Beware False Prophets

Last Saturday, the sun set on the European soccer and rugby seasons, with victories for Barcelona and Munster. After the games there would have been many satisfied supporters, not because they were fans of the respective winning teams, but because they had predicted such results.

These predictions may have been made at the start of the season or in the last few weeks. After the Heineken Cup final there would have been talk of “Leinster being too tired” or “Munster being hungrier” for the Magners League final and likewise statements that “Barca are just too good” before the Champions League final.

These opinions are a feature of everyday life and can be an enjoyable source of conversation for sport fans. However I personally have started to ignore the opinions of those, who do not back up their predictions, at least occasionally, with a bet. There are too many so called experts when it comes to sport, who “know” they are right, but who refuse to risk being wrong. Either they have decided not to use their gift for seeing into the future to make money, out of an innate sense of fairness, or as I suspect, have adopted a hindsight approach. Make enough predictions and some will inevitably come through, focus on these and don’t dwell on the others.

Gambling itself is frowned upon in many societies and is banned in some jurisdictions, due to its addictive nature and immoral profit. Casinos are filled with people losing hard earned cash, betting on roulette or other non skill games and this has caused moral problems for the entire betting industry.

Life itself though is a series of bets: what job to take is a wager on which profession will give you the most money or the most satisfaction or offer the best future prospects. Likewise picking a college course or a trade is a similar wager. All of these “gambles” have far reaching consequences.

Ex or current players and managers have valid expert opinions on their respective sports, however how can someone who plays a five-a-side soccer once a week know what is the best way to mark a player like Messi? I have heard that the solution is to get “tight” or “drop deep”.  Is that not the equivalent of saying that the solution to the current economic crisis is less government intervention or maybe more?
The difference with sport predictions is that without a bet to back up your opinion, there is no tangible gain or loss in being right or wrong.

I have chosen this topic to kick off my blog because the nature of this forum means that sport performance past or future will be analysed. I have never played sport at any standard, so my opinions on any particular team or game will be backed up with a recommendation. The reader can then decide how much or how little I actually know based on the success of these recommendations.

I will try to give feedback on any bet or tip given in the blog and keep a running total. All predictions will be given before the event, for example I am not going to say that I won on a bet, if the tip was not given in the previous edition of the blog.

Onto this week’s action: Toulouse play Montpellier in the final of the French Top 14, which is live on Setanta Ireland. Toulouse are quoted at 1 to 4 to win the trophy, despite the short odds I feel that Toulouse are “overpriced”. After watching Montpellier almost throw away a three score lead against Racing Metro last weekend, only to win with a late penalty, I feel that they are not equipped to handle the pressure of this type of game, whereas Toulouse have a definite winning pedigree.

The Barbarians are playing Wales, but I cannot offer much insight into Barbarian games, other than the fact that the Ba-Ba’s opposition has a massive advantage because they will kick at goal (the Barbarians of recent times run everything). The games are so unpredictable that a big price about either team is normally attractive, after looking at the Barbarians team 21 to 10 looks worth a punt, also watch out for Gavin Henson’s return to the Welsh set up.

Just to note, while this blog advocates sport betting, I am not suggesting that anyone risk money they cannot afford. A look at a price comparison website shows that the best price market is normally covered below 105% meaning that a 5 euro bet would lose a punter 25 cent on average [(105% – 100%) x €5].

Kingbet have also graciously agreed to go Irish best price on both of these tips, to mark the introduction of the blog.

Till next week (if I am not removed from the blog) and good luck,

MC.