Locals Farm Midweek Meeting 11/11/14

In the space of 90 minutes last Wednesday at Dundalk, local trainers won the last four races and a combined total of €22,080 prize money between them. Not bad! Ask Dad for Damian English of the Naul, Rose Angel for Peter Casey, Nedera - Tom McCourt and Minot Street representing John McConnell all triumphed for Stamullen. We are spoilt with another Wednesday fixture this week on top of the regular Friday meeting. It was a nice touch by Dundalk Stadium to give all those who attended on Friday night free entry for the additional midweek meeting.

Wednesday’s card will be quite low key compared to Friday; less quality and runners if the truth be told. There are a couple of interesting maidens though that often throws up a good horse or two. Maira should take a lot of beating in the fillies division. She was very green on debut for Shane Foley and Mick Halford. Pat Smullen was on board for her second start and I thought the champion jockey gave her a rare bad ride. Making ground wide on the outside at the crown of the home bend as the pace heated up, she led but Maira tired in the final furlong to be second. She should have the key experience and fitness edge over rivals to prevail. Whaileyy has been kindly treated by the handicapper, down 4lb for an eye-catching run behind Captain Joy and then won a claimer despite being wrong at the weights. Another probable winner for Halford though will most likely be short in the betting.   Elusive Laurence has decent prospects in the 10f race on its second start in a handicap, seeming to handle the step up in trip well the last day and now carries 3lb less.

I like the look of Friday’s card and Manorov could be the best bet on the night. Tom McCourt’s horse has caught the eye last twice now, staying on well despite wide trips and quite immature. The lightly raced gelding has been dropped 5lb in two starts, compare that to Minot Street who quite rightly has been put up 15lb for a couple of wins and you can see the appeal. Hardstone should be hard to beat in the 12f handicap. Second on his last two starts, the Johnny Murtagh trained 3yo colt has impressed, going too fast early last time and just nutted in the line by course specialist Gretzky. Creggs Pipes ran a cracker first time out last week behind Sharaasa; giving rivals a fierce start turning in off a slow gallop, was wide, green and finished off nicely in a quick last 3f. Up in trip she could run well at a big price if learning from her debut. The Slattery trained filly will have to beat the very solid Masterchippy and a host of well-bred debutantes but may just be the value. Strait of Zanzibar posted a really quick time here over a mile on its penultimate start and maybe a big price in the feature after below par run last time.     

Habitual run styles are now becoming apparent as we get familiar with the all-weather performers. Recent winners Havelock Ellis and Camakasi have both traded much higher betting in running for different reasons. Havelock Ellis hits serious flat spots in his races (has to be seriously driven along) and as a result has reached highs of 54/1 (SP 12/1) and 7/1 (SP 9/4) in his last two wins betting in running on the exchanges. Camakasi has made a habit of being slow away from the stalls lately and though he started 3/1 last Friday, he soon hit 40/1 after a slow start, going on remarkably to win. On the opposite end of the spectrum are those that flatter to deceive. Ability n Delivery in all 12 starts in 2014 has traded shorter than its SP during the race but has yet to win this year. The grey traded at 1/3 last week before finding little off the bridle and getting beat. The smooth travelling Elusive in Paris hasn’t won since May 2012 now; matched at 1/50 and 1/5 in Dundalk on last two starts, failing to win either. Sometimes it pays to be aware of horses traits during a race as betting opportunities can arise as a result. 

Halford Halloween Spectacular 4/11/14

Trainer Mick Halford gave bookies a good scare last Friday night when he had a four timer at odds of 50/1. Before last Friday Halford trained 21 winners from 295 runners in 2014 or a 7% strike rate, half that of 2013, where the Co. Kildare based trainer operated at 14%. You could argue that as a result of a quiet summer a lot of his horses are well handicapped. 6 of the stables last 10 runners have won and the yard could be set to dominate Dundalk for the rest of the winter series. Compare Halfords poor strike rate so far this year against Lynam 13% and Lyons 20% and you can see it was a strangely subdued summer. Ger Lyons admitted last Friday on the latest of his popular facebook updates that most of his string will be put away after a big season; it may leave the path clear for Halford to take advantage. 

Friday night there are a few entries that take my eye. Danz Gift should appreciate the step back in trip in the 5f Handicap. Poorly drawn last time out over 6f, the Sheila Lavery trained gelding was keen but made eye-catching ground in the penultimate furlong and just got tired late on.  Danseur de Feu done remarkably well to finish a close 4^th last week behind The Dancing Lord after blowing the start. Dropped 5lb since, if she can break better the Prendergast filly looks dangerously well handicapped. Hash Tag Hero could be a big price if the Andy Oliver gelding lines up in the mile maiden. He was dropped in at the rear last week from a wide stall in a race won by Venezia. This race was run at a crawl early on and they sprinted in the last 3f. The reason I was taken by this ordinary looking performance on paper, was how the horse on debut quickened from the rear as the pace heated up, wide around the final bend. Hash Tag Hero’s run flattened out in the straight but it was a run of much promise. Elsewhere on the card He’s Our Music and Eretara could do with some more luck in running than their respective last runs and could go close.

Whaileyy would be the nap on Wednesday evening in the Claiming race for the in form Michael Halford. This horse ran in a good race a fortnight ago behind Captain Joy, met trouble in running in the last couple of furlongs but hit the line really hard when he saw daylight again. His main rivals here all our susceptible; Akasaka is coming off a little break, Dashwood would prefer a softer surface and Bubbly Bellini is beatable and will make the market for Whaileyy. Norville,Hoppsan and Cheers Buddy should fight out the apprentice handicap after all running well last week and since been give some relief by the assessor, dropped 4,4 and 5lb in the ratings respectively. Nedera won cosily last week showing a fine turn of foot for local jockey Colin Keane and trainer Tom McCourt. Dropped 4lb by the handicapper before last week’s run, he will carry a mandatory 5lb penalty so run off a 63 rating, only 1lb higher than when winning Friday, which seems manageable. He is due to go up another 3lb and is therefore ‘well in’ at the weights. So Sensible would be the main danger as when last seen he was a good winner of a competitive Galway handicap.  I’d expect a much improved performance from Bairns at Bay in the fillies maiden, Ger Lyons’ seem to come on a bundle for their first run. Last but not least Doux Douce looks well treated on some of last year’s form where he was ridden curiously each run, a blazing front runner. Now with new connections and a new jockey, expect a more considered ride to harness the energy and obvious ability this horse has to exploit a lowly mark of 51.

I want to mention an anomaly that currently exists at Dundalk Racecourse. A Bar One betting office is located about 50 yards from the betting ring where about a dozen bookies stand up on average each week. Take the big race three weeks ago for example where Chance to Dance was awarded the Carlingford Stakes after Obliterator, first past the post was disqualified. Bookies on course paid on official result so Obliterator backers were left distraught. The betting shop at the track accepts singles and pay double result. Backers of both horses were paid and didn’t have a moments worry in the enquiry. Not only that, but your price is guaranteed in the shop. It leaves you wonder why people are betting outside in the ring at all. Is this fair? The on course bookmakers have significant expenses and I wonder is it a level playing field. Or is it time for the ring to adapt to survive. In any case the current situation can’t last, at least not if punters open their eyes. I should make it clear that this is not a precedent; I believe the Boylesports betting shop in Fairyhouse at Easter were the first ones to accept singles at the track in which they were present.