Ruby On His Own

A strange time of year to discuss betting for the 2013/14 Irish National Hunt Jockey's Championship. But then value often appears when the industry is not focusing on the event. Ruby Walsh and Davy Russell look to dominate the Irish jumps season yet again. 2 winners separated them at the end of last year. When I seen 5/6 quoted about Ruby in a boredom driven scour of specials markets on oddschecker.com, I sat up and took note. Immediately I thought value, but I've explored more to try and justify why.

	2013/14	2012/13	2011/12	2010/11	2009/10	2008/09
Davy Russell Winners-rides Strike rate Injuries/ Suspensions- Days Out	0-0 Punctured Lung Op 29th Apr-20th May	103-549 19% Punctured Lung 14th-21st March 2 days Suspension	104-528 20% 8 days Suspension	75-399 19% Fractured Hand March 24th-7th Apr Fractured Shin Bone 16th Sept-22nd Oct Broke ankle 5th June-25thJuly	91-613 15%	82-515 16%
Ruby Walsh (UK Racing)	8-39 21%	101-339 30% (57-211) Fractured Ankle 2nd Aug-16th September	85-358 24% (55-221) Heavy fall Aintree 14th -20th Apr Crushed Vertebrae 12th July-11th September	45-187 24% (26-106) Double Fracture Right Leg 6th Nov-3rd March. Broke left arm 2 places 10th Apr-21st Aug	109-425 26% (69-234)	120-512 23% (69-252)
Paul Townend	4-38	71-409 17%	46	80-509 16%
Patrick Mullins	5-14 36%	62-187 33%	42
Willie Mullins	12-35 34%	190-591 32%	138-498 28%	106-452 23%	146-545 27%	136-513 27%
Gigginstown House Stud	9-28 33%	101-504 20%	83-439 19%	70-442 16%	43-318 14%	35-300 12%
Paul Nicholls *UK Racing	8-36 22%	131-565 23%	138-598 23%	134-583 23%	115-533 22%	155-614 25%

The above table I have compiled from www.racingpost.com & www.irishracing.com

Things to note for the Irish Jumps season ahead
Bryan Cooper who had a fantastic Cheltenham is out until at least Listowel with a broken femur. Danny Mullins is now retained by Barry Connell. Ruby has already a lead of 8 over Russell in the jockeys championship.

I think Ruby Walsh will win this years title for a number of reasons. Firstly he'd be a hard man to give a lead to. The shift in power from Nicholls to Mullins in terms of big race dominance. For example Ruby's 20 big race wins according to the RP last season included 17 of Mullins and 3 of Nicholls, of which one was Tidal Bay, in Ireland. This is a far cry from the 2009/10 season where Ruby's 10 big race wins all came from Nicholls trained horses. Although Paul Nicholls has retained a superb strike rate in the last few years, the ageing of some of his stars, the emergence of Henderson as champion trainer and fierce competition from McCain, Pipe and Mullins for example making things harder to dominate.

Let's be clear Ruby does not go to England to ride quantity but quality, taking on McCoy 24/7 would be a thankless task and with Mullins seeming to have the stronger firepower, I believe Ruby maybe seen more on Irish shores this year.

Walsh has had his fair share of injuries of late. That's not to say that Davy Russell hasn't or any other contender. And the last thing I'm going to do is tempt faith by taking about what may happen, but God willing a clean bill of health should see him regain the crown he won 7 times consecutively and has watched Townend and Russell win once and twice since respectively since.

The dominance of Willie Mullins is best portrayed by who came 2nd, 3rd and 4th in last years jockeys title; Walsh, Townend and P Mullins with 234 winners between them, all 'Mullins' men. Also the prominence in the Cheltenham betting past and present of all Willie's runners compared to that of any other Irish trainer.

I don't see anyone except R Walsh and D Russell challenge for the champion jockey's crown this year. The sheer size and success of both the Mullins stable and the Gigginstown operation mean it's between their retained riders or next best.

Ruby and Davy are both 34, not getting any younger. How much longer does Ruby want to do the twice weekly commute to England and back apart from the big meetings I'm not so sure. Ruby can do 9-12 according to RP as lowest weight in past 12 months while Davy 10-8.

Ruby travels to Clonmel tonight (at the time of writing) for 1 ride, and is scheduled to have 4 tomorrow at Cork. I'm sure he will have his holidays during the summer but I suspect a lead is not something which he will give up easily, and all the signs point to him being Irish champion again in my opinion.
In a 100% book I'd probably have them 1/2 R Walsh 9/4 D Russell, 33's Townend and 100 bar.

On His Own a fortuitous winner last night, on a quiet Wednesday night for Ruby. He could make a habit of this. I'll take 5/6 and be contented. It'll make the pain of laying the twenty something percent of his rides that are winners bearable for the season ahead.

Written by Peter Kingston
Please feel free to comment below, good or bad!

No Irish Betting Shops Open Easter Sunday

What a farce. Another year goes by, another year of heartache for staff explaining why we can't open Easter Sunday. 'But Fairyhouse is on', 'but Liverpool are playing' and 'but I can bet online and over the phone can't I?!'

The Betting Act of 1931 is the legislation that dictates the opening hours of Irish betting shops still to this day. I appreciate we are in a busy and worrying time politically with the ongoing economic crisis the country faces along with the abortion debate and many more important matters. This archaic law is something which can be remedied quite quickly however and it is ridiculous we are still in this situation in 2013.

I'm not up on exact figures so you will have to forgive me when using numbers and averages loosely as I try to get the point across. There are a few reasons on why Irish betting shops being forced to stay closed on Easter Sunday is a farce, and more importantly why it is in the governments interest to change the legislation, as soon as possible.

A Loss of Income for the State
The Irish Government takes a 1% duty on all turnover in retail betting shops. According to the Irish Bookmakers asscociation website there are currently 1248 shops in Ireland.   http://www.irishbookmakersassociation.com/index.php
If you take in one of their illustrations that each shop turns over €3m a year (optimistic to say the least), that is €8,260 turnover per shop which is being missed out on. I'm allowing this optimistic average figure as Easter Sunday is one of the best days in the sporting calendar for betting. Fairyhouse, other racemeetings, premiership, golf, F1, GAA etc and a holiday weekend where most of the public are off Monday allows for a busy trading day. 8,260 x 1248 shops = €10.3 million turnover  Multiply the country's turnover by the 1% duty = a possible €103,084 duty the state is missing out on.

A Loss of Possible Earnings for staff
For simplicity sake; 1248 shops x 2 staff, all open 11am-6pm (some shops will have 3 staff, less busy 1)
At €10 an hour (again very simplistic) = 1248 shops x 2 staff x 7 hrs x €10 = €174,720
That is an awful lot of money. I'm not going into tax paid etc but you get the drift. Much of this would be extra wages, seasonal staff and in these times hugely appreciated.

Illegal Betting Thrives
Betting in public houses and by other means will thrive when sport is on and people are out enjoying their holiday weekend. It doesn't need explaining, anyone with common sense realises it. Why should the government worry themselves about this, but instead get a share of the trade and allow shops open.

What difference does it make 
Religion and family time is the only two defences that are put forward with this archaic law. This is outdated I reckon. Sport is on. People can go to Fairyhouse and Cork to bet. They can ring up or log online and bet. No one is dragging people into the shops, by all means go to mass or for a picnic but it's no reason to close shops. Leave the choice. And stop the black economy and unlicensed activity. People worried about problem gambling; shops take measures to help those with a problem, the unmonitored and unlicensed trade that will happen on Sunday will not.

I presume the multiples or chains haven't pursued this as it probably suits them as an annual event to move customers to open phone and online accounts and works as a great recruitment drive. There was legislation drawn up in the summer to allow open each evening and on Easter Sunday. But no sign of this going through the Dail. This is probably because of the intricacies and red tape involved in taxing online betting, the Easter Sunday issue however is simply solved.
http://www.merrionstreet.ie/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/Betting-bill.pdf  See section 22. But still we wait.
Another €100,000 in duty goes a begging and €175,000 in wages.

Peter Kingston
Irish Independent Bookmaker
Please note these are my own personal views and I do not represent anyone.


PS: Kingbet will be open Thursday evening and Easter Saturday, be sure to get your bets done then while we are open, for Good Friday and Easter Sunday when we remain closed. I'm not even contesting Good Friday!

Gold Cup Day Preview

I must not be be a stayer. Little time means the briefest of previews and selections on Day 4. I will however be backing a few stayers today in what should be rain softened ground come race time.

The triumph hurdle has a clear form pick in Our Conor for Dessie Hughes. He was a fair bet at 5's last week but now is about right. Far West looks a nice each way bet as the market stands at 5/1,11/2. He'll stay, the Nicholls form is overplayed and he'll stay well at the finish in what should be a furiously run race.

The County hurdle is a great race. With Kingbet paying 5 places it allows you back a few to take advantage of the place value. I think Cotton Mill will run a big race and is the class act in the race with some pounds in hand. Boringly i'll make him the main choice. ManyRiversToCross looks value at 33's too. A hardened handicapper now he looks back off a workable mark, I fancy him to be staying on late for a place. Ted Veale is respected from the Tony Martin stable. Though a lot of rain would not suit him.

The Albert Bartlett has cut up now with 3 non runners today, most notably Ballycasey. At Fishers Cross I think will win but is probably short enough now. You would have to be wary of the confidence behind the Twiston Davies African Gold, The New One's stablemate. He is a nice type like the favourite, he finds plenty off the bridle,a genuine and progressive sort. One other to mention is the all conquering Mullins Inish Island. He has form with At Fishers Cross. I think they will finish in the order of the betting. Yawn I know.

Gold Cup
Bobs Worth:Rock solid form, course form. Correct favourite. Only worry is lack of recent run
Cape Tribulation: Will be staying on at the finish for the minors. Lack of obvious pace a worry.
Captain Chris: Held on form with the principles. Worry about him left handed.
Long Run: Needs to be ridden fairly positively to make it a test. Stable confidence is big plus. Horses find it hard to win back to back, many have won championship races the year after.
Monbeg Dude: Surely not.
Silviniaco Conti:  Unblemished record this year. Couldn't fault him. Dangerous if slowly run.
Sir Des Champs: Trained for this race only. Course winner. But rain a negative for me and doesn't jump well enough.Short enough in betting as a result.
The Giant Bolster: Slightly overpriced. One of the solid yardsticks in the race. Will be thereabouts but lacks class to win.
Wayward Prince: Been awful this year. Talented but can't see it.
1 Bobs Worth 2 Silvianaco Conti 3 Long Run
I'll be laying Sir Des Champs a place.

In the Foxhunter's a bit like Our Conor, Salsify was the value at 4/1+. Now I'm unsure if the rain comes. Happy to be a layer in this race.

In the Martin Pipe Conditional his son has favourite Gevrey Chambertin. Really been visually impressed with him so far, but he's no real value on what he's done form wise. Imperial Cup winner First Avenue looks too big each way simply for his recent form, ability to handle the rough and tumble of such a race and negative opinion he's held attitude wise. Village Vic looks well handicapped but ran average in the Betfair Hurdle.  Salubrious has form with some Albert Bartlett runners so his mark may become clearer post 2.40.

Alderwood is the obvious plot in the Grand Annual. He's another to have halved in price in the past week. Petit Robin and Tanks for That are the two that make most appeal at the prices. Especially Petit Robin who has been a revelation this year over hurdles, he's as good a chaser and with the form he's in, a good claimer taking 7lb off his back he looks fairly treated to make him a bet each way.

Longer than anticipated, maybe I do stay. Good luck!
Like everyone wishing JT McNamara pulls through and makes a full recovery.

Day 3 Cheltenham Festival Preview

This is some card. Cheltenham, the gift that keeps on giving.

The Jewson Novices chase has been lit up with the declaration of Dynaste. He has a solid look as a favourite and fairly priced. Kingbet and some other bookmakers are giving money back if your 2nd to the favourite which is a nice concession. Noel Meade had a late change of heart and entered Texas Jack in the race. His form has been boosted yesterday by the Irish horses in the RSA and was a cracking each way bet earlier in the week, as pointed out by judge and blogger Tony Keenan (@racingtrends). I would have completely missed his entry in a busy week otherwise as you take it for granted the non handicaps are not changing shape once the week is upon us. Aupcharlie splits opinion, in one sense the drop back in trip looks ideal and today he could be a cracking bet, another line of thought is why hasn't he gone and won some of the races he has contested in tight finishes and maybe he is a bit soft. I'm sitting on the fence with him as he's short enough. Tom Georges Module is highly thought of and respected though his team have not fired yet this week. Captain Conan is priced on reputation that form thus far, while Marito is obviously well highly regarded in the Mullins stable as money for him and may still have to see the best of the French import. Texas Jack under a patient ride looks best value to win or come 2nd to the favourite. I'm not normally critical of jockeys but again Tom Scudamore is one of few who doesn't give me confidence.

The Pertemps Hurdle has more plots than a Sherlock Holmes series. But my pick has been ShuttheFrontDoor for some time. 7/1`now I can't see him out of the frame. Earlier double figure quotes have been snapped up and he is primed for today. Sam Winner is obviously respected, as is Pateese at a big price at 40's.

The Ryanair is good renewal, not many runners, but a competitive 8. I can't put anyone off First Lieutenant, he's my idea of the winner for the past 6 months. As is Bobs Worth tomorrow in the Gold Cup. A double is not the worst bet. With the dead 8 however Menorah 8/1 and for Non Stop 14/1 appeal each way with a quarter of the odds a place, favourable each way terms.

The world hurdle is a bit of a maze. I'm going to side with good ground and course performer in Get Me Out Of Here each way 9/1. On at 20's I'm glad ground looks to have dried up well. You can discount his winter runs. I'd say they were half in preparation for the Coral Cup but since Big Bucks absence they are aiming now for Big Bucks. Solwhit could be the class angle and unexposed horse at 3miles, and he certainly gets my saver.

In the Byrne Group Plate I'm cheering on the green and gold again as I believe Cantlow 7/1 has been prepared nicely to win a handicap like this. Hunt Ball and Mad Moose should run well at a track they have before and are both in cracking form. The favourite is many peoples handicap blot of the week and will be well backed.

The Kim Muir looks impossible. 5 places with Kingbet is a big help.Problema Tic is my choice each way. There's not much confidence behind Alfie Sherrin at time of typing but that may change and he's respected.

X Country if the ground seems to be drying out during the day I'd have the slight preference for the once classy Bostons angel. Outlaw Pete if he put his best foot forward the biggest danger. 16 runners here so nice each way.

If JP McManus and AP are interviewed post race multiple times today I'm in business! Or will it be a break from the norm with Noel Meade training a winner up the hill. Either or I'll be happy, both and I'll be elected.

Day 2 Cheltenham Preview

Mullins domination may continue into the start of day 2 with highest rated Back in Focus favourite for the 4m National Hunt Chase. He looks the class act in the field and the step up in trip looks in his favour as he seems a dour stayer. The booking of Derek O’Connor for Rival D’Estruval is noteworthy and Tofino Bay has pieces of form which appeals yet looks held by Back in Focus despite getting big help in the saddle from Nina Carberry. Truthfully after seeing P Mullins outridden by Jane Mangan on Sunday, him riding his father’s horse does not inspire confidence, but despite this 3/1 seems more than fair.

I believe Pont Alexandre is far too short for the Neptune Investment Novices Hurdle at 6/4 and less. Course and distance winner The New One appeals most. I loved his run the last day in defeat to At Fishers Cross, pulling clear of solid yardsticks Coneygree and Whisper. Before that the Twiston Davies charge had been hugely impressive against soft opposition. He may improve for better ground too but has shown he handles a test over C & D. Taquin du Seuil has good form in the book (good 2^nd to My Tent or Yours in Ascot) and is highly thought of, as is Rule the World  of Mouse Morris’. I don’t take his beating of Minsk and Champagne Fever anywhere near literally (As C Fever was found post race to have a lung infection, Minsk made horrible mistake with a circuit to go and both went too quick early), despite this he could only win and win well he did. Minsk is an infuriating type. At 40’s though I’m willing to forgive each way. His fourth to Jezki in Fairyhouse where he was just tapped for toe, his comprehensive beating of Glens Melody, serious flat ability and excuse for the margin of defeat vs Rule the World makes the big price hard to turn down. Though one worry is that he may be better right handed and his most recent run at Leopardstown was poor to say the least.

Unioniste’s form got a boost with Golden Chieftain winning the JLT Tuesday. Course winners won 4 races on Day 1 and this is a big plus for the Nicholls runner. Boston Bob done well to win in Leopardstown latest and should relish the stiff test of an RSA as well. Hadrians Approach will be near Unioniste in the finish. I slightly prefer the English here in terms of value. Terminal is highest rated but looks 2^nd string. Goulanes has made hard work of each of his victories but respected. I think Ruby maybe the difference in a tight affair but no real bet for me.   

For a while the Queen Mother looked a bore but now it excites me. Mail De Bievre and Santuaire may well soften up Sprinter Sacre for the first time and it is my hope and belief at the prices that Sizing Europe will land the killing blow. Sustained pressure on Sprinter from the aforementioned French named pair may be the key, and Sizing Europe’s flawless jumping and top class ability sees him a cracking each way bet for me tomorrow at 6/1. Sprinter Sacre may well win again impressively but this is a big and final step of going down in the history books as a 2m great, but Sizing Europe for me is his toughest opponent test yet.

In a fiercely competitive renewal of the Coral Handicap, Pendra and Cash and Go make most appeal. With 5 places on offer one can afford to back a couple of selections in search of profit. I would have preferred to see Rattan in the County Hurdle on Friday.

I’ve little clue in the Fred Winter and hope to get a result as a layer.

The bumper is a great betting race; the amount of racecourse whispers, preview bankers and gallop watchers naps for the race creates great hysteria in the market. For what it’s worth I was most impressed with Le Vent D’Antan of Liz Doyles in Leopardstown and I can see Sgt Reckless travelling supremely well into the race at the bottom of the hill with Hughsie perched to provide a great trading opportunity.

It’s a great card, enjoy and the best of luck.

Peter

Day 1 Cheltenham Festival Preview 2013

When they lift the covers for the 2013 Cheltenham Festival there will be no time for drying ground. Dead, tacky, energy sapping turf will be the order of the day Tuesday.  Most races will go a good pace early bar maybe the Champion Hurdle and the Cross Country. Markets for the non handicaps are now settled after months of trading and a few adjustments allowing for conditions. There is not much value left in these in truth, but various money back offers and ¼ odds a place leaves some room still to take a side.

One angle I’m very interested in is doing multiple bets with horses of the same formline that you believe is strong. I believe this is a related bet, but one which is allowed. For instance you can’t back Van Persie to be top goalscorer for the season and Man Utd to win the league at full odds in a double, as one selection winning means the other has a far greater chance. Similarly you cannot back Barry Geraghty and Nicky Henderson at full odds in a double this week at Cheltenham to top the jockey and trainer standings respectively, as one winning will most likely mean the other will prevail too. 

Though not as closely related as some examples above, backing a horse from a race you believe is the best form line, or on a line through horse(s) that they have run against that you believe sets a  strong standard may provide an opportunity to multiply value. If you have got the view of a strong form line correct  (easier said than done), well then you may be on to something in terms of getting leg 1 right, leg 2 may be taken at a far bigger price than the sp go off or that leg 2 should be considering the connection.

2 quick examples to try and highlight this are as follows (Not exactly dark horses!);

The New One 9/2 Neptune Novices & At Fishers Cross 4/1 Albert Bartlett

My Tent or Yours 7/4 Supreme Novices and Cotton Mill 7/1 County Hurdle

If the first part of either these doubles win and you’ve taken prices (necessity for this angle), you will more than likely be on the 2^nd leg at an enhanced price due to the form being franked. Therefore the multiple has provided you with enhanced value.

The point is rather than believing The New One is actually a 7/2 shot in your opinion, At Fishers Cross 10/3, the value over time is far greater in multiplying the perceived edge. As by your opinion being correct on the first leg, leg 2 is far shorter in your book, and probably far shorter with the layers as a result.

Please comment underneath or get back to me on twitter whether you believe there is something in this or not. Either way let me know. If you believe there could be something to it why not suggest horses or formlines that you believe may be a good example for the week ahead…

Tuesday

1.30 Supreme ; Champagne Fever was tempting in the conditions at double figures earlier in the week. My Tent or Yours is far more solid than previous favourites of the race with such a high rating. The hill and test of stamina the worry, including what looks like possibly the best Supreme field for years. I think the jolly will win. I’m intrigued to see how Un Atout  gets on, so much potential, but that’s the problem, at the prices its only potential you’re clinging on to. Something like Cause of Causes at a big price with form in the book, and a tough sort with stamina to handle the test of the race is more attractive.

2.05 Arkle

7 runners results in less of an interest each way. Simonsig and Overturn are more priced on potential over fences. Simonsig does look hugely impressive and I wouldn’t be surprised by a big performance. Arvika Legionnaire’s form is decent, especially his defeat of Dedigout in Fairyhouse. The worry is a hard season and going left handed mightn't be his preferred. The other big worry is that he and Overturn are likely to take each other on and there will be a fierce pace on. The only view I have on this race is that Arvika Legionnaire may trade very short for a place turning in and he’s worth laying before the pressure of the hill comes on.

2.40 JLT Handicap Chase

White Star Line is the pick here. 2^nd last year to Hunt Ball off 3lb higher but over 3 furlongs shorter, he could be very well treated here. 14/1 represents value, especially with 5 places and his owner is known for a punt and if fancied this could go off half the price.

Golden Chieftain is the other one that appeals down the bottom of the handicap at 40/1. He’ll be well able for testing conditions, 3^rd here to Unioniste in an attritional race and scooted in off 5lb lower in Worcester in the Autumn by 14 lengths.

3.20 Champion Hurdle

I think 2/1 Hurricane Fly means you are taking on trust connections and willing to draw a line through last year, I’m not so quick to forgive. This market is mature though and there is not too much value left. In a slowly run race with no obvious pace on, something like Grandouet with plenty of toe would be of interest was it not for his interrupted prep. Binocular, Rock on Ruby and Countrywide Flame are all snippets of value for me but not enough to have a bet.

4.00 Cross Country

A fierce open renewal. 16 runners will give some value to punters with four places. I have no real opinion.

4.40 Mares Hurdle

Quevega will win if the same mare but priced accordingly. Swing Bowler brings the best recent form for me and looks the bet without.

5.15

Colour Squadron was much better than the bare form for all his chase starts. While the handicapper hasn’t gave him a mark literally for those runs, he still looks to have minimum 10/12lb in hand, which we must remember is nearly the minimum needed to win a festival handicap. If nothing else he’s 2lb lower than his hurdles mark that was still unexposed and hadn’t reached its full potential and looks to make for a better chaser. Handbrake off tomorrow. The value has been squeezed out of him this week. Double figures in to best 6/1 now. Though he’ll probably go off 7/2. I think he’ll win. He’ll get the best help in the saddle.  

4/6 The Supreme to be quicker than the Champion Hurdle took the eye. If it was 10/11 I'd bet. The Supreme with Un Atout and Champagne Fever dragging it along looks like it will be quicker, but 4/6 is about right in my opinion. Another interesing market I seen was the race with the biggest winning distance.. 7/1 The Arkle,a  race in which I think will fall apart up the straight due to the frenetic early pace and lack of depth in the field is enticing as well as the 4m National Hunt Chase at 16/1. The combination of the trip, ground and possible gulf in class (hopefully Back in Focus) may lead to a big margin.

Best of luck for the week. The greatest show on earth. Let the games begin.