Dive in for Mo

An extraordinary sporting 12 months for Great Britain in 2012 and to mark this astonishing year, 12 nominees will be chosen as special dispensation by an expert panel including Denise Lewis, Tanya Grey Thompson and Steve Redgrave to contest BBC Sports Personality of the Year. The event will return to its usual Sunday night slot on December 16^th.  The beeb were left red faced last year with no women on the shortlist but one can assume a diverse list this year including women and paralympians. This will be nothing short of what the likes of Jessica Ennis, Ellie Simmonds and David Weir deserve. The head of the betting though is still male dominated with Wiggins, Farah and Murray with their supporters.   

I’m not going to bore you with whose sporting achievements outweigh each other’s in such a golden year. A mention however for someone who will be lost in the galaxy of stars that will hit the Excel to be honoured. I am in awe of what the Brownlee brothers achieved this year and they will hardly get a look in on the night, Alistair will possibly be one of the 12. Alistair came back from a torn hamstring in January to win gold in the Triathlon at the Olympics, his brother Johnny bronze despite a time penalty and finishing physically exhausted and violently ill for a special medal double for family and country. Johnny won the Triathlon World Championships recently to cap a wonderful year. To put into context of Alistair’s greatness for those not familiar with triathlon, he completed 1500m swim, 43km on the bike and a 10km run in 1hour and 46mins. His 10km run at the end of this gruelling test was only 97 seconds slower than Mo Farah’s gold winning run for the same distance on the track. In another year his accomplishments would have to be recognised.

I digress. Who’ll win, what’s the value they scream. Who deserves it and emotion have no place here. I like to treat the BBC SPOTY like I’d treat a political election in terms of betting and possible outcomes. Sport popularity, people’s perception, vote sharing, demographic that vote and what BBC show on the night all has a part to play. In that sense the final 12 will have a knock on effect on the votes the main protagonists may receive. For example Wiggins cause may be diluted the more cyclists on the shorlist; Hoy, Storey, Pendelton, Kenny and Trott all possibles. Poulter and McIlroy may split a golf vote, while one or other would be more dangerous. Andy Murray will fly solo for Tennis and have a patriotic Scottish vote unless Hoy is involved. Mo Farah, Jessica Ennis and Greg Rutherford you may say would split an athletics vote. Weir, Simmonds and Storey are all paralympians with fantastic achievements but may split votes from those inspired watching the channel 4 action earlier this year. Weir for me was particularly sensational, winning 4 golds from 4 events, 800m up to marathon in the ultra-competitive wheelchair racing events.

The Storm begins...

“It’s only when the tide goes out that you see who’s swimming naked” Warren Buffett

Sometimes they call it Hobson’s Choice. More accurately it is termed Morton’s Fork, a situation in which no choice can lead to a good outcome, yet a decision must be made. Such was the case with the recent decision by the Scottish Premier League to reject the application of Newco Rangers’ application for membership. There was a choice between fatally crippling the economic model of the SPL or breaching the integrity of the game by making an exception on pragmatic grounds. Either choice meant the end of the SPL as we know it, and no matter what decision they came to, there was going to be a huge degree of buyer’s remorse.

Glasgow Rangers are now by some margin the most high-profile club ever to fold. The Old Firm, the colloquial name for their rivalry with Glasgow Celtic, was one of the world’s great sporting feuds. Granted, it was rather uglier than most footballing rivalries (eight deaths were attributed to Old Firm clashes between 1996 and 2003), and its sectarian tint was a stain on Scottish football for decades, but at the same time it was one of the most exciting matches on the calendar. Now those days are in the past. Celtic have, for the moment, achieved total victory over their rivals.

The question is, what now, for Rangers, Celtic, and the SPL as a whole? This isn’t like Portsmouth going south a few years ago. Portsmouth were a very small fish in the biggest pond of them all. Rangers were a very big fish in a very small pond. Their collapse is more analogous to the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, an event of such scale that it threatens to take down the whole system.

The obvious thing is preventing such events recurring. The problem is that this was what Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls a Black Swan event, one that was outside the normal parameters of foreseeability. The tax troubles that brought down Rangers could perhaps be prevented, but only by a more intrusive auditing mechanism by the league as a whole. Other clubs, whose own debt positions might not be as benign as an initial glance could suggest, would undoubtedly not be too fond of anything that might shed light on their problems. And even this is a specific solution to a more general problem, namely the vulnerability of already indebted clubs to financial shocks. Tax issues are not the only way a club could suddenly find its debt position worsening suddenly. The reality is that the tax problems were a symptom of greater issues with Rangers’ finances, rather than the underlying cause of their woes.

If tax issues were a high-impact, low-probability event for Rangers, then the demise of Rangers was doubly so for the SPL. A huge portion of the SPL’s revenue model was derived from Rangers and Celtic. The SPL has never been a model of fiscal probity, with five clubs having entered administration in the decade and a half that the league has been in existence. While the huge disparity between the Old Firm and the rest of the league was frustrating from a sporting point of view, the revenues accruing from the Glasgow giants were vital to the other clubs. Playing Rangers was a guarantee of good gate receipts.

More important were the TV deals. Following an internal renegotiation of the distribution of TV revenues in 2003, the SPL had a degree of redistribution of TV cash from the bigger clubs to the smaller ones. With TV deals being signed collectively by the league, the aggregate quality of clubs in the league is as important as the quality of any given club. The deal for the forthcoming five seasons is worth about £80m to the league. However, Sky and ESPN signed that deal on the basis of being able to screen four Old Firm games a season. With that out the window, a substantial downwards renegotiation of the TV deal is on the cards.

Anytime a club with a rich history drops out of sight is a loss for football. Leeds United’s fall from grace a decade ago certainly did the English Premiership no favours, what with there being no Yorkshire club left there, but Leeds were only one of a number of big clubs, and so their loss could be absorbed. There could still be high-profile matches in the Premiership without Leeds. Rangers were one of two top teams in the SPL. The qualitative difference between Celtic and the remaining teams is so great as to make the league a pointless affair for the foreseeable future.

If the SPL as a whole has lost out spectacularly from this, then Celtic’s loss has been greatest of all. All great sporting rivalries are inherently symbiotic affairs, and the Old Firm was the bitterest of them all. No other European pairing could match Celtic and Rangers for combined success and geographical proximity, the two primary factors from which rivalries are born. The sectarian side of things may have been unpleasant, but the bitterness made for some great matches. Much as they may detest their Glaswegian counterparts, Celtic are going to rue their absence. By some estimates the Old Firm was worth £120m for the two clubs and the surrounding area. In losing their greatest rivals, Celtic have also lost their greatest source of revenue.

In the short term, Celtic are going to romp through the league. Rangers were the only ones who came close to giving them a run for their money. It’s been a quarter of a century since another club won the league, and six years since another finished second. For the next few years we can assume that clubs are going to line up to have Celtic destroy them. However, in the medium term, Celtic’s greatly diminished revenue will impact on their purchasing power, and the quality of their players is likely to disimprove. As a result, while the gap will never fully close, it is likely that Celtic will be gradually reduced to something more approximate to the quality of the rest of the league.

Meanwhile, the effects will be felt most strongly at the lower end of the scale. In voting against allowing Newco Rangers to join, a number of SPL clubs may have cut their own throats. Never a paragon of prudent financial management, the SPL is facing the prospect of up to half its teams going into administration within the next year. The short term fillip of potential Champions League football for whoever now finishes second is only going to last until UEFA reallocate the spot to a more deserving league in football terms. Each club also had the guaranteed money spinner of hosting Rangers at least twice a season, as well as a share in the TV money pot. With these gone, the financial pinch will be all the more acute.

The major question is what should happen next. In the least bad scenario, the SPL clubs come to their (fiscal) senses and bring Newco Rangers into the fold. In the absence of full agreement, a breakaway league would be a possibility, as would folding the four tiers of Scottish football into two so as to shorten the time it would take Rangers to get back to the top, though this would have the consequence of reducing Old Firm games to two a season. Assuming that there is no consensus on these, things get messy.

The first imperative is to get Celtic out of the SPL. Without the Old Firm, it would only be a matter of time before Celtic find themselves staring down the barrel of financial ruin. Meanwhile, the situation for other clubs does not improve. Once UEFA take the second Champions League spot from Scotland, any club has to mount a challenge to Celtic. Winning a Rangers-free SPL will be every bit as hard as coming second in the old one. Meanwhile, the overwhelming dominance of Celtic would rapidly make the SPL a rather disinteresting affair. However, if Celtic left the league, there would at least be some competition. Each club would now have a shot at Champions League football, albeit at an earlier start point than before. In addition, the financial burden on the other clubs would be reduced, as each would have to build a squad to beat each other, rather than the vastly richer Celtic. In the short term, there would be a financial hit, but it would be less than expected. Most of the damage to the TV deal was done when Rangers left, and the loss of the second Glasgow club would not be much more problematic. Meanwhile, attendances might actually pick up if teams thought they had a shot at winning the league, rather than coming second.

For Celtic, too, the exit is the only way to avoid catastrophe. Even if the English Premiership didn’t take them, the Championship would still be worth it, particularly if the club was capable of being promoted. The alternative is a steady decline in Scotland. Celtic are too big for the SPL, and their continued presence there will only harm both parties in the long run.

There are wider lessons to be learned from this mess. The deepening weakness of balance sheets in the SPL and beyond have left clubs supremely vulnerable to system shocks. As clubs have amassed ever greater amounts of debt, and player wages continue to spiral out of control, a point has now been reached where carnage is inevitable. Even in the good times, SPL clubs were still going into administration, and with the loss of Rangers and the revenue therein, the situation is doomed to worsen. A league with this level of volatility will never function properly.

What is to be done? The SPL may now face a massive correction that sees it reduced in stature to something similar to the other secondary leagues in the British Isles. For other leagues, there is still a chance to mitigate the problem. Forcing clubs to hold cash equivalent to a certain proportion of their revenues would go a long way towards strengthening their balance sheets. Wage and transfer controls would enable clubs to plan effectively for the future. And keeping public accounts would alert authorities to clubs in danger at an early stage.

The reality is that no business is risk-free. However, in a football league all parties have a certain degree of interdependence, and therefore a responsibility to each other. Other clubs will be dragged under by Rangers’ demise. And the SPL is not alone. Rangers may well be the first of a string of clubs to pass from administration into liquidation. Already Portsmouth look to be inching towards the brink. In Germany, FC Schalke still labour under the weight of the debt they incurred building the Veltins-Arena a decade ago, while in Holland, Feyonoord’s ongoing failure to make an impression in Europe has pushed it into the danger zone.

However, the country with the most to learn from Rangers’ collapse is Spain, where, like the SPL, the league is a duopoly where the two main clubs have grossly disproportionate clout. The difference is that the sums in Spain are much, much bigger. Over the past fifteen years, Barcelona and Real Madrid have engaged in a titanic arms race that has seen the two clubs pay the five highest transfer fees in history, at the cost of stacking up mountains of debt. While both clubs now look reasonably stable, the same would have been said of Rangers a year ago. A robust facade hides a deep vulnerability to the unexpected. The problem is, the unexpected will be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.

The debt spiral in European football has been claiming peripheral casualties for years. This may be remembered as the point where major clubs start going under. The onus is on leagues and governing bodies to protect the future of the game, lest it not be so beautiful anymore.




Post by Greg Bowler

The Elephant in the Room

37% - Ireland’s win ratio under Declan Kidney against the world’s top nations.

8th – Ireland’s current world ranking, our lowest since the rankings began.

15, 14, 12, 11, 10, 8, 6, 4, 3, 2, 1 – the numbers where the same player started every single 2012 Six Nations match.


Irelands regression as a top international test playing rugby nation has been startling. From the heights of the Grand Slam in 2009 and the record participation on that summers Lions tour by Irish players to the defeat to Scotland in the final game in Croke Park, to the last minute win over Italy in Rome last year and now the humiliation of being defeated easily by a limited England side. Add to that the three losses in a row to Wales, a team made up of players who regularly taste defeat at the hands of the Irish provinces and the result is that Ireland are now sitting below Argentina in the IRB world ranking. The slide has been steady and would be a whole lot more visible if it were not for the wins against England and Australia in the last year. Those wins were great, strong Irish performances, stunned over 80 minutes which yielded unexpected results. These successes are now tainted; we now see that these momentous occasions were aberrations, exceptions to the norm, mere glimpses of the potential that lies within this group of players. Yet that is what it is, potential, and it will continue to remain just that until there is fundamental change in the way the IRFU and the Irish management do their business.


If you pick up the papers in the past few days and read the sports columns discussing the Irish performance of the weekend and most of the blame seems to lie in Ireland’s lack of strength in depth. Ah that old chestnut, strength in depth, I’m always bewildered at this argument put forward by the rugby journalists, they decry Ireland lack of options in several positions yet never seem to put pressure on the coach to introduce players at a younger age. Irelands Six Nations campaign effectively ended when Wales scored that last minute penalty in Lansdowne Road, from there we couldn’t win the Grand Slam, couldn’t win a Triple Crown and the likelihood was we couldn’t win the championship. In the first year of a world Cup cycle we have effectively waster perfectly good opportunities to see if guys like Ronan Loughney, Jamie Hagan, Paul Marshall and Dan Touhy have what it takes to cut it at Test level. Loughney and Hagan, two tighthead props, offer the best alternatives to Mike Ross who as we saw to our cost on Saturday is now as indispensable to Ireland as his predecessor, John Hayes, became. The fact that neither player has an international cap to their name is a damning inditement of a coach who is so shackled by conservatism that it is now crippling this team. Kidney, aided by Gert Small, wasted two years trying to turn Tony Buckley into a competent Test playing tighthead, two years when Ross and Hagan were playing regularly and well for their clubs yet it was only when it became glaringly apparent that Buckley would never make it was Ross drafted in. It was a shocking neglection of their responsibilities. Take another case, one of the few success stories of the championship, Munsters Donnacha Ryan, the guy would never have started a game if it wasn’t for the injury to captain Paul O’Connell despite that fact that he’s been selected all season ahead on Donncha O’Callaghan at Munster and when he replaced the former against Italy and Wales he made a huge impact and showed O’Callaghan up big time. Seeing Tómas O’Leary coming on against England was the tipping point for me. Here’s a guy who is at best second choice at Munster, has been injured most of the season and is clearly out of form, yet another in form Irish qualified scrum half, Paul Marshall, has been playing exceptionally well for Ulster all season where he has pushed Ruan Pienaar all the way for the number 9 shirt. O’Leary’s selection was a slap in the face to Marshall and make a mockery of the coaches pledge to pick the form players. There is simple too much loyalty, too much blinkered thinking being displayed by this management team.

Another issue which I believe has impacted hugely on the sides performance is the fact that for a sizable number of the current squad they have been listening to the same voice for too long. Since 2001 Declan Kidney has been assistant coach with Ireland, head coach with Munster for two separate period with a year in charge of Leinster sandwiched in between and has been head coach with Ireland for nearly four years.



A change may be exactly what this squad needs. There has been no indication from the IRFU that Kidney will be asked to step down and there appears to be no pressure coming from the media for him to do so either. I wonder are Ireland missing a beat on that account. Wayne Smith, John Kirwan and Nick Mallett – all top class coaches and all available right now. The next Ireland coach in my opinion needs to be from outside the country, free from any provincial baggage, a person who can take an objective view on the state of the nation. This Ireland team needs a clean break, a fresh start and then maybe we will finally see this talented group of player fulfil their potential.

First Game, First Down

We all know the feeling. Somebody has just called your bluff. Bollox why’d I go all in on a pair of fours? Not only will you have to suffer the shame of bowing out of the game, you’ll be forced to show to the table – and by extension – the world, that you can write plenty of cheques but when it comes to cashing them you’re about as secure as an Irish banking institution. The aura you so confidently eluded mere minutes before has evaporated as quick as the sweat patches formed under your arms. It all seemed so easy as you pushed the green chips to the middle of the table. Surely nobody will call me? I’ll re-raise just to be safe.......Soon enough you’ve the rent money on the table and you’re pricing how much food will cost you for the rest of the week. In the immortal words of Mick McCarthy – your arse in the bacon slicer.

In the bigger more fluid game of poker, that is American Football, I’d long since re-mortgaged the house with boasts of 50 yard field goals. Within the blink of an eye, Round 1 arrived and my bravado would actually be tested. All the practice with Coach Ramos would be put to the test in the ultimate arena – a live competitive sporting event. I’ve had a fairly successful couple of months in training. My kicking percentage has increased and my bad kicks have nearly disappeared. I am far from nailing all my kicks but I look like a kicker now. Throughout the pre-season, the team had lost a punter so I was called into fulfil that duty as well. Initially this was the position I had wanted but without much practice, I was going to have to wing it. My kickoffs were frankly rubbish until our Defensive Tackle Dave spotted a flaw in my style. A quick change and I was pinning the opposition back with my kickoffs. All this though was in the friendly environment of Spartans Training. The New Jersey Pitbulls wouldn’t be so nice about it.

After getting padded up, I was presented with my jersey. I’d requested the number 32 (an ode to my Sinn Fein days and a goal all Irish Republicans strive towards) and the club had come good for me. The jersey fitted me but the questions as to whether I could fill it out or not still lingered. A quick warm up later and it was time for the coin toss. I was hoping if we won the toss to receive first thus delaying my debut onto the field. In this regard I was not so lucky. The call went up for the kickoff team and all I could do was bless myself and say to Him what he must be sick of hearing from me at this stage – please don’t let me feck this up. I had what I’d best describe as first date nerves: if this goes well I’m going to be very happy and will wonder why I worried but if I goes badly I’ll have to delete her number and I’ll never be able to frequent certain bars again. In this case she drinks in my local so the stakes were high. In near blind panic I asked the ref where the kickoff was from. (Interestingly nobody from the Spartans organisation thought this was important information to tell me). All he would say was the same place as the NFL. Tentatively I placed the ball on the 35 yard line and awaited a whistle. I stepped back 10 yards, cupped my hands a la Johnny Wilkinson, took a deep breath and let rip. Seconds later the ball was stopped at their 35 and I trotted off happy in the knowledge that Act 1 had went well.

Two punts later and I was suddenly up and about. The previous play a Pitbull had tried to clean my out when I came into the vicinity of the play. I’d spotted him a mile off but didn’t move until he got close. Some pleasantries were exchanged and now I was riled up. In training, I half seriously asked the coaches to let me stretch my legs and throw the fake punt – essentially the plan was to pin back my ears and run for Ireland.  On this day Coach Moss had identified a weak link in their defensive set up and was actually keen for me to exploit it. Coach Moss is an intense dude come game day. He is the sort of person who would have excelled in the Gaelic Athletic Association – a man so passionate about his area and his sport that he self-funded the Spartans and who dedicates his life to the cause. When he places his confidence in you, it is a real morale boaster. So on my fifth punt of the game, he gave the signal. My “protector” G was to make a hole and I was to run through it until I got passed the first down marker. G and I have struck up what must be as unlikely a friendship as they come – the kid from West Africa and the kid from the West of Ireland shouldn’t have much common ground. But we share a passion to do our best and I knew I was in good hands if he was going to be making the hole. The snap came and predictably I fumbled it. When I picked it up, I raised my head just in time to see G clean a bloke out.

Hello hole, hello first down, I don’t think we’ve met before.

I was bundled out of bounds (please, I’m way too pretty to try and cut in field) and arose to a mass of green and black shirts congratulating me. On the next play our running back Goose showed me how to properly exploit a hole and suddenly we were a different animal. Alas it all arrived too late for us to change the outcome but in that short spell we should why we’ll be contenders come the summer.

Every so often the last card dealt is another 4 and you sit there and try to contain your joy as you casually extend your arms to collect your chips along with his. Your swagger back, you reassure everybody that you knew what you were doing but under it all you thank God and convince yourself you’ll never gamble again. Well until next Saturday that is. Roll on the rest of the season.

Follow Seamus on twitter @fbspecial

Gold Cup Day

Exhausted, emotional and confused after 3 long days. But as Catch Me did not get up under AP in the 2nd today we are still in the game. 2 winning days were followed by a shocker today both as a layer and a bettor. As a bookmaker the Pertemps was the only race we didn't lose on the day. Some relief, the audacious gamble on the JP owned Catch Me just fell short. Big Bucks broke the hearts of Willie Mullins trio and Henderson's Oscar Whisky in the World hurdle today in awesome style. Case closed, he is the greatest stayer of all time! How folly of me to doubt him. Andrew Lynch rode a wonderful race to challenge last on Voler La Vedette, switching to the outside of Big Bucks as he veered left, whilst trying not to eyeball the Dicheat machine. All in vein. Ruby did it the hard way today. Big Bucks was nearly at his most impressive, even after all this time.

A brief few thoughts on Day 4 
Triumph is double dutch to me. Take Countrywide Flame to enjoy better galloping test on good ground ew.

County Hurdle I fancy an Irish winner. Citizenship's form is working out fantastically and I also like the smooth travelling and pacey Redera ew with most firms paying 5 places.


Boston Bob will be the Irish banker on Day 4 in the Albert Bartlett. He excites all the Mullins team but his price reflects the hype.Reminds me of pre So Young last year in the Neptune. I'll take the hugely impressive Brindisi Breeze last time out ew for some value.

Gold Cup 2012
1 Burton Port    Small solid stayer. Jumps well. Stable Flying. Should be placed at least.
2 Carruthers  Quality handiacpper. Races prominently. Good jumper. Not good enough.
3 China Rock  Classy type. Hasn't been himself lately. Excuse latest. Travel real well, won't stay.
4 Diamond Harry  Fragile Horse. V good on his day. Badly out of form. Not the biggest shock though.
5 Kauto Star  Different horse this year. Handling races well, staying gallantly, best form. Nicholls form?
6 Knockara Beau Stays well.Solid handicapper with some excellent hurdling form.Held by Midnight Ch'
7 Long Run  Looks sluggish this year,Jockey the same! Still should be good enough.Henderson......
8 Midnight Chase  Interesting in a poor Gold Cup if soft lead. Won't get breather though.
9 Quel Esprit  Thought Hennessy was awful.Tired horse after.Yet some judges make a case.Surely not
10 Synchronised Impressed by the manner of his victory lto more than the form. If it rains, charge ew
11 The Giant Bolster Solid Handicapper. Am I repeating myself. Cheltenham specialist. Cool Dawn stuff
12  The Midnight Club  Will be staying on. Needs them to go around again though.Out to nick a place
13 Time for Rupert Classy type on his day.Has lost his way.Needs to find himself!Not biggest shock
14 Weird Al  More realistic. Goes well fresh. Unexposed at top class. Short enough now.
15 What a Friend Will travel well.Finds little.Ran well last year.But his lack of battle, place at best.

Conclusion; Do you notice all the negatives! It's that sort of race. Mad to take on Long Run and Kauto Star but by the time you go down through them, process of elimination, your left with nothing! Kauto Star is best this year. If not for age, suspect 3m2f in Gold Cup and Nicholls stable form he'd be the most likely winner by a way. Are we worried about him and the hill or is that bolony?! Twice gold cup winner and all that. Was it his class that made up for lack of stamina all along. This year stamina looks his forte. Long Run should be improving or at least at his peak, but he's been poor this year. If he turns up 100% he wins. I used to defend Sam Waley Cohen. But 2/1 about him this year. Ruby's made him look ridiculous, especially in Haydock. Need to have a bet?! Suppose Burton Port should be placed. Barry Geraghty and Nicky Henderson. Trainer tick, Jockey tick, Recent form tick, Stamina tick, jumping tick, Class; does it matter this year...... Burton Port ew  To make up for spilt whisky today!
Maybe China Rock back to lay. Forget last run, too keen, jumped poorly. Expect him to travel well tomorrow but stamina will be an issue, get out before the hill!!


Foxhunters
Prefer the Irish form. Salsify 1/4 1-4 looks very fair bet.

Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Hurdle
Dan Breen and Grandads horse each way. Tough tough race

Grand Annual
Kid Cassidy reading between the lines has been AP's idea of a Cheltenham winner for the past few months. Excited by the prospect of a big field in a handicap going a proper gallop. This may bring out the fact that he's well handicapped. His jumping has got better but is still a worry. So maybe not an each way proposition but win. I'll take Eradicate to fly up the hill for Henderson, again. He is a hardened handicappper that like Kid Cassidy will appreciate the rough and tumble of a festival race, and the good ground.

Weight of the World on his Withers

Thursday - Cheltenham - Day 3

1.30 Jewson Novices Chase
Peddlers Cross is joint favourite here for on fire trainer Donald McCain. One has to respect his decision to go for the Jewson instead of the RSA. In hindsight he's probably right as not much would have put it up to Bobs Worth and First Lieutenant today. He's won a Neptune and been second in a Champion Hurdle, his two chasing debuts were full of potential and satisfaction for connections. It's went a bit pear shaped since then but the price has room allowed for this. At 7/2, it's big enough for me to trust McCain has produced the horse to peak once again at the festival. A clean round and I feel he's the best horse in the race. Sir Des Champs is respected but is skinny enough while For Non Stop and Michael Flips are interesting at the prices.

2.05 Pertemps Final
The money horse all week has been once Champion Hurdle contender Catch Me. 25's to 12s he is certainly well enough handicapped on old form to win. It's been 3 and a half years since he's won though and the value has gone out of the price to be joining the charge late on. Sonofvic strikes me as potentially progressive but the fact that Ruby doesn't ride is a negative. The best have chose wrong before though so I'll include the Nicholls charge. Pineau De Rea is the other horse I think could be ahead of the handicap and a very big price. Fenton's charge should love the ground.

2.40 Ryanair
It's unreal how competitive this race is. You could pour over it for hours and find an angle for every different horse in the race. The point is though that there is nothing between them and how the race is run, tactics and jumping will win the day. Rubi Light would be the choice if any juice in the ground. Otherwise tentatively I reckon Noble Prince will run a place because of the ground and his run style, and possible improvement from a recent wind op. Somersby should of ran in the Champion Chase.

3.15 World Hurdle

When I look at this race I think that about 6 horses are value other than the favourite, meaning only one thing. They can't all win but the favourite is too short. Big Buck's been imperious but he faces his toughest challenge yet. Oscar Whiskey, whose form was franked from the Relkeel hurdle today by GMOOH and Cockney Trucker is a classy hurdler who could bridge the gap between class and stamina needed in the cocktail needed to beat beat Big Bucks.He holds Thousand Stars( County Hurdle winner) up to 2m4f but 3m will be interesting. It's plausible though Oscar Whiskey has improved this year and is a stronger proposition ready to hit heights in the 3m division.



So Young is very intriguing to in his first try in the deep end this year. An old cliche but he could be anything.Only for a momentum stopping mistake last year he could have won the Neptune, where he was third to First Lieutenant and Rock on Ruby. He's had an easy year picking off prizemoney for often little more than a gallop so So Young is a fresh horse returning for another crack at the festival. One race he beat Trifolium well on soft ground over 2m which was not nothing either.
I'm really keen to take on Big Bucks. From Oscar Whisky,So Young and Thousand Stars he has real challenge to his crown. The race has real depth as well with Dynaste, Mourad, Voler La Vedette, Carlito Brigante and Mikael D'Haguenet with real place prospects.
Oscar Whisky rates as a cracking each way bet tomorrow at 9/2. Only worry is that he fell when looking like going to win versus Overturn at Christmas, made mistakes early in last years Champion and late on in the previous year's Supreme. On the up side he may jump better over 3 miles. So Young each way without Big Bucks looks a bet also. But mainly I'll be laying Big Bucks for my small lot at 8/13 or so.



All that said, of course Big Bucks can win tomorrow, I just think he's far too short. If he does his status will go from one of the best, to the greatest ever stayer in my opinion. I'm willing to take that chance. The pressure of the world may prove to much for 4th time.

Interesting to note that maybe tomorrow the opposite will happen to the cliche norm.......In running punters often brag correctly that they backed Big Bucks at enhanced odds in running when he hit his notorious flat spot and still wins. During the percieved 'flat spot' tomorrow in may infact be the 'fatal spot' in the race to regain his crown. And if he were to be beaten, value may be had in running against him too. Punters may not judge the race on it's merits but may be willing and ready to take bigger prices no matter what the circumstances.

4.00 Byrne Group Plate
Glam Gerry and Hectors Choice are taken against the field.

4.40 Kim Muir
Midnight Appeal the tentative selection.

Grand Renewal

Wednesday -Day 2

Quick ground is expected as the drying course gets no water overnight. I'm short on time but I fancy tomorrow's card as a bookmaker. That said, there are plenty of offers to make up for some of the difficulties of the contests.

1.30 The 4 Miler
Between TeaforThree and Allez Garde for me. Either running well would give a boost to Join Together and/or First Lieutenant in the RSA. TeaforThree is a gorgeous type who is preferred if handling the ground, he will love the trip.

2.05 Neptune Novices Hurdle
Still reeling Fingal Bay hasn't made it.....How far?!  We have what we have though and I'm not inspired. The market is latching on to Simonsig and he is priced on potential. Sous Les Cieux is also priced on potential. I suppose if Monksland was trained by WP Mullins he'd be 3's but I'm still not convinced by trainer record and other factor's. I hope for a result. Benefficient is probably overpriced and may be an ew poke.

2.40 RSA Chase
What a renewal. This is a corker. Grand Crus running here has gave it a serious shot in the arm. I am however happy to lay him. The one I am most happy yo take him on with is First Lieutenant. I was with the Gigginstown Stud horse ante post in the winter at 14s and 16s knowing full well to draw a line through poor runs on soft ground. The subsequent collapse in price due to various tipsters putting him up as their selections though made me change my mind. Even up until days ago I considered him short enough considering he's had his problems( bled and back problems). Tomorrow though on further examination; he's ticking a hell of a lot of boxes. Ground, Course Form, Festival Form ( Rock on Ruby finished behind him in the Neptune last year!) and I'm happy to take the trainer's assurances he's back in good form. The jockey is as good a big day rider as you'll get. He is becoming more attractive nearer the race. Bobs worth going left handed on a course he loves will be a different proposition. He is a worthy main protagonist. Join Together is potentially very good and should enjoy the spring ground. All in all the depth of the race leaves me willing to take on Grand Crus at 6/4 or shorter. The race might be run to suit Mouse Morris' trained charge and in a late u-turn he is my selection.


Champion Chase
In my opinion the prices are bang on and I cant get enthusiastic about it for a bet. Evs is a fair price Sizing europe. If you thought Kauto Stone would handle quicker ground he may be ew value. No bet.

Coral Cup
Balgarry could be chucked in and would have to earn a 1pt win at around 7s. Others that interest me are Veiled and Megastar. 5 places ew about the latter 2 may represent value.

Fred Winter
Nil is agam

Champion Bumpion
Lazy selections the highly regarded The New One and the horse in the field most likely to run it's race is the rack solid Jezki, who has the best form in the book for me.

Happy punting.

Flying with the Wind

Day one. One thirty. The roar of the crowd. It doesn't get much better than this.

Supreme Novices 1.30

The JP McManus owned Darlan is favourite here at 5/1. There is fierce good vibes coming from the Henderson and McManus camp;fuelled by the Preview evening cicuit, where Geraghty has rated him well better than Tetlami, Frank Berry’s best idea of a JP winner and different pundits saying what price would he be had he not fallen when travelling well in the Betfair hurdle. All fair points but he is nearly priced on potential rather than what he’s done.

Steps to Freedom has winning course form and has plenty of good flat, bumper and hurdle form in the book. His layoff is a worried but by all accounts by design. I love it’s trainer Jessica Harrington and trust her to have the Statue of Liberty gelding ready to thrive. One bit of news that it hammered Oscar Wells in apiece of work last week has seen the price tumble, but if the video is true,then it had to tumble! Bear in mind though Oscar Wells is not a great workhorse at home.

The joker in the pack may be Dylan Ross trained by Noel Meade. Joker in more ways than one. 2^nd I don’t know how many times, this horse excites his trainer and especially Paul Carberry. This year he only got goodish ground once and ran a cracker 2^nd to Cash and Go (absent) at Leopardstown at Christmas. He is supposed to have had a breathing operation which may help him to finish out his races somewhat better. This horse will not love the hill! But Carberry will ride him to sleep to finish in the best possible position at the end, and therefore makes him a corking each bet at the somewhat disrespectful price of 40/1 with some firms at present. He should travel like a dream and make for a bet to lay option in running. Carberry holds him in high regards which makes me keep the faith with him tomorrow. Better ground and a big pace to run at will help greatly.With a bit of luck PC can give punters heart palpitations all over again with a Harchibald style spin. The owners from Clogherhead have a right to be full of hope heading over, what a thrill it is to have a runner in the opener.

Midnight Game, who defeated Dylan Ross in Navan would be a real contender in my opinion until the news that he has worked bad in the immediate run up to the race, hence the drift. Previously his work at home was electric (according to D Russell) who now rides safer proposition Trifolium whose recent form has worked out giving him an each way chance.

Selection  Steps to Freedom win, Dylan Ross each way.

Arkle

The mighty Sprinter Sacre is barely odds on in this hot, all be it thin renewal. He looks a machine. Could a wind operation have made him bomb proof or does it matter that he’s that good over fences anyway. The punters of Al Ferof at 5/1 each way ¼ 1,2,3 will not fret no matter what happens. He is sure to run his race, be staying on up the hill and if something gets into a battle with the gallant grey, they’ll most likely come out the worst. The key to this race is Cue Card. If he leads at a fast pace, he will run himself into the ground, slit throats with Menorah and most likely set the race up for Henderson’s hotpot. If he were to take a lead, it’s the only way I see him winning and alternatively Sprinter Sacre being beaten. As Geraghty’s mount may be free with a slow gallop or a horse upsides getting him to race early. Menorah has the raw pace for an arkle making him a win proposition but jumping puts me off. Taking the Tizzards on the word I reckon they will set it up for Sprinter Sacre putting in a big display. I’d be surprised if Cue Card and Menorah both got round but I hope I’m wrong.

 

Selection; Sprinter Sacre   (Take the industry biggest in morning as they are ferociously competing for everyones business and I can see him going off 4/6 or 8/13)

Champion Hurdle

Another Grade One, another wind op. Has Binoculars recent procedure brought him back to his best. I’m willing to think not and happy to lay him at the current prices. He however is a class jumper on his day, cat like, just like Ireland’s banker Hurricane Fly. I cannot fault this horse. His price is about right. He’s been as impressive this year as any. Ruby will ride him to perfection and he is a bit special. That said; my idea of a bet in the race is Zarkandar each way. I like his profile. Course winner, stayer, in good recent form winning despite a slow pace in Newbury when Darlan fell. Most importantly of all though is that Zarkandar, we are told by Paul Nicholls will improve bundles for that run and will improve also for a stronger pace. He is a similar type to proven course winner and stablemate Rock on Ruby. Oscar Wells is an awkard enough jumper but will also improve for quicker ground and has a big engine. His price is about right now but wouldn’t be surprised if it ran a place. Zaidpour is only running as ground will be at its softest all week than, not soft enough however for this classy type Kalann not the worst 200/1 shot that ever ran and Overturn at big prices are perfectly acceptable as the throwaway bets each way.

Selection:  Zarkandar ew

JLT Speciality Handicap Chase 2.40

Quantitative Easing, Baile Anrai and Fruity O’Rooney ew    Selection the latter

Glenfarclas Cross Country  4.00

This is run in the centre of the course and as they are unable to water it will be firm. Looking for good ground specialists in this it surprised me that many handle firm. Scotsirish is fav as he is classier over chase fences but that mightn’t be reason enough to make him favourite for this unique test. My only thoughts are that Uncle Junior should run a big race have taking kindly to cross country (what better prepation than Tramore!)

Otherwise I think Garde Champetre is a place lay as his best days are behind him and he’d appreciate a cut in the ground.

Selection ; Uncle Junior ew if 16 run, lay Garde Champetre place

OLBG Mares Hurdle

Quevega is miles clear once again on form book and is a very fair price at 1-2. She has taken liberty at her hurdles in the past though and news of her making a bad mistake schooling last week doesn’t inspire. Race rustyness with her jumping a slight negative. Once she doesn’t come down though she’ll still win. Backers might want to take 1/3 faller insurance if they really want to play. The scrap for places is really competitive. Baby Shine is progressive and may run well at a price. 

Selection; No Bet

Pulteney Novice Handicap Chase

Hunt Ball is really progressive and its form is working out a treat.

The selection; in a really tough handicap.

Kingbet are ¼ the odds all races at Cheltenham.

Kingbet are money back if your horse is 2^nd in the Supreme on singles to a €100 max.

Extra Placings, enhaced prices will be available in the shop from 8am each morning.

Good luck and enjoy for me the greatest week in horseracing.

Peter Kingston

Feel free to leave your thoughts and tips below in a comment!