Ruby On His Own

A strange time of year to discuss betting for the 2013/14 Irish National Hunt Jockey's Championship. But then value often appears when the industry is not focusing on the event. Ruby Walsh and Davy Russell look to dominate the Irish jumps season yet again. 2 winners separated them at the end of last year. When I seen 5/6 quoted about Ruby in a boredom driven scour of specials markets on oddschecker.com, I sat up and took note. Immediately I thought value, but I've explored more to try and justify why.

	2013/14	2012/13	2011/12	2010/11	2009/10	2008/09
Davy Russell Winners-rides Strike rate Injuries/ Suspensions- Days Out	0-0 Punctured Lung Op 29th Apr-20th May	103-549 19% Punctured Lung 14th-21st March 2 days Suspension	104-528 20% 8 days Suspension	75-399 19% Fractured Hand March 24th-7th Apr Fractured Shin Bone 16th Sept-22nd Oct Broke ankle 5th June-25thJuly	91-613 15%	82-515 16%
Ruby Walsh (UK Racing)	8-39 21%	101-339 30% (57-211) Fractured Ankle 2nd Aug-16th September	85-358 24% (55-221) Heavy fall Aintree 14th -20th Apr Crushed Vertebrae 12th July-11th September	45-187 24% (26-106) Double Fracture Right Leg 6th Nov-3rd March. Broke left arm 2 places 10th Apr-21st Aug	109-425 26% (69-234)	120-512 23% (69-252)
Paul Townend	4-38	71-409 17%	46	80-509 16%
Patrick Mullins	5-14 36%	62-187 33%	42
Willie Mullins	12-35 34%	190-591 32%	138-498 28%	106-452 23%	146-545 27%	136-513 27%
Gigginstown House Stud	9-28 33%	101-504 20%	83-439 19%	70-442 16%	43-318 14%	35-300 12%
Paul Nicholls *UK Racing	8-36 22%	131-565 23%	138-598 23%	134-583 23%	115-533 22%	155-614 25%

The above table I have compiled from www.racingpost.com & www.irishracing.com

Things to note for the Irish Jumps season ahead
Bryan Cooper who had a fantastic Cheltenham is out until at least Listowel with a broken femur. Danny Mullins is now retained by Barry Connell. Ruby has already a lead of 8 over Russell in the jockeys championship.

I think Ruby Walsh will win this years title for a number of reasons. Firstly he'd be a hard man to give a lead to. The shift in power from Nicholls to Mullins in terms of big race dominance. For example Ruby's 20 big race wins according to the RP last season included 17 of Mullins and 3 of Nicholls, of which one was Tidal Bay, in Ireland. This is a far cry from the 2009/10 season where Ruby's 10 big race wins all came from Nicholls trained horses. Although Paul Nicholls has retained a superb strike rate in the last few years, the ageing of some of his stars, the emergence of Henderson as champion trainer and fierce competition from McCain, Pipe and Mullins for example making things harder to dominate.

Let's be clear Ruby does not go to England to ride quantity but quality, taking on McCoy 24/7 would be a thankless task and with Mullins seeming to have the stronger firepower, I believe Ruby maybe seen more on Irish shores this year.

Walsh has had his fair share of injuries of late. That's not to say that Davy Russell hasn't or any other contender. And the last thing I'm going to do is tempt faith by taking about what may happen, but God willing a clean bill of health should see him regain the crown he won 7 times consecutively and has watched Townend and Russell win once and twice since respectively since.

The dominance of Willie Mullins is best portrayed by who came 2nd, 3rd and 4th in last years jockeys title; Walsh, Townend and P Mullins with 234 winners between them, all 'Mullins' men. Also the prominence in the Cheltenham betting past and present of all Willie's runners compared to that of any other Irish trainer.

I don't see anyone except R Walsh and D Russell challenge for the champion jockey's crown this year. The sheer size and success of both the Mullins stable and the Gigginstown operation mean it's between their retained riders or next best.

Ruby and Davy are both 34, not getting any younger. How much longer does Ruby want to do the twice weekly commute to England and back apart from the big meetings I'm not so sure. Ruby can do 9-12 according to RP as lowest weight in past 12 months while Davy 10-8.

Ruby travels to Clonmel tonight (at the time of writing) for 1 ride, and is scheduled to have 4 tomorrow at Cork. I'm sure he will have his holidays during the summer but I suspect a lead is not something which he will give up easily, and all the signs point to him being Irish champion again in my opinion.
In a 100% book I'd probably have them 1/2 R Walsh 9/4 D Russell, 33's Townend and 100 bar.

On His Own a fortuitous winner last night, on a quiet Wednesday night for Ruby. He could make a habit of this. I'll take 5/6 and be contented. It'll make the pain of laying the twenty something percent of his rides that are winners bearable for the season ahead.

Written by Peter Kingston
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