Monday, 12 March 2012

Flying with the Wind

Day one. One thirty. The roar of the crowd. It doesn't get much better than this.

Supreme Novices 1.30

The JP McManus owned Darlan is favourite here at 5/1. There is fierce good vibes coming from the Henderson and McManus camp;fuelled by the Preview evening cicuit, where Geraghty has rated him well better than Tetlami, Frank Berry’s best idea of a JP winner and different pundits saying what price would he be had he not fallen when travelling well in the Betfair hurdle. All fair points but he is nearly priced on potential rather than what he’s done.
Steps to Freedom has winning course form and has plenty of good flat, bumper and hurdle form in the book. His layoff is a worried but by all accounts by design. I love it’s trainer Jessica Harrington and trust her to have the Statue of Liberty gelding ready to thrive. One bit of news that it hammered Oscar Wells in apiece of work last week has seen the price tumble, but if the video is true,then it had to tumble! Bear in mind though Oscar Wells is not a great workhorse at home.

The joker in the pack may be Dylan Ross trained by Noel Meade. Joker in more ways than one. 2nd I don’t know how many times, this horse excites his trainer and especially Paul Carberry. This year he only got goodish ground once and ran a cracker 2nd to Cash and Go (absent) at Leopardstown at Christmas. He is supposed to have had a breathing operation which may help him to finish out his races somewhat better. This horse will not love the hill! But Carberry will ride him to sleep to finish in the best possible position at the end, and therefore makes him a corking each bet at the somewhat disrespectful price of 40/1 with some firms at present. He should travel like a dream and make for a bet to lay option in running. Carberry holds him in high regards which makes me keep the faith with him tomorrow. Better ground and a big pace to run at will help greatly.With a bit of luck PC can give punters heart palpitations all over again with a Harchibald style spin. The owners from Clogherhead have a right to be full of hope heading over, what a thrill it is to have a runner in the opener.
Midnight Game, who defeated Dylan Ross in Navan would be a real contender in my opinion until the news that he has worked bad in the immediate run up to the race, hence the drift. Previously his work at home was electric (according to D Russell) who now rides safer proposition Trifolium whose recent form has worked out giving him an each way chance.

Selection  Steps to Freedom win, Dylan Ross each way.

Arkle

The mighty Sprinter Sacre is barely odds on in this hot, all be it thin renewal. He looks a machine. Could a wind operation have made him bomb proof or does it matter that he’s that good over fences anyway. The punters of Al Ferof at 5/1 each way ¼ 1,2,3 will not fret no matter what happens. He is sure to run his race, be staying on up the hill and if something gets into a battle with the gallant grey, they’ll most likely come out the worst. The key to this race is Cue Card. If he leads at a fast pace, he will run himself into the ground, slit throats with Menorah and most likely set the race up for Henderson’s hotpot. If he were to take a lead, it’s the only way I see him winning and alternatively Sprinter Sacre being beaten. As Geraghty’s mount may be free with a slow gallop or a horse upsides getting him to race early. Menorah has the raw pace for an arkle making him a win proposition but jumping puts me off. Taking the Tizzards on the word I reckon they will set it up for Sprinter Sacre putting in a big display. I’d be surprised if Cue Card and Menorah both got round but I hope I’m wrong.
 
Selection; Sprinter Sacre   (Take the industry biggest in morning as they are ferociously competing for everyones business and I can see him going off 4/6 or 8/13)

Champion Hurdle

Another Grade One, another wind op. Has Binoculars recent procedure brought him back to his best. I’m willing to think not and happy to lay him at the current prices. He however is a class jumper on his day, cat like, just like Ireland’s banker Hurricane Fly. I cannot fault this horse. His price is about right. He’s been as impressive this year as any. Ruby will ride him to perfection and he is a bit special. That said; my idea of a bet in the race is Zarkandar each way. I like his profile. Course winner, stayer, in good recent form winning despite a slow pace in Newbury when Darlan fell. Most importantly of all though is that Zarkandar, we are told by Paul Nicholls will improve bundles for that run and will improve also for a stronger pace. He is a similar type to proven course winner and stablemate Rock on Ruby. Oscar Wells is an awkard enough jumper but will also improve for quicker ground and has a big engine. His price is about right now but wouldn’t be surprised if it ran a place. Zaidpour is only running as ground will be at its softest all week than, not soft enough however for this classy type Kalann not the worst 200/1 shot that ever ran and Overturn at big prices are perfectly acceptable as the throwaway bets each way.

Selection:  Zarkandar ew


JLT Speciality Handicap Chase 2.40
Quantitative Easing, Baile Anrai and Fruity O’Rooney ew    Selection the latter

Glenfarclas Cross Country  4.00
This is run in the centre of the course and as they are unable to water it will be firm. Looking for good ground specialists in this it surprised me that many handle firm. Scotsirish is fav as he is classier over chase fences but that mightn’t be reason enough to make him favourite for this unique test. My only thoughts are that Uncle Junior should run a big race have taking kindly to cross country (what better prepation than Tramore!)
Otherwise I think Garde Champetre is a place lay as his best days are behind him and he’d appreciate a cut in the ground.
Selection ; Uncle Junior ew if 16 run, lay Garde Champetre place

OLBG Mares Hurdle
Quevega is miles clear once again on form book and is a very fair price at 1-2. She has taken liberty at her hurdles in the past though and news of her making a bad mistake schooling last week doesn’t inspire. Race rustyness with her jumping a slight negative. Once she doesn’t come down though she’ll still win. Backers might want to take 1/3 faller insurance if they really want to play. The scrap for places is really competitive. Baby Shine is progressive and may run well at a price. 

Selection; No Bet

Pulteney Novice Handicap Chase

Hunt Ball is really progressive and its form is working out a treat.
The selection; in a really tough handicap.


Kingbet are ¼ the odds all races at Cheltenham.
Kingbet are money back if your horse is 2nd in the Supreme on singles to a €100 max.
Extra Placings, enhaced prices will be available in the shop from 8am each morning.

Good luck and enjoy for me the greatest week in horseracing.
Peter Kingston

Feel free to leave your thoughts and tips below in a comment!

2 comments:

  1. Good man PK, good read. I think Overturn represents real good e/w value in the Champion Hurdle, been a fan of Binocular a while now but I think he may have peaked perhaps at Christmas. Great festival, great time of year!

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  2. Good call with Overturn. Ran a cracker. Zarkandar not quick enough over 2m but flying at the finish.

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