastures. Arsenal is in danger of becoming like Porto or PSV, a club with a brilliant youth and scout system, that simply cannot afford to hold onto its players, and ends up a glorified feeder club.
Of course, this is easily avoidable, if only Wenger would loosen his purse strings and make a few big signings. At time of writing, his top signing this summer, Gervinho, is suspended. In the league, Arsenal are on one point out of a possible six. They have just suffered a humiliating home defeat against a resurgent Liverpool, who are casting avaracious eyes on Arsenal’s Champions’ League spot. Arsenal missing out on that could trigger another exodus next summer. And it would, in all likelihood, seal Wenger’s fate. For Arsène Wenger, the time has come to choose between the principles he holds dear, and getting the players his team badly needs to retain its status.
Post by Greg Bowler.
