Thursday 22 January 2015

Win and you're in

Seven weeks to Cheltenham. The countdown is well and truly on. We've left all the Christmas and New Year targets behind us and every conversation consists of four days at Prestbury Park in March. Will he make it? What will Willie run where? Will she (Annie Power) go the mares route etc.
Good news this week meant Dundalk will have a big night of its own in March, Friday the 6th before Cheltenham. Two twenty thousand euro races over a mile and 10f are to be run as Fast Track Qualifiers to the AW Championships at Lingfield on Good Friday. The AW Champs consist of 7 races and 1.1m prizemoney to act as the AW season finale in Britain. It's win and you're in and should make for a cracking aperitif to Cheltenham. 


Friday night is a typical seven race card. Typically we start with a tricky sprint handicap were cases can be made for many of the runners. Boughtforasong and Bussa are back to winning marks but would prefer further. Strategic Heights and Majestic Timeline are standing dishes here over 5f and are sure to play a part, especially the latter Joyce trained mare, as she hasn't gone up to much in the weights, the market will not miss them however. Sylvan Mist is respected as has a 6lb pull on Strategic Heights for a 2l defeat in November but I would like to see the Lynam stable in better form. The selection Catwilldo is sure to be a price on recent form. The Garvan Donnelly trained mare was carved up early here a fortnight ago over 5f, lost lots of ground early as a result and was wide into the straight. Though an ordinary race she stuck at it well making plenty of ground in the straight to suggest the interference early cost her and she may be back in a bit of form. Down another pound to a rating of 60, Catwilldo won here off 61 last April and if on a going day has the ability. A nice draw would help. 

The 6f 3yo maiden is an interesting race with representatives from the big yards and a clash of form, recent vs summer. Five Claw is a horse I got to grips with purely by watching back the tape of his first run at the Curragh. 15th beaten 13 lengths looks nothing to write home about on paper. But the Jeremy colt showed plenty of ability leading the field to the two furlong pole where he got tired and was let come home in his own time. The well backed winner that day from Ballydoyle was subsequently  second in a G2 at Leopardstown, the 2nd Jacobean was 4th in the Racing Post Trophy. It looked a very strong 22 runner Curragh maiden for October. A faster surface and a drop back in trip should be ideal for the Halford runner. The leading trainer at Dundalk had a 20% strike rate last year, 35% for 2yo and showed a level stake profit at the track. His maiden runners are always to be feared. The dangers may lie in last week's second Song of Love, Ripped who ran in two good maidens during the summer showing some promise and Mayakoba who ran an eye catching race here before Christmas but all look to want up in trip and not down to 6f. 


Crecora is a horse I've been looking forward to since I seen him run here on the 3rd of October. Last turning in as the winner sat in front, he made remarkable ground to finish a flying 2nd. The break and drop to 10f is a worry as stamina seems his forte but wouldn't put me off backing him. The break might have something to do with being sold for 25k on the 29th of October and moving yards to Eoin Doyle. A leap of faith is taken on fitness and whether Friday is the plan. The 4yo gelding looks well handicapped on the back of being placed on his last 3 starts, 2nd off 60, 3rd off 63 and 2nd off 63, and now has been generously dropped 2lb to 61. Crecora doesn't look an easy ride but if he gets a good pace to run at, watch him finishing. Eloge and Peppapot are sure to be hard to beat while in a rich vein of form, but they've both been penalised four pounds for finishing second last time out, the selection dropped two. 

Elsewhere on the card Tennessee Wildcat and Sharjah are readily opposed, I don't like the formers attitude and I still think 12f is not Sharjah's  trip despite winning last time. Catalpa, Eye of the Tiger, Eloge and Have a Nice Day were all ridden by young female apprentices last time out. They are all entered Friday. On each of their respective last runs I heard complaints post race of the rides after all going close to winning. We all know who rides the horses pre race and often the jockey is factored into the price. The only one to blame is yourself. I wouldn't be surprised if one of the quartet obliged Friday.