Beware False Prophets

Last Saturday, the sun set on the European soccer and rugby seasons, with victories for Barcelona and Munster. After the games there would have been many satisfied supporters, not because they were fans of the respective winning teams, but because they had predicted such results.

These predictions may have been made at the start of the season or in the last few weeks. After the Heineken Cup final there would have been talk of “Leinster being too tired” or “Munster being hungrier” for the Magners League final and likewise statements that “Barca are just too good” before the Champions League final.

These opinions are a feature of everyday life and can be an enjoyable source of conversation for sport fans. However I personally have started to ignore the opinions of those, who do not back up their predictions, at least occasionally, with a bet. There are too many so called experts when it comes to sport, who “know” they are right, but who refuse to risk being wrong. Either they have decided not to use their gift for seeing into the future to make money, out of an innate sense of fairness, or as I suspect, have adopted a hindsight approach. Make enough predictions and some will inevitably come through, focus on these and don’t dwell on the others.

Gambling itself is frowned upon in many societies and is banned in some jurisdictions, due to its addictive nature and immoral profit. Casinos are filled with people losing hard earned cash, betting on roulette or other non skill games and this has caused moral problems for the entire betting industry.

Life itself though is a series of bets: what job to take is a wager on which profession will give you the most money or the most satisfaction or offer the best future prospects. Likewise picking a college course or a trade is a similar wager. All of these “gambles” have far reaching consequences.

Ex or current players and managers have valid expert opinions on their respective sports, however how can someone who plays a five-a-side soccer once a week know what is the best way to mark a player like Messi? I have heard that the solution is to get “tight” or “drop deep”.  Is that not the equivalent of saying that the solution to the current economic crisis is less government intervention or maybe more?

Never Look a Gift Horse in the Mouth

There has never been a better PR year for the monarchy than 2011 thus far to my mind. Love them or loathe them they have got it spot on. The Royal Wedding, the event not the 4/1 winning horse on the day, went to perfection. There was lots of class on show but also lots of humility and respect of the times these Isles face, economically. Then onto the serious stuff of the Queens visit to Ireland. A visit Obama’s Secret Service and scores of organisers would be proud of. There was much symbolism and gesture but more importantly there was effort and meaning on the part of QEII.

Thirty years ago the Derby was won by the mighty Shergar. The most impressive winner of the greatest test of the thoroughbred. Class, speed, stamina, balance and courage are all tested on the Epsom Downs to produce the best middle distance 3 year old horse each year. There is one major omission from the 13 declared runners this year, Frankel. A horse who blew us all away in the 2000 Guineas. For many reasons Henry Cecil does not send his machine to the Derby. The main one being he has little to gain and much to lose at chancing staying a mile and a half, another that stamina is not as valuable in the stallion profile as it once was. The Derby however does not lack in narrative. The Queen has a runner.

Irish Provincial Rugby Review 2010/11

As the dust settles on another successful season for Irish rugby, it’s time to take stock of how the Irish provinces have fared this season and assess their prospects for next season

At the start of the 2010/11 season there was huge focus on Ulster rugby. The arrivals of high profile Springboks Ruan Pienaar, Pedrie Wannenburg and Johann Muller at Ravenhill was expected to make the northern side more competitive. Indeed the addition of that trio to a side which contained fellow South Africans BJ Botha and Robbie Diack certainly gave the province a hard abrasive edge which may have been missing in past seasons. Their success in reaching the quarter finals of the Heineken Cup and the playoffs of the Magners League is no small achievement given where they were 18 months ago. And to say that that success is purely down to the influx of foreign, or non Irish qualified players, would be doing a great disservice to guys such as Chris Henry, Dan Touhy, Rory Best and Tom Court. What has impressed me most though about this Ulster side this season was the young players. In players like Luke Marshall, Craig Gilroy, Nevin Spence, Conor Gaston and Paddy McAllister Ulster have the nucleus of a strong team for the future. Gilroy in particular caught the eye with eight tries from fourteen appearances; this guy appears to have the requisite skill levels allied with great strength and pace to become a top international player in the future. Qualification for the knock out stages of the Heineken Cup was a particular highlight, for it was the first time since they won the competition back in 1999 that they got out of their group. In that match against Northampton, the eventual finalists, for 50-60 minutes they gave as good as they got. The signs for next season are also hugely positive, further investment in the team through the signings of top class talent such as All Black prop John Afoa and his fellow New Zealander utility back Jared Payne will further improve this young Ulster squad. The departure of Botha to Munster at the moment appears to be good business for Ulster as he has shown signs of age and in Afoa they are not only replacing Botha, they are possibly strengthening their hand. Payne has been one of the standout performers in a very strong Auckland Blues team which has been scoring tries for fun in this season’s Super 15. For Ulster a backline of Pienaar, Humphreys, Trimble, Spence, Payne, Gilroy and D’Arcy has the potential to be devastating in attack. There are also rumours circulating the province that another major signing in the backline may be announced over the summer, All Black speedster Cory Jane has been mentioned, if this were to come to fruition Ulster would be in possession of a fearsome backline and the targeting of major silverware would be expected.

Cleaning the Stables

When Poland takes over the rotating presidency of the European Union in June, it faces a long list of task. Aside from the financial crisis affecting various countries, the EU is currently trying to form a coherent response to the events to its south, as Arab nations attempt, with varying results and death tolls, to overthrow their despots. So it would perhaps not seem a good time to take on one of the most powerful non-governmental organisations in the world. Yet Poland should make reform of FIFA a priority. While FIFA vigourously rejects any attempts by governments to interfere, it has demonstrated no willingness to purge the corrupt elements within its structure. As recent events have shown, the organisation still tends to circle wagons. At this juncture, the European Union, because it remains both football’s biggest market, as well as FIFA’s primary source of revenue, is the only body which might have a chance of imposing order on FIFA, and its autocratic president, Sepp Blatter.

Presidents of FIFA tend to remain in the job for a long time. Since the organisation’s inception in 1904, only eight men have held the office. Blatter’s predecessor, Joao Havelange, held the position for 24 years, so Blatter’s dozen-year reign is not unusual. In many respects he has been good for football. Under his tutelage, the sport has truly gone global. Before he took over in 1998, the World Cup had never been held outside Europe or the Americas. Since then, it has gone to Asia and Africa. The amount of money in the game has increased exponentially. More than any of his forebears, Blatter has come close to achieving the Holy Grail and establishing football in the United States.

However, Blatter’s reign has been anything but quiet. Under his stewardship FIFA, always a murky organisation, has retreated into outright secrecy. There is no disclosure of salaries of senior staff.  Votes are held behind closed doors, and results are often predetermined by backroom deals cut by middlemen. Given that FIFA is the sole regulator of an industry worth tens of billions of euro a year, it would be expected that there would be some sort of mechanism to ensure accountability. Yet Blatter has fiercely resisted any interference by outside parties. Both Manchester United and Juventus, two of the biggest clubs in the world, were threatened with suspension or even expulsion from FIFA for considering taking legal challenges to decisions made against them, in the former case over Rio Ferdinand’s draconian punishment for missing a drugs test, and in the latter over being relegated for their involvement in the 2006 Italian match-fixing scandal.

Ireland’s request to be included as the 33^rd team in the 2010 World cup following an unseemly exit at the hands of Thierry Henry was indeed laughable, laughing it off was perhaps not very tactful. Blasé comments about female footballers, and gay fans, have not exactly enhanced Blatter’s reputation.

Kingbet Blog

We have been lucky enough to have contributors accept our invitation to write on the blog site. The Kingbet Blog will be daily updated by sports enthusiasts of all varieties. Please feel free to comment and ask Q's. The view of the bloggers may not be that of Kingbet Bookmakers. Thanks to those who take time out to post on the page.
Hope you enjoy
Peter Kingston
Kingbet