The Flat is Back

Messrs O’Brien, Weld, Bolger, Lyons, Oxx and Halford all hold entries on Dundalk’s Friday night card. All the big names have come to play and it’s understandable as they ready their artillery for the start of the Flat Turf season and Sunday and set fire to the engines.

Dundalk concludes the winter series this Friday, though there is racing at the County Louth venue next Wednesday, that will be part of the 2015 season proper. The column which I started in November has been fun to do. Holding my opinions to account on the upcoming action has been worthwhile and made me focus. The downside of the piece is that it is written early on Tuesday when declarations are still unknown so it’s hard to talk about a race in detail, and sometimes annoys discussing non -runners.

Since starting there has been 108 selections of which 86 ran, 26 winners meant a 30% strike rate.  If you had a €1 on each horse in bold you’d be plus €37.94 overall, a 44% profit on turnover. Those figures are calculated to SP so in an era where you can take morning prices and they are guaranteed, hopefully some of you got on even better. Five Claw 7/1-11/4, Grey Danube 14/1-6/1 and Burren View Lady 10/1-11/4 some of the more memorable ones. Of course drifters win too with Share a Secret winning for the column at 20/1. Let’s hope we can finish with a bang.

Octavia is a horse that has been entered and re-entered into my tracker as a result of very noteworthy runs. The David Marnane trained filly has had 4 starts but never troubled the judge, as a result is off a mark of 68 in Fridays 6f 3yo handicap. Her first run was satisfactory at Leopardstown when green and never really put into the race. Her 2^nd start at Dundalk was more eye-catching when ridden to the rear early and taking a wide trip throughout; there was plenty to suggest the grey Acclamation filly had ability. A run in a Naas maiden when nearly brought down mid race, heavily restrained and finishing full of running furthered the intrigue. On Octavia’s first handicap run last day of course I jumped the gun thinking a mark of 70 was generous enough starting point. Connor King didn’t really put her into the race in an overly patient ride and once again she finished with running left. I’d imagine she won’t be 100% fit on Friday but think that this is a fantastic opportunity to open Octavia’s account, even the extremely patient team of David Marnane should be keen to crack on now with this well handicapped filly.

There is an intriguing mile auction maiden for 3yo’s which Indian Tomahawk should head the betting being highest rated.  I feel could be short enough however as flattered to beat Charlie Bear in a slowly run race last time when the twice subsequent winning Charlie Bear wasn’t 100%. Maira is talented but quirky and just doesn’t want to win while Hat Alnasar is respected but form doesn’t set the world alight. Manny Owens and Navegante are two from smaller yards that may well be overpriced. Crucially Navegante avoids a 6lb penalty for winning and that will advantageous to the promising son of Lord Shanakill who will be well suited stepped back up to a mile.

A €20,000 7f handicap race for 3yo+ is the highlight of the evening and if the majority of the entries declare it will be a belter. Bishan Bedi has rapidly risen in the ranks since joining AP O’Brien going from a rating of 65-94. It’s significant that Aidan O’Brien has given him an entry in the Group 3 Gladness Stakes in April. Stay de Night has looked a star in the making for Dermot Weld though. The Shamardal gelding has a quick ground action and whilst probably better suited to a mile appeals off 100. On Champions weekend at Leopardstown he was beaten only 2l in 6^th after a rough race where he was hampered on a few occasions and finished full of horse with nowhere to go. Togoville would be a massive danger if on song. His form is as strong as there is this winter at Dundalk beating The Dancing Lord, Grey Danube and Have a Nice Day on his way to a mark of 91, a rating which he fully deserves and up to 7f should see him at his best again. Oor Jock is worth a mention back up to favoured 7f was very eye-catching last day when flashing home over 6f.

Jim Bolger should continue his good start to the season with County Wexford, though Cash or Casualty remains dangerously well handicapped if returning to form. Newcomers French Approach and Deor should fight out the 12f maiden and the market should give a good guide. The 10f 3yo maiden contains 3 Dermot Weld entries and whichever he runs I’d make the most likely winner.

Thank you for reading and hope to talk to you all again in September. 

County Wexford to Double Up

Once Cheltenham is over talk creeps in of the flat. One thing to help expedite that this year has been the introduction of the new format to the British Flat Jockey’s Championship. It will be a shorter season to crown a champion from the 2000 Guineas in Newmarket to Champions Day in Ascot. This wouldn’t have affected the result in the past 4 seasons. It may suit those in demand more as the likes of Ryan Moore won’t rue missed winners at home when riding internationally in early spring and late autumn.

Shane Gray from Dundalk has been a tremendous success story this winter campaign. Attached to the Kevin Ryan stable the County Louth man has rode many winners for Sheikh Mohammed’s Godolphin from the support of in form Charlie Appleby. He is leading apprentice for the UK All Weather season with 25 winners and is 8^th overall in the jockey standings. Grays quarter of a century didn’t come without a hitch; he took a terrible fall on the 3^rd of January at Lingfield and was lucky to escape with a collapsed lung. The ex-Champion Pony rider has 68 winners in his career so far and the future is very bright on the flat for Fifi Gray with Britain’s Flat Turf season on the horizon. With the might of Kevin Ryan behind him could we see a Dundalk man crowned leading apprentice in 2015, we can hope.

There is a cracking little preamble to the flat at Dundalk this Friday. The Weatherby’s Printing Race over 6f attracted a small but select field of entries. Russian Soul somehow crept past conditions which seemed to exclude him from the race and could be a big player fit from Meydan. The Halford runners 3^rd to Sir Maximillian here in October would nearly be good enough. Balmont Mast had a lovely return behind Captain Joy here last time over a furlong too far. Settled in rear off a slow gallop it was an eye-catching return from Eddie Lynams charge but it’s a small worry we haven’t seen him since. I Will Excel is a talented 3yo but looks quirky in a finish. Seanie and An Saighduir will be using this as a prep race for bigger targets in Spring on turf and Farmleigh House doesn’t look the horse he once was. That leaves me with the selection Grey Danube. The Bunyan trained 6yo gelding is in the form of his life and while the grey has a few pounds to find on official ratings, I think he can bridge the gap with current form and fitness. Not quite staying the mile behind Paene Magnus in the fast track qualifier for Lingfield and before then running out an impressive winner over subsequent victor Have a Nice Day. If there are any holes in the highly rated pair of Russian Soul and Balmont Mast, Grey Danube should be fit to take full advantage over ideal course and distance. 

Period Piece has three seconds to her name for Jessica Harrington but I wouldn’t let that put you off. A combination of greenness and running into a couple of good ones has stopped her so far. Blue Fragrance looked a small 2yo type and I’m not convinced one to progress. Unchanged has looked awkward in the finish while promising for Fozzy Stack. €20,000 can claim Period Piece in this race and I think Harrington may fear that more than the opposition if lining up.

Adroit had two excellent runs to start her career but then ran poorly twice on soft ground. She’s moved to F Dunne and should appreciate the fast surface here, the type that could be overpriced in this field.

County Wexford ran a curious race last week. Going a good clip early, travelling like much the best horse in the straight but then the young jockey seemed to let Reckless Lad pass him before getting serious with the Bolger gelding. Once driven he responded well and won a neck before being hard to pull up. The handicapper hasn’t missed him giving 6lb penalty but I think the important point here is the son of Teofilio remains in the bottom grade 47-65. I think it may be his last run in such a race, his beating of 72 and 71 rated rivals last week make me think he’s capable of backing up. Share a Secret is respected here each way as was drawn 13 last time out and didn’t get the clearest of runs, was dropped a pound for her efforts but remains in good heart.

Sakhees Jack was restrained here over 5f in October and ran on to make many a notebook when qualifying for a handicap mark. 67 could look lenient for the Deegan horse stepping back up in trip; he was only a length behind subsequent 78 rated handicap winner Daisy Bell. Early season 3yo handicaps are always tough though and Nialls Rory, Family Pride and Absorbing are also respected.   

Dundalk the After Party

Fifty minutes after the Grand Annual Dundalk gets underway on Friday evening. A two mile maiden; one of the worst you’ll see. That’s one way to throw cold water on festival punters who are trying to get over that it’s 361 days until Cheltenham and they will never see AP McCoy at the festival again.  

But what a week it will have been. Un de Sceaux wins the Arkle by a distance, Annie Power cruises to victory in the mares and Jezki triumphant again on Day 1. Don Poli goes fav for next year’s Gold Cup after an awesome display in the RSA. Sprinter Sacre hits 1.01 in the Champion Chase before finding nowt and Sire De Grugy imperious once more.  Toutancarmont wins the Cross Country to the delight of Kingbet Cheltenham Preview goers and a 4th string of Willie Mullins wins the bumper.  

Tony Martin followers can’t decide which horse is better handicapped in the Pertemps so back them all but emergency services are needed when Call the Cops strays them up the hill. Ryanair is the first time we’ve seen a dead heat for 6 horses at the festival and At Fishers Cross overcomes the dozen ailments that have stopped him jumping in the past to give AP McCoy a shock win in the World Hurdle. A combination of a holiday in Limerick, the curing of ulcers and plastic shoes are said to have worked the oracle.  

Peace and Co is made favourite for next year’s Champion Hurdle after not coming off the bridle in the Triumph, Hawk High repeats last years Fred Winter win in the County. Co. Meath is in clover after Road to Riches proves to be the new kid on the block in the Gold Cup and Noel Meade promises the wife a longer honeymoon live on Channel 4 afterwards. McCoy’s ride goes off 10/11 in the Grand Annual but is brought down at the first and the one he had the choice of riding wins.  

Dundalk will have its biggest audience of the year Friday. Do you think it matters that the quality isn’t great, not a bit of it. Tails are up and the blood is flying through the veins come 6pm Friday and turnover on the 9.05pm can be more than the Triumph in my experience. It looks a ferociously competitive card to boot. Viaduct Joey should eventually get off the mark in the first, a dreadful heat but will be short enough.  

Farmleigh House is an interesting entry in the 6f handicap. The 8yo has a 33% strike rate on the all-weather and the handicapper has given him a chance here by dropping him 8lb since his last run. The W Martin trained gelding won a handicap off 104 here in 2013 and now runs off 89. If at all refreshed after his break he could be the class act. Bubbly Bellini should reverse the form with Almadaa and Pencil Hill should run much better on its 2nd start of the season.  

I Will Excel is sure to be popular in the betting for the Elusive Pimpernel Race. Rated 90 the Michael Callaghan trained colt has some eye-catching form in the book but worries me he can be a weak finisher and hold his head high. Wychwood Warrior has run two good races in Meydan and looks a nice genuine horse that is hard fit from Dubai and ready to run well. He had a wide trip behind Mastermind when keen first time in UAE and then ran into a couple of 100 rated rivals in the Meydan Classic on the 26th of Feb. If making the trip back he is my choice from the Halford yard. Muaraabit was eye-catching the last day and is worth noting in the market for in form David Marnane stable.  

Gold Cup Day is a right day to have a gamble. I suspect this may be the plan with Burren View Lady. The 5yo Denis Hogan trained mare is down to a rating of 57 from 75 when he started to train her back in September. A flyer is taken here as the literal formbook wouldn’t agree with me but if you see market support for this one I’d join in. She’s won 5 races from 32 starts including off a mark of 79. Freshened up since her last run, she showed enough behind Indian Landing here under a negative ride to suggest ability is still there.   

The apprentice handicap contains a load of old favourites but Reckless Lad ran a blinder here for a comeback a fortnight ago. Pivot Bridge I feel has more room for improvement on a sound surface on the flat to mirror the progress over jumps and may be wise to catch fresh in the 12f race. A chance is taken with Little Arrows in the last that caught the eye last time staying on over a mile and is down to a dangerous mark.   

Warning events at Cheltenham preceding Dundalk may or may not have happened. Have a great week.  

Parish Pride and Joy

The All-Weather Championships Finals Day will take place at Lingfield on Good Friday, the 3^rd of April. Qualifiers will race for the £1.1m prize money over 7 disciplines. Dundalk host two fast track qualifiers this Friday for the Mile and the Middle Distance finals. Win and you’re guaranteed a spot at the table Good Friday, lose and it gets a little more trying as you have to run in 2 more qualifying races to make the cut. One horse who will have no such problem is Captain Joy; he has already booked his ticket.

The 6yo of Tracey Collins is on a four timer. He is a synthetic specialist and due to his win at Lingfield in a Conditions race back in January he is already headed for the Final, crucially having gotten experience at the track. The Dark Angel gelding is 7 wins from 13 runs on all weather, 2 of those disappointing on the Tapeta in Meydan which makes his record all the better. There are higher rated rivals in the mile contest Friday but few are as straight forward and in such form as the Herb Stanley owned grey. 116 rated Gordon Lord Byron is entered but looks likely to go to the Far East instead which is a shame. 2000 Guineas second Glory Awaits is also entered from the Yorkshire stable of Kevin Ryan. Last seen when winning a Group 2 in Turkey, he won a 7f listed race in Chester back in July and is 108 rated. He looks a tricky customer but retains plenty of ability. The worry would be lack of a recent run and his one try on all weather in Meydan was a disaster.

The mile race received 16 entries and if the majority were to turn up it would be a cracking heat. Ex-Richard Hannon trained Producer is now with Dermot Weld. He is rated 110 and is a group 2 and 3 winner but much of his best work looks at 7f. Weld also has a new recruit in Vedelago, he won a Group 1 in Italy and is rated 104. His old jockey Esposito has been quoted as saying ‘needs a first race to get him competitive again’. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=65Ty5aX9Sc4&feature=youtu.be

The Halford pair of Slipper Orchid and Castle Guest are in the line-up but have been running at Meydan recently so I’m not confident of their participation, though Slipper Orchid has been thriving and would run well. Paene Magnus for Jim Bolger has a lofty rating of 106 but was in poor form when last racing here in October. Seanie, Bold Thady Quill, Tennessee Wildcat, Rummaging and Bishan Bedi are all high class handicappers in the 16. Two who may excel themselves are the in-form Grey Danube if staying a mile and Togoville who will appreciate step back up to a 8f here, though they have a bit to find on ratings.  In summary a cracking race to savour; many with questions using this as a prep, it pays to keep it simple with Captain Joy.

The Middle Distance fast track qualifier in contrast has a poor set of entries. Racing for the same €20,000 purse the 10f race has only attracted 7 runners. Parish Hall for Jim Bolger will take the world of beating if fit and well enough after 82 day layoff. The 112 rated son of Teofilio is 1/1 at Dundalk winning the G3 Diamond Stakes here in 2013, with Captain Joy back in 4^th. With a sound surface underneath this fella is a class act and only Dermot Weld stands in his way. A French and Italian import could represent Weld here. Behesht is a Sea the Stars colt who started favourite on 6 of his 7 starts for A De Royer-Dupre, including when winning a listed race over 12f on soft at Saint Cloud in September. His old trainer quoted after saying ground was ‘softer than he wants’ and is a nice horse for ‘staying races at 4yo’.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-yfLbB3_Mw&feature=youtu.be

He is interesting but may want further and his new stablemate Vedelago is also entered in the mile. In form handicappers like Moonmeister and Whippers Boy will be praying Parish Boy doesn’t declare as with racing off level weights, it would be a forlorn hope. 

Elsewhere on the card I fancy David Marnane to have a double. Deemah looks well weighted and drop to 7f ideal in the 3yo handicap. Oliveraie showed loads of promise here on debut behind Charlie Bear and with improvement can win the mile maiden. Hilary can benefit from a drop into the bottom grade, a big field and a pace to run at in the mile handicap. Maontri didn’t stay 10f last time but showed some old sparkle and can be very competitive off 82. Cheltenham? What’s that! 

Clutching at Straws

Dundalk starts with a familiar sprint handicap and two regular course and distance specialists Majestic Timeline and Strategic Heights set the standard. They should blaze a trail but Oor Jock is the one that interests me. Give an easy time back off a break here last week behind Grey Danube, the 7yo is back to a mark only 1lb higher than when winning impressively at Leopardstown in August. Adrian McGuinness gelding missed the kick here last week, was never really put into the race and that can be forgiven, good sharpener fitness wise. Though more a 6f horse I rate his summer form better than some of the exposed winter form. Beat only 2.5l off 80 in September over 5f at the Curragh, 75 looks a winnable mark. 

The 3yo auction maiden is a race for horses whose sires’ progeny made a median of no greater than 30k at the sales. Special Forces who was a 60k yearling purchase bucks the trend and the market is worth watching closely for the O’Callaghan trained debutante. Hat Alnasar ran well in 2nd here behind Song of Love and has a chance while Maronella ran an encouraging debut at Navan for Johnny Murtagh. Period Piece is overdue a win however and brings the best form to the table. Though 2nd on all three starts there looks nothing quirky about the Harrington filly, just a slow learner and last day ran into a good one. Her 6l beating of 78 rated Maira into 3rd last time and 3l ahead of 76 rated handicap winner Sheeba time before looks good enough here.  

Have a Nice Day was an agonising 2nd last Friday for the column. Grey Danube beat him a half a length and they pulled 5 lengths clear of the rest. I was far from delighted with the trip the Sabrina Harty gelding had 3 and 4 wide the whole way, most evident at the false rail on turn for home where the winner nicked a few lengths by taking the shorter route. Up five pound for not winning is not ideal, but I’m happy he was the moral winner and pulled clear of a fair field. Have a Nice Day is in the form of its life, over preferred trip and is the class act in this field. Sometimes it pays to do the obvious.  

Clutchingatstraws was a facile winner of a mile maiden here before Christmas. Marise (3rd) gave that form a solid look by winning her maiden here last week. The O’Callaghan trained filly was an eye-catcher in the Birdcatcher handicap in Naas over a trip too short off 79. The filly normally finds plenty for pressure in her races but noticeably travelled with fierce ease last time during the race, suggesting she had loads in hand and the mile trip was much more to her liking. I suspect 80 still underrates her at a mile and above.    

Augustine Leahy could make the long trip up with Trade Marked if getting into the 10f 47-65 handicap which has received 33 entries. I’ve been looking forward to this 4yo stepping back up to 10f after a few conspicuous runs over a mile. A mark of 60 seems entirely feasible after 3 good runs in 3rd over a mile in Listowel and twice here. He was a good 2nd in Fairyhouse over 10f to a higher rated rival who just got away from him early. A chance is taken on fitness after a 91 day break but a win can’t be far away.  

Gordon Elliot looks to hold sway in the 10f maiden and 12f handicap to conclude the card with Cape Glory, The Game Changer and Knight’s Parade all entered. Horses more familiar to National Hunt fans. Elliot has a fine team assembled to head for Cheltenham in a fortnight, Don Cossack being the star in the Ryanair. As festival fever builds why not join Kingbet for our Cheltenham Preview Evening. 

It is being held in Gleesons on Wednesday the 4th of March at 8pm in Drogheda. MC will be Will Reilly. Panellists include jockeys Ger Fox (Noel Meade) and Andrew Lynch; both in the winners of late. Tony Keenan a form expert who writes a column for Betfair and Racing Ahead and myself to give out the enhanced prices and free bets! On the night Gleesons will give away a trip for two the Punchestown festival. See you there.   

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rPe0BtYvTA