Weight of the World on his Withers

Thursday - Cheltenham - Day 3

1.30 Jewson Novices Chase
Peddlers Cross is joint favourite here for on fire trainer Donald McCain. One has to respect his decision to go for the Jewson instead of the RSA. In hindsight he's probably right as not much would have put it up to Bobs Worth and First Lieutenant today. He's won a Neptune and been second in a Champion Hurdle, his two chasing debuts were full of potential and satisfaction for connections. It's went a bit pear shaped since then but the price has room allowed for this. At 7/2, it's big enough for me to trust McCain has produced the horse to peak once again at the festival. A clean round and I feel he's the best horse in the race. Sir Des Champs is respected but is skinny enough while For Non Stop and Michael Flips are interesting at the prices.

2.05 Pertemps Final
The money horse all week has been once Champion Hurdle contender Catch Me. 25's to 12s he is certainly well enough handicapped on old form to win. It's been 3 and a half years since he's won though and the value has gone out of the price to be joining the charge late on. Sonofvic strikes me as potentially progressive but the fact that Ruby doesn't ride is a negative. The best have chose wrong before though so I'll include the Nicholls charge. Pineau De Rea is the other horse I think could be ahead of the handicap and a very big price. Fenton's charge should love the ground.

2.40 Ryanair
It's unreal how competitive this race is. You could pour over it for hours and find an angle for every different horse in the race. The point is though that there is nothing between them and how the race is run, tactics and jumping will win the day. Rubi Light would be the choice if any juice in the ground. Otherwise tentatively I reckon Noble Prince will run a place because of the ground and his run style, and possible improvement from a recent wind op. Somersby should of ran in the Champion Chase.

3.15 World Hurdle

When I look at this race I think that about 6 horses are value other than the favourite, meaning only one thing. They can't all win but the favourite is too short. Big Buck's been imperious but he faces his toughest challenge yet. Oscar Whiskey, whose form was franked from the Relkeel hurdle today by GMOOH and Cockney Trucker is a classy hurdler who could bridge the gap between class and stamina needed in the cocktail needed to beat beat Big Bucks.He holds Thousand Stars( County Hurdle winner) up to 2m4f but 3m will be interesting. It's plausible though Oscar Whiskey has improved this year and is a stronger proposition ready to hit heights in the 3m division.



So Young is very intriguing to in his first try in the deep end this year. An old cliche but he could be anything.Only for a momentum stopping mistake last year he could have won the Neptune, where he was third to First Lieutenant and Rock on Ruby. He's had an easy year picking off prizemoney for often little more than a gallop so So Young is a fresh horse returning for another crack at the festival. One race he beat Trifolium well on soft ground over 2m which was not nothing either.
I'm really keen to take on Big Bucks. From Oscar Whisky,So Young and Thousand Stars he has real challenge to his crown. The race has real depth as well with Dynaste, Mourad, Voler La Vedette, Carlito Brigante and Mikael D'Haguenet with real place prospects.
Oscar Whisky rates as a cracking each way bet tomorrow at 9/2. Only worry is that he fell when looking like going to win versus Overturn at Christmas, made mistakes early in last years Champion and late on in the previous year's Supreme. On the up side he may jump better over 3 miles. So Young each way without Big Bucks looks a bet also. But mainly I'll be laying Big Bucks for my small lot at 8/13 or so.



All that said, of course Big Bucks can win tomorrow, I just think he's far too short. If he does his status will go from one of the best, to the greatest ever stayer in my opinion. I'm willing to take that chance. The pressure of the world may prove to much for 4th time.

Interesting to note that maybe tomorrow the opposite will happen to the cliche norm.......In running punters often brag correctly that they backed Big Bucks at enhanced odds in running when he hit his notorious flat spot and still wins. During the percieved 'flat spot' tomorrow in may infact be the 'fatal spot' in the race to regain his crown. And if he were to be beaten, value may be had in running against him too. Punters may not judge the race on it's merits but may be willing and ready to take bigger prices no matter what the circumstances.

4.00 Byrne Group Plate
Glam Gerry and Hectors Choice are taken against the field.

4.40 Kim Muir
Midnight Appeal the tentative selection.