Gold Cup Day Preview

I must not be be a stayer. Little time means the briefest of previews and selections on Day 4. I will however be backing a few stayers today in what should be rain softened ground come race time.

The triumph hurdle has a clear form pick in Our Conor for Dessie Hughes. He was a fair bet at 5's last week but now is about right. Far West looks a nice each way bet as the market stands at 5/1,11/2. He'll stay, the Nicholls form is overplayed and he'll stay well at the finish in what should be a furiously run race.

The County hurdle is a great race. With Kingbet paying 5 places it allows you back a few to take advantage of the place value. I think Cotton Mill will run a big race and is the class act in the race with some pounds in hand. Boringly i'll make him the main choice. ManyRiversToCross looks value at 33's too. A hardened handicapper now he looks back off a workable mark, I fancy him to be staying on late for a place. Ted Veale is respected from the Tony Martin stable. Though a lot of rain would not suit him.

The Albert Bartlett has cut up now with 3 non runners today, most notably Ballycasey. At Fishers Cross I think will win but is probably short enough now. You would have to be wary of the confidence behind the Twiston Davies African Gold, The New One's stablemate. He is a nice type like the favourite, he finds plenty off the bridle,a genuine and progressive sort. One other to mention is the all conquering Mullins Inish Island. He has form with At Fishers Cross. I think they will finish in the order of the betting. Yawn I know.

Gold Cup
Bobs Worth:Rock solid form, course form. Correct favourite. Only worry is lack of recent run
Cape Tribulation: Will be staying on at the finish for the minors. Lack of obvious pace a worry.
Captain Chris: Held on form with the principles. Worry about him left handed.
Long Run: Needs to be ridden fairly positively to make it a test. Stable confidence is big plus. Horses find it hard to win back to back, many have won championship races the year after.
Monbeg Dude: Surely not.
Silviniaco Conti:  Unblemished record this year. Couldn't fault him. Dangerous if slowly run.
Sir Des Champs: Trained for this race only. Course winner. But rain a negative for me and doesn't jump well enough.Short enough in betting as a result.
The Giant Bolster: Slightly overpriced. One of the solid yardsticks in the race. Will be thereabouts but lacks class to win.
Wayward Prince: Been awful this year. Talented but can't see it.
1 Bobs Worth 2 Silvianaco Conti 3 Long Run
I'll be laying Sir Des Champs a place.

In the Foxhunter's a bit like Our Conor, Salsify was the value at 4/1+. Now I'm unsure if the rain comes. Happy to be a layer in this race.

In the Martin Pipe Conditional his son has favourite Gevrey Chambertin. Really been visually impressed with him so far, but he's no real value on what he's done form wise. Imperial Cup winner First Avenue looks too big each way simply for his recent form, ability to handle the rough and tumble of such a race and negative opinion he's held attitude wise. Village Vic looks well handicapped but ran average in the Betfair Hurdle.  Salubrious has form with some Albert Bartlett runners so his mark may become clearer post 2.40.

Alderwood is the obvious plot in the Grand Annual. He's another to have halved in price in the past week. Petit Robin and Tanks for That are the two that make most appeal at the prices. Especially Petit Robin who has been a revelation this year over hurdles, he's as good a chaser and with the form he's in, a good claimer taking 7lb off his back he looks fairly treated to make him a bet each way.

Longer than anticipated, maybe I do stay. Good luck!
Like everyone wishing JT McNamara pulls through and makes a full recovery.

Day 3 Cheltenham Festival Preview

This is some card. Cheltenham, the gift that keeps on giving.

The Jewson Novices chase has been lit up with the declaration of Dynaste. He has a solid look as a favourite and fairly priced. Kingbet and some other bookmakers are giving money back if your 2nd to the favourite which is a nice concession. Noel Meade had a late change of heart and entered Texas Jack in the race. His form has been boosted yesterday by the Irish horses in the RSA and was a cracking each way bet earlier in the week, as pointed out by judge and blogger Tony Keenan (@racingtrends). I would have completely missed his entry in a busy week otherwise as you take it for granted the non handicaps are not changing shape once the week is upon us. Aupcharlie splits opinion, in one sense the drop back in trip looks ideal and today he could be a cracking bet, another line of thought is why hasn't he gone and won some of the races he has contested in tight finishes and maybe he is a bit soft. I'm sitting on the fence with him as he's short enough. Tom Georges Module is highly thought of and respected though his team have not fired yet this week. Captain Conan is priced on reputation that form thus far, while Marito is obviously well highly regarded in the Mullins stable as money for him and may still have to see the best of the French import. Texas Jack under a patient ride looks best value to win or come 2nd to the favourite. I'm not normally critical of jockeys but again Tom Scudamore is one of few who doesn't give me confidence.

The Pertemps Hurdle has more plots than a Sherlock Holmes series. But my pick has been ShuttheFrontDoor for some time. 7/1`now I can't see him out of the frame. Earlier double figure quotes have been snapped up and he is primed for today. Sam Winner is obviously respected, as is Pateese at a big price at 40's.

The Ryanair is good renewal, not many runners, but a competitive 8. I can't put anyone off First Lieutenant, he's my idea of the winner for the past 6 months. As is Bobs Worth tomorrow in the Gold Cup. A double is not the worst bet. With the dead 8 however Menorah 8/1 and for Non Stop 14/1 appeal each way with a quarter of the odds a place, favourable each way terms.

The world hurdle is a bit of a maze. I'm going to side with good ground and course performer in Get Me Out Of Here each way 9/1. On at 20's I'm glad ground looks to have dried up well. You can discount his winter runs. I'd say they were half in preparation for the Coral Cup but since Big Bucks absence they are aiming now for Big Bucks. Solwhit could be the class angle and unexposed horse at 3miles, and he certainly gets my saver.

In the Byrne Group Plate I'm cheering on the green and gold again as I believe Cantlow 7/1 has been prepared nicely to win a handicap like this. Hunt Ball and Mad Moose should run well at a track they have before and are both in cracking form. The favourite is many peoples handicap blot of the week and will be well backed.

The Kim Muir looks impossible. 5 places with Kingbet is a big help.Problema Tic is my choice each way. There's not much confidence behind Alfie Sherrin at time of typing but that may change and he's respected.

X Country if the ground seems to be drying out during the day I'd have the slight preference for the once classy Bostons angel. Outlaw Pete if he put his best foot forward the biggest danger. 16 runners here so nice each way.

If JP McManus and AP are interviewed post race multiple times today I'm in business! Or will it be a break from the norm with Noel Meade training a winner up the hill. Either or I'll be happy, both and I'll be elected.

Day 2 Cheltenham Preview

Mullins domination may continue into the start of day 2 with highest rated Back in Focus favourite for the 4m National Hunt Chase. He looks the class act in the field and the step up in trip looks in his favour as he seems a dour stayer. The booking of Derek O’Connor for Rival D’Estruval is noteworthy and Tofino Bay has pieces of form which appeals yet looks held by Back in Focus despite getting big help in the saddle from Nina Carberry. Truthfully after seeing P Mullins outridden by Jane Mangan on Sunday, him riding his father’s horse does not inspire confidence, but despite this 3/1 seems more than fair.

I believe Pont Alexandre is far too short for the Neptune Investment Novices Hurdle at 6/4 and less. Course and distance winner The New One appeals most. I loved his run the last day in defeat to At Fishers Cross, pulling clear of solid yardsticks Coneygree and Whisper. Before that the Twiston Davies charge had been hugely impressive against soft opposition. He may improve for better ground too but has shown he handles a test over C & D. Taquin du Seuil has good form in the book (good 2^nd to My Tent or Yours in Ascot) and is highly thought of, as is Rule the World  of Mouse Morris’. I don’t take his beating of Minsk and Champagne Fever anywhere near literally (As C Fever was found post race to have a lung infection, Minsk made horrible mistake with a circuit to go and both went too quick early), despite this he could only win and win well he did. Minsk is an infuriating type. At 40’s though I’m willing to forgive each way. His fourth to Jezki in Fairyhouse where he was just tapped for toe, his comprehensive beating of Glens Melody, serious flat ability and excuse for the margin of defeat vs Rule the World makes the big price hard to turn down. Though one worry is that he may be better right handed and his most recent run at Leopardstown was poor to say the least.

Unioniste’s form got a boost with Golden Chieftain winning the JLT Tuesday. Course winners won 4 races on Day 1 and this is a big plus for the Nicholls runner. Boston Bob done well to win in Leopardstown latest and should relish the stiff test of an RSA as well. Hadrians Approach will be near Unioniste in the finish. I slightly prefer the English here in terms of value. Terminal is highest rated but looks 2^nd string. Goulanes has made hard work of each of his victories but respected. I think Ruby maybe the difference in a tight affair but no real bet for me.   

For a while the Queen Mother looked a bore but now it excites me. Mail De Bievre and Santuaire may well soften up Sprinter Sacre for the first time and it is my hope and belief at the prices that Sizing Europe will land the killing blow. Sustained pressure on Sprinter from the aforementioned French named pair may be the key, and Sizing Europe’s flawless jumping and top class ability sees him a cracking each way bet for me tomorrow at 6/1. Sprinter Sacre may well win again impressively but this is a big and final step of going down in the history books as a 2m great, but Sizing Europe for me is his toughest opponent test yet.

In a fiercely competitive renewal of the Coral Handicap, Pendra and Cash and Go make most appeal. With 5 places on offer one can afford to back a couple of selections in search of profit. I would have preferred to see Rattan in the County Hurdle on Friday.

I’ve little clue in the Fred Winter and hope to get a result as a layer.

The bumper is a great betting race; the amount of racecourse whispers, preview bankers and gallop watchers naps for the race creates great hysteria in the market. For what it’s worth I was most impressed with Le Vent D’Antan of Liz Doyles in Leopardstown and I can see Sgt Reckless travelling supremely well into the race at the bottom of the hill with Hughsie perched to provide a great trading opportunity.

It’s a great card, enjoy and the best of luck.

Peter

Day 1 Cheltenham Festival Preview 2013

When they lift the covers for the 2013 Cheltenham Festival there will be no time for drying ground. Dead, tacky, energy sapping turf will be the order of the day Tuesday.  Most races will go a good pace early bar maybe the Champion Hurdle and the Cross Country. Markets for the non handicaps are now settled after months of trading and a few adjustments allowing for conditions. There is not much value left in these in truth, but various money back offers and ¼ odds a place leaves some room still to take a side.

One angle I’m very interested in is doing multiple bets with horses of the same formline that you believe is strong. I believe this is a related bet, but one which is allowed. For instance you can’t back Van Persie to be top goalscorer for the season and Man Utd to win the league at full odds in a double, as one selection winning means the other has a far greater chance. Similarly you cannot back Barry Geraghty and Nicky Henderson at full odds in a double this week at Cheltenham to top the jockey and trainer standings respectively, as one winning will most likely mean the other will prevail too. 

Though not as closely related as some examples above, backing a horse from a race you believe is the best form line, or on a line through horse(s) that they have run against that you believe sets a  strong standard may provide an opportunity to multiply value. If you have got the view of a strong form line correct  (easier said than done), well then you may be on to something in terms of getting leg 1 right, leg 2 may be taken at a far bigger price than the sp go off or that leg 2 should be considering the connection.

2 quick examples to try and highlight this are as follows (Not exactly dark horses!);

The New One 9/2 Neptune Novices & At Fishers Cross 4/1 Albert Bartlett

My Tent or Yours 7/4 Supreme Novices and Cotton Mill 7/1 County Hurdle

If the first part of either these doubles win and you’ve taken prices (necessity for this angle), you will more than likely be on the 2^nd leg at an enhanced price due to the form being franked. Therefore the multiple has provided you with enhanced value.

The point is rather than believing The New One is actually a 7/2 shot in your opinion, At Fishers Cross 10/3, the value over time is far greater in multiplying the perceived edge. As by your opinion being correct on the first leg, leg 2 is far shorter in your book, and probably far shorter with the layers as a result.

Please comment underneath or get back to me on twitter whether you believe there is something in this or not. Either way let me know. If you believe there could be something to it why not suggest horses or formlines that you believe may be a good example for the week ahead…

Tuesday

1.30 Supreme ; Champagne Fever was tempting in the conditions at double figures earlier in the week. My Tent or Yours is far more solid than previous favourites of the race with such a high rating. The hill and test of stamina the worry, including what looks like possibly the best Supreme field for years. I think the jolly will win. I’m intrigued to see how Un Atout  gets on, so much potential, but that’s the problem, at the prices its only potential you’re clinging on to. Something like Cause of Causes at a big price with form in the book, and a tough sort with stamina to handle the test of the race is more attractive.

2.05 Arkle

7 runners results in less of an interest each way. Simonsig and Overturn are more priced on potential over fences. Simonsig does look hugely impressive and I wouldn’t be surprised by a big performance. Arvika Legionnaire’s form is decent, especially his defeat of Dedigout in Fairyhouse. The worry is a hard season and going left handed mightn't be his preferred. The other big worry is that he and Overturn are likely to take each other on and there will be a fierce pace on. The only view I have on this race is that Arvika Legionnaire may trade very short for a place turning in and he’s worth laying before the pressure of the hill comes on.

2.40 JLT Handicap Chase

White Star Line is the pick here. 2^nd last year to Hunt Ball off 3lb higher but over 3 furlongs shorter, he could be very well treated here. 14/1 represents value, especially with 5 places and his owner is known for a punt and if fancied this could go off half the price.

Golden Chieftain is the other one that appeals down the bottom of the handicap at 40/1. He’ll be well able for testing conditions, 3^rd here to Unioniste in an attritional race and scooted in off 5lb lower in Worcester in the Autumn by 14 lengths.

3.20 Champion Hurdle

I think 2/1 Hurricane Fly means you are taking on trust connections and willing to draw a line through last year, I’m not so quick to forgive. This market is mature though and there is not too much value left. In a slowly run race with no obvious pace on, something like Grandouet with plenty of toe would be of interest was it not for his interrupted prep. Binocular, Rock on Ruby and Countrywide Flame are all snippets of value for me but not enough to have a bet.

4.00 Cross Country

A fierce open renewal. 16 runners will give some value to punters with four places. I have no real opinion.

4.40 Mares Hurdle

Quevega will win if the same mare but priced accordingly. Swing Bowler brings the best recent form for me and looks the bet without.

5.15

Colour Squadron was much better than the bare form for all his chase starts. While the handicapper hasn’t gave him a mark literally for those runs, he still looks to have minimum 10/12lb in hand, which we must remember is nearly the minimum needed to win a festival handicap. If nothing else he’s 2lb lower than his hurdles mark that was still unexposed and hadn’t reached its full potential and looks to make for a better chaser. Handbrake off tomorrow. The value has been squeezed out of him this week. Double figures in to best 6/1 now. Though he’ll probably go off 7/2. I think he’ll win. He’ll get the best help in the saddle.  

4/6 The Supreme to be quicker than the Champion Hurdle took the eye. If it was 10/11 I'd bet. The Supreme with Un Atout and Champagne Fever dragging it along looks like it will be quicker, but 4/6 is about right in my opinion. Another interesing market I seen was the race with the biggest winning distance.. 7/1 The Arkle,a  race in which I think will fall apart up the straight due to the frenetic early pace and lack of depth in the field is enticing as well as the 4m National Hunt Chase at 16/1. The combination of the trip, ground and possible gulf in class (hopefully Back in Focus) may lead to a big margin.

Best of luck for the week. The greatest show on earth. Let the games begin.