Messrs O’Brien, Weld, Bolger, Lyons, Oxx and Halford all
hold entries on Dundalk’s Friday night card. All the big names have come to
play and it’s understandable as they ready their artillery for the start of the
Flat Turf season and Sunday and set fire to the engines.
Dundalk concludes the winter series this Friday, though
there is racing at the County Louth venue next Wednesday, that will be part of
the 2015 season proper. The column which I started in November has been fun to
do. Holding my opinions to account on the upcoming action has been worthwhile
and made me focus. The downside of the piece is that it is written early on
Tuesday when declarations are still unknown so it’s hard to talk about a race
in detail, and sometimes annoys discussing non -runners.
Since starting there has been 108 selections of which 86
ran, 26 winners meant a 30% strike rate. If you had a €1 on each horse in bold you’d be
plus €37.94 overall, a 44% profit on turnover. Those figures are calculated to
SP so in an era where you can take morning prices and they are guaranteed,
hopefully some of you got on even better. Five Claw 7/1-11/4, Grey Danube
14/1-6/1 and Burren View Lady 10/1-11/4 some of the more memorable ones. Of
course drifters win too with Share a Secret winning for the column at 20/1.
Let’s hope we can finish with a bang.
Octavia is a horse that has been entered and re-entered into my
tracker as a result of very noteworthy runs. The David Marnane trained filly
has had 4 starts but never troubled the judge, as a result is off a mark of 68
in Fridays 6f 3yo handicap. Her first run was satisfactory at Leopardstown when
green and never really put into the race. Her 2nd start at Dundalk
was more eye-catching when ridden to the rear early and taking a wide trip throughout;
there was plenty to suggest the grey Acclamation filly had ability. A run in a
Naas maiden when nearly brought down mid race, heavily restrained and finishing
full of running furthered the intrigue. On Octavia’s first handicap run last
day of course I jumped the gun thinking a mark of 70 was generous enough
starting point. Connor King didn’t really put her into the race in an overly
patient ride and once again she finished with running left. I’d imagine she
won’t be 100% fit on Friday but think that this is a fantastic opportunity to
open Octavia’s account, even the extremely patient team of David Marnane should
be keen to crack on now with this well handicapped filly.
There is an intriguing mile auction maiden for 3yo’s which
Indian Tomahawk should head the betting being highest rated. I feel could be short enough however as
flattered to beat Charlie Bear in a slowly run race last time when the twice
subsequent winning Charlie Bear wasn’t 100%. Maira is talented but quirky and
just doesn’t want to win while Hat Alnasar is respected but form doesn’t set
the world alight. Manny Owens and Navegante are two from smaller yards
that may well be overpriced. Crucially Navegante avoids a 6lb penalty for
winning and that will advantageous to the promising son of Lord Shanakill who
will be well suited stepped back up to a mile.
A €20,000 7f handicap race for 3yo+ is the highlight of the
evening and if the majority of the entries declare it will be a belter. Bishan
Bedi has rapidly risen in the ranks since joining AP O’Brien going from a
rating of 65-94. It’s significant that Aidan O’Brien has given him an entry in
the Group 3 Gladness Stakes in April. Stay de Night has looked a star in
the making for Dermot Weld though. The Shamardal gelding has a quick ground
action and whilst probably better suited to a mile appeals off 100. On
Champions weekend at Leopardstown he was beaten only 2l in 6th after
a rough race where he was hampered on a few occasions and finished full of
horse with nowhere to go. Togoville would be a massive danger if on song. His
form is as strong as there is this winter at Dundalk beating The Dancing Lord,
Grey Danube and Have a Nice Day on his way to a mark of 91, a rating which he
fully deserves and up to 7f should see him at his best again. Oor Jock is worth
a mention back up to favoured 7f was very eye-catching last day when flashing
home over 6f.
Jim Bolger should continue his good start to the season with
County Wexford, though Cash or Casualty remains dangerously well handicapped if
returning to form. Newcomers French Approach and Deor should fight out the 12f
maiden and the market should give a good guide. The 10f 3yo maiden contains 3
Dermot Weld entries and whichever he runs I’d make the most likely winner.
Thank you for reading
and hope to talk to you all again in September.
