Never Look a Gift Horse in the Mouth

There has never been a better PR year for the monarchy than 2011 thus far to my mind. Love them or loathe them they have got it spot on. The Royal Wedding, the event not the 4/1 winning horse on the day, went to perfection. There was lots of class on show but also lots of humility and respect of the times these Isles face, economically. Then onto the serious stuff of the Queens visit to Ireland. A visit Obama’s Secret Service and scores of organisers would be proud of. There was much symbolism and gesture but more importantly there was effort and meaning on the part of QEII.

Thirty years ago the Derby was won by the mighty Shergar. The most impressive winner of the greatest test of the thoroughbred. Class, speed, stamina, balance and courage are all tested on the Epsom Downs to produce the best middle distance 3 year old horse each year. There is one major omission from the 13 declared runners this year, Frankel. A horse who blew us all away in the 2000 Guineas. For many reasons Henry Cecil does not send his machine to the Derby. The main one being he has little to gain and much to lose at chancing staying a mile and a half, another that stamina is not as valuable in the stallion profile as it once was. The Derby however does not lack in narrative. The Queen has a runner.
Her Carlton House is the favourite. The colt won arguably the most illustrious Derby trial, the Dante. That race was run at a crawl and in winning, Carlton House beat Seville of Aidan O’Briens into 2^nd. Seville is sure to stay in the Derby and although I can’t see him winning I can see him running into a place. Carlton House was ultra impressive in the Dante. His low head carriage, grabbing up the ground, running straight as a gun barrel after bursting between horses showed all the signs of a true champion. His temperament before the start is a worry. His half brother has refused to race on his last 3 starts and there were signs of it before the York trial with Carlton House. He couldn’t be with a better trainer though. Sir Michael Stoute has won the Derby on numerous occasions, including last year’s winner Workforce and the mighty Shergar.

Shergar was kidnapped, allegedly by the IRA, shortly after starting his stud career. A ransom was sought but the owners ruled out any payment, as stallions the worldwide would then become targets for whatever thugs carried out this crime. It is said that Shergar got injured in transit and was in such distress around people not comfortable with horses, he was shot dead. Those were the days when the Queen could not send her mares to Irish Stallions for fear of some similar feat. 10 years ago QEII started sending some under the guise of Highclere Thoroughbred. Last fortnight the Queen visited the Irish National Stud and Coolmore to spend time and appreciate the industry and sport she loves most. She now sends her mares to Ireland, France, Germany and further afield freely. Relations with the Aga Khan, Coolmore and Sheikh Mohammed, the superpowers of the horse racing and breeding industry have never been better also. So much so that in an earlier horse trade with Sheikh Mohammed, the Ruler of Dubai gave Queen Elizabeth II four unraced yearlings. One of which turned out to be Carlton House. The Queen had previously given the Sheikh a talented horse that had become quirky and unreliable. The Sheikh had wished to purchase it, but the Queen wouldn’t accept payment and instead the niceties of the exchange of gifts took place. QEII certainly got the better end of the bargain. A race Godolphin and Sheikh Mohammed so desperately try and win each year could be won by the Queen as a result of their generosity. All is not lost for the boys in blue however, as the breeding line of Carlton House is largely supported by Sheikh Mohammed and would benefit greatly in kind from a royal win.

The Queen has won all the four other English Classics but the Derby still eludes her. In 1953 she was 2^nd with Aureole and it’s been a barren spell since then.

At the time of writing Carlton House has passed fit to run tomorrow. He had a scare on Monday that set his participation in doubt and the people at Epsom and the BBC must have feared the worst, the massive public draw of the Queen’s runner the Unique Selling Point of this years Derby for sure. Can the PR dream year of the monarchy continue and in turn be a dream year for racing. I think it may just. Carlton House is a skinny enough price at the current 9/4 and is little value. That won’t stop him winning.

The Derby is at 4pm Saturday and is live on BBC

Post by Peter Kingston. I will comment below here in the morning on the way I think this race will pan out. Its be a turbulent week in the run up to the Derby. Between the favourite's injury scare and now the injuction case against Fallon riding Recital, all is unclear at the moment. We will know for definite the runners and riders in the morning so we can really study!