Gold Cup Day

Exhausted, emotional and confused after 3 long days. But as Catch Me did not get up under AP in the 2nd today we are still in the game. 2 winning days were followed by a shocker today both as a layer and a bettor. As a bookmaker the Pertemps was the only race we didn't lose on the day. Some relief, the audacious gamble on the JP owned Catch Me just fell short. Big Bucks broke the hearts of Willie Mullins trio and Henderson's Oscar Whisky in the World hurdle today in awesome style. Case closed, he is the greatest stayer of all time! How folly of me to doubt him. Andrew Lynch rode a wonderful race to challenge last on Voler La Vedette, switching to the outside of Big Bucks as he veered left, whilst trying not to eyeball the Dicheat machine. All in vein. Ruby did it the hard way today. Big Bucks was nearly at his most impressive, even after all this time.

A brief few thoughts on Day 4 
Triumph is double dutch to me. Take Countrywide Flame to enjoy better galloping test on good ground ew.

County Hurdle I fancy an Irish winner. Citizenship's form is working out fantastically and I also like the smooth travelling and pacey Redera ew with most firms paying 5 places.


Boston Bob will be the Irish banker on Day 4 in the Albert Bartlett. He excites all the Mullins team but his price reflects the hype.Reminds me of pre So Young last year in the Neptune. I'll take the hugely impressive Brindisi Breeze last time out ew for some value.

Gold Cup 2012
1 Burton Port    Small solid stayer. Jumps well. Stable Flying. Should be placed at least.
2 Carruthers  Quality handiacpper. Races prominently. Good jumper. Not good enough.
3 China Rock  Classy type. Hasn't been himself lately. Excuse latest. Travel real well, won't stay.
4 Diamond Harry  Fragile Horse. V good on his day. Badly out of form. Not the biggest shock though.
5 Kauto Star  Different horse this year. Handling races well, staying gallantly, best form. Nicholls form?
6 Knockara Beau Stays well.Solid handicapper with some excellent hurdling form.Held by Midnight Ch'
7 Long Run  Looks sluggish this year,Jockey the same! Still should be good enough.Henderson......
8 Midnight Chase  Interesting in a poor Gold Cup if soft lead. Won't get breather though.
9 Quel Esprit  Thought Hennessy was awful.Tired horse after.Yet some judges make a case.Surely not
10 Synchronised Impressed by the manner of his victory lto more than the form. If it rains, charge ew
11 The Giant Bolster Solid Handicapper. Am I repeating myself. Cheltenham specialist. Cool Dawn stuff
12  The Midnight Club  Will be staying on. Needs them to go around again though.Out to nick a place
13 Time for Rupert Classy type on his day.Has lost his way.Needs to find himself!Not biggest shock
14 Weird Al  More realistic. Goes well fresh. Unexposed at top class. Short enough now.
15 What a Friend Will travel well.Finds little.Ran well last year.But his lack of battle, place at best.

Conclusion; Do you notice all the negatives! It's that sort of race. Mad to take on Long Run and Kauto Star but by the time you go down through them, process of elimination, your left with nothing! Kauto Star is best this year. If not for age, suspect 3m2f in Gold Cup and Nicholls stable form he'd be the most likely winner by a way. Are we worried about him and the hill or is that bolony?! Twice gold cup winner and all that. Was it his class that made up for lack of stamina all along. This year stamina looks his forte. Long Run should be improving or at least at his peak, but he's been poor this year. If he turns up 100% he wins. I used to defend Sam Waley Cohen. But 2/1 about him this year. Ruby's made him look ridiculous, especially in Haydock. Need to have a bet?! Suppose Burton Port should be placed. Barry Geraghty and Nicky Henderson. Trainer tick, Jockey tick, Recent form tick, Stamina tick, jumping tick, Class; does it matter this year...... Burton Port ew  To make up for spilt whisky today!
Maybe China Rock back to lay. Forget last run, too keen, jumped poorly. Expect him to travel well tomorrow but stamina will be an issue, get out before the hill!!


Foxhunters
Prefer the Irish form. Salsify 1/4 1-4 looks very fair bet.

Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Hurdle
Dan Breen and Grandads horse each way. Tough tough race

Grand Annual
Kid Cassidy reading between the lines has been AP's idea of a Cheltenham winner for the past few months. Excited by the prospect of a big field in a handicap going a proper gallop. This may bring out the fact that he's well handicapped. His jumping has got better but is still a worry. So maybe not an each way proposition but win. I'll take Eradicate to fly up the hill for Henderson, again. He is a hardened handicappper that like Kid Cassidy will appreciate the rough and tumble of a festival race, and the good ground.

Weight of the World on his Withers

Thursday - Cheltenham - Day 3

1.30 Jewson Novices Chase
Peddlers Cross is joint favourite here for on fire trainer Donald McCain. One has to respect his decision to go for the Jewson instead of the RSA. In hindsight he's probably right as not much would have put it up to Bobs Worth and First Lieutenant today. He's won a Neptune and been second in a Champion Hurdle, his two chasing debuts were full of potential and satisfaction for connections. It's went a bit pear shaped since then but the price has room allowed for this. At 7/2, it's big enough for me to trust McCain has produced the horse to peak once again at the festival. A clean round and I feel he's the best horse in the race. Sir Des Champs is respected but is skinny enough while For Non Stop and Michael Flips are interesting at the prices.

2.05 Pertemps Final
The money horse all week has been once Champion Hurdle contender Catch Me. 25's to 12s he is certainly well enough handicapped on old form to win. It's been 3 and a half years since he's won though and the value has gone out of the price to be joining the charge late on. Sonofvic strikes me as potentially progressive but the fact that Ruby doesn't ride is a negative. The best have chose wrong before though so I'll include the Nicholls charge. Pineau De Rea is the other horse I think could be ahead of the handicap and a very big price. Fenton's charge should love the ground.

2.40 Ryanair
It's unreal how competitive this race is. You could pour over it for hours and find an angle for every different horse in the race. The point is though that there is nothing between them and how the race is run, tactics and jumping will win the day. Rubi Light would be the choice if any juice in the ground. Otherwise tentatively I reckon Noble Prince will run a place because of the ground and his run style, and possible improvement from a recent wind op. Somersby should of ran in the Champion Chase.

3.15 World Hurdle

When I look at this race I think that about 6 horses are value other than the favourite, meaning only one thing. They can't all win but the favourite is too short. Big Buck's been imperious but he faces his toughest challenge yet. Oscar Whiskey, whose form was franked from the Relkeel hurdle today by GMOOH and Cockney Trucker is a classy hurdler who could bridge the gap between class and stamina needed in the cocktail needed to beat beat Big Bucks.He holds Thousand Stars( County Hurdle winner) up to 2m4f but 3m will be interesting. It's plausible though Oscar Whiskey has improved this year and is a stronger proposition ready to hit heights in the 3m division.



So Young is very intriguing to in his first try in the deep end this year. An old cliche but he could be anything.Only for a momentum stopping mistake last year he could have won the Neptune, where he was third to First Lieutenant and Rock on Ruby. He's had an easy year picking off prizemoney for often little more than a gallop so So Young is a fresh horse returning for another crack at the festival. One race he beat Trifolium well on soft ground over 2m which was not nothing either.
I'm really keen to take on Big Bucks. From Oscar Whisky,So Young and Thousand Stars he has real challenge to his crown. The race has real depth as well with Dynaste, Mourad, Voler La Vedette, Carlito Brigante and Mikael D'Haguenet with real place prospects.
Oscar Whisky rates as a cracking each way bet tomorrow at 9/2. Only worry is that he fell when looking like going to win versus Overturn at Christmas, made mistakes early in last years Champion and late on in the previous year's Supreme. On the up side he may jump better over 3 miles. So Young each way without Big Bucks looks a bet also. But mainly I'll be laying Big Bucks for my small lot at 8/13 or so.



All that said, of course Big Bucks can win tomorrow, I just think he's far too short. If he does his status will go from one of the best, to the greatest ever stayer in my opinion. I'm willing to take that chance. The pressure of the world may prove to much for 4th time.

Interesting to note that maybe tomorrow the opposite will happen to the cliche norm.......In running punters often brag correctly that they backed Big Bucks at enhanced odds in running when he hit his notorious flat spot and still wins. During the percieved 'flat spot' tomorrow in may infact be the 'fatal spot' in the race to regain his crown. And if he were to be beaten, value may be had in running against him too. Punters may not judge the race on it's merits but may be willing and ready to take bigger prices no matter what the circumstances.

4.00 Byrne Group Plate
Glam Gerry and Hectors Choice are taken against the field.

4.40 Kim Muir
Midnight Appeal the tentative selection.

Grand Renewal

Wednesday -Day 2

Quick ground is expected as the drying course gets no water overnight. I'm short on time but I fancy tomorrow's card as a bookmaker. That said, there are plenty of offers to make up for some of the difficulties of the contests.

1.30 The 4 Miler
Between TeaforThree and Allez Garde for me. Either running well would give a boost to Join Together and/or First Lieutenant in the RSA. TeaforThree is a gorgeous type who is preferred if handling the ground, he will love the trip.

2.05 Neptune Novices Hurdle
Still reeling Fingal Bay hasn't made it.....How far?!  We have what we have though and I'm not inspired. The market is latching on to Simonsig and he is priced on potential. Sous Les Cieux is also priced on potential. I suppose if Monksland was trained by WP Mullins he'd be 3's but I'm still not convinced by trainer record and other factor's. I hope for a result. Benefficient is probably overpriced and may be an ew poke.

2.40 RSA Chase
What a renewal. This is a corker. Grand Crus running here has gave it a serious shot in the arm. I am however happy to lay him. The one I am most happy yo take him on with is First Lieutenant. I was with the Gigginstown Stud horse ante post in the winter at 14s and 16s knowing full well to draw a line through poor runs on soft ground. The subsequent collapse in price due to various tipsters putting him up as their selections though made me change my mind. Even up until days ago I considered him short enough considering he's had his problems( bled and back problems). Tomorrow though on further examination; he's ticking a hell of a lot of boxes. Ground, Course Form, Festival Form ( Rock on Ruby finished behind him in the Neptune last year!) and I'm happy to take the trainer's assurances he's back in good form. The jockey is as good a big day rider as you'll get. He is becoming more attractive nearer the race. Bobs worth going left handed on a course he loves will be a different proposition. He is a worthy main protagonist. Join Together is potentially very good and should enjoy the spring ground. All in all the depth of the race leaves me willing to take on Grand Crus at 6/4 or shorter. The race might be run to suit Mouse Morris' trained charge and in a late u-turn he is my selection.


Champion Chase
In my opinion the prices are bang on and I cant get enthusiastic about it for a bet. Evs is a fair price Sizing europe. If you thought Kauto Stone would handle quicker ground he may be ew value. No bet.

Coral Cup
Balgarry could be chucked in and would have to earn a 1pt win at around 7s. Others that interest me are Veiled and Megastar. 5 places ew about the latter 2 may represent value.

Fred Winter
Nil is agam

Champion Bumpion
Lazy selections the highly regarded The New One and the horse in the field most likely to run it's race is the rack solid Jezki, who has the best form in the book for me.

Happy punting.

Flying with the Wind

Day one. One thirty. The roar of the crowd. It doesn't get much better than this.

Supreme Novices 1.30

The JP McManus owned Darlan is favourite here at 5/1. There is fierce good vibes coming from the Henderson and McManus camp;fuelled by the Preview evening cicuit, where Geraghty has rated him well better than Tetlami, Frank Berry’s best idea of a JP winner and different pundits saying what price would he be had he not fallen when travelling well in the Betfair hurdle. All fair points but he is nearly priced on potential rather than what he’s done.

Steps to Freedom has winning course form and has plenty of good flat, bumper and hurdle form in the book. His layoff is a worried but by all accounts by design. I love it’s trainer Jessica Harrington and trust her to have the Statue of Liberty gelding ready to thrive. One bit of news that it hammered Oscar Wells in apiece of work last week has seen the price tumble, but if the video is true,then it had to tumble! Bear in mind though Oscar Wells is not a great workhorse at home.

The joker in the pack may be Dylan Ross trained by Noel Meade. Joker in more ways than one. 2^nd I don’t know how many times, this horse excites his trainer and especially Paul Carberry. This year he only got goodish ground once and ran a cracker 2^nd to Cash and Go (absent) at Leopardstown at Christmas. He is supposed to have had a breathing operation which may help him to finish out his races somewhat better. This horse will not love the hill! But Carberry will ride him to sleep to finish in the best possible position at the end, and therefore makes him a corking each bet at the somewhat disrespectful price of 40/1 with some firms at present. He should travel like a dream and make for a bet to lay option in running. Carberry holds him in high regards which makes me keep the faith with him tomorrow. Better ground and a big pace to run at will help greatly.With a bit of luck PC can give punters heart palpitations all over again with a Harchibald style spin. The owners from Clogherhead have a right to be full of hope heading over, what a thrill it is to have a runner in the opener.

Midnight Game, who defeated Dylan Ross in Navan would be a real contender in my opinion until the news that he has worked bad in the immediate run up to the race, hence the drift. Previously his work at home was electric (according to D Russell) who now rides safer proposition Trifolium whose recent form has worked out giving him an each way chance.

Selection  Steps to Freedom win, Dylan Ross each way.

Arkle

The mighty Sprinter Sacre is barely odds on in this hot, all be it thin renewal. He looks a machine. Could a wind operation have made him bomb proof or does it matter that he’s that good over fences anyway. The punters of Al Ferof at 5/1 each way ¼ 1,2,3 will not fret no matter what happens. He is sure to run his race, be staying on up the hill and if something gets into a battle with the gallant grey, they’ll most likely come out the worst. The key to this race is Cue Card. If he leads at a fast pace, he will run himself into the ground, slit throats with Menorah and most likely set the race up for Henderson’s hotpot. If he were to take a lead, it’s the only way I see him winning and alternatively Sprinter Sacre being beaten. As Geraghty’s mount may be free with a slow gallop or a horse upsides getting him to race early. Menorah has the raw pace for an arkle making him a win proposition but jumping puts me off. Taking the Tizzards on the word I reckon they will set it up for Sprinter Sacre putting in a big display. I’d be surprised if Cue Card and Menorah both got round but I hope I’m wrong.

 

Selection; Sprinter Sacre   (Take the industry biggest in morning as they are ferociously competing for everyones business and I can see him going off 4/6 or 8/13)

Champion Hurdle

Another Grade One, another wind op. Has Binoculars recent procedure brought him back to his best. I’m willing to think not and happy to lay him at the current prices. He however is a class jumper on his day, cat like, just like Ireland’s banker Hurricane Fly. I cannot fault this horse. His price is about right. He’s been as impressive this year as any. Ruby will ride him to perfection and he is a bit special. That said; my idea of a bet in the race is Zarkandar each way. I like his profile. Course winner, stayer, in good recent form winning despite a slow pace in Newbury when Darlan fell. Most importantly of all though is that Zarkandar, we are told by Paul Nicholls will improve bundles for that run and will improve also for a stronger pace. He is a similar type to proven course winner and stablemate Rock on Ruby. Oscar Wells is an awkard enough jumper but will also improve for quicker ground and has a big engine. His price is about right now but wouldn’t be surprised if it ran a place. Zaidpour is only running as ground will be at its softest all week than, not soft enough however for this classy type Kalann not the worst 200/1 shot that ever ran and Overturn at big prices are perfectly acceptable as the throwaway bets each way.

Selection:  Zarkandar ew

JLT Speciality Handicap Chase 2.40

Quantitative Easing, Baile Anrai and Fruity O’Rooney ew    Selection the latter

Glenfarclas Cross Country  4.00

This is run in the centre of the course and as they are unable to water it will be firm. Looking for good ground specialists in this it surprised me that many handle firm. Scotsirish is fav as he is classier over chase fences but that mightn’t be reason enough to make him favourite for this unique test. My only thoughts are that Uncle Junior should run a big race have taking kindly to cross country (what better prepation than Tramore!)

Otherwise I think Garde Champetre is a place lay as his best days are behind him and he’d appreciate a cut in the ground.

Selection ; Uncle Junior ew if 16 run, lay Garde Champetre place

OLBG Mares Hurdle

Quevega is miles clear once again on form book and is a very fair price at 1-2. She has taken liberty at her hurdles in the past though and news of her making a bad mistake schooling last week doesn’t inspire. Race rustyness with her jumping a slight negative. Once she doesn’t come down though she’ll still win. Backers might want to take 1/3 faller insurance if they really want to play. The scrap for places is really competitive. Baby Shine is progressive and may run well at a price. 

Selection; No Bet

Pulteney Novice Handicap Chase

Hunt Ball is really progressive and its form is working out a treat.

The selection; in a really tough handicap.

Kingbet are ¼ the odds all races at Cheltenham.

Kingbet are money back if your horse is 2^nd in the Supreme on singles to a €100 max.

Extra Placings, enhaced prices will be available in the shop from 8am each morning.

Good luck and enjoy for me the greatest week in horseracing.

Peter Kingston

Feel free to leave your thoughts and tips below in a comment!