Dive in for Mo

An extraordinary sporting 12 months for Great Britain in 2012 and to mark this astonishing year, 12 nominees will be chosen as special dispensation by an expert panel including Denise Lewis, Tanya Grey Thompson and Steve Redgrave to contest BBC Sports Personality of the Year. The event will return to its usual Sunday night slot on December 16^th.  The beeb were left red faced last year with no women on the shortlist but one can assume a diverse list this year including women and paralympians. This will be nothing short of what the likes of Jessica Ennis, Ellie Simmonds and David Weir deserve. The head of the betting though is still male dominated with Wiggins, Farah and Murray with their supporters.   

I’m not going to bore you with whose sporting achievements outweigh each other’s in such a golden year. A mention however for someone who will be lost in the galaxy of stars that will hit the Excel to be honoured. I am in awe of what the Brownlee brothers achieved this year and they will hardly get a look in on the night, Alistair will possibly be one of the 12. Alistair came back from a torn hamstring in January to win gold in the Triathlon at the Olympics, his brother Johnny bronze despite a time penalty and finishing physically exhausted and violently ill for a special medal double for family and country. Johnny won the Triathlon World Championships recently to cap a wonderful year. To put into context of Alistair’s greatness for those not familiar with triathlon, he completed 1500m swim, 43km on the bike and a 10km run in 1hour and 46mins. His 10km run at the end of this gruelling test was only 97 seconds slower than Mo Farah’s gold winning run for the same distance on the track. In another year his accomplishments would have to be recognised.

I digress. Who’ll win, what’s the value they scream. Who deserves it and emotion have no place here. I like to treat the BBC SPOTY like I’d treat a political election in terms of betting and possible outcomes. Sport popularity, people’s perception, vote sharing, demographic that vote and what BBC show on the night all has a part to play. In that sense the final 12 will have a knock on effect on the votes the main protagonists may receive. For example Wiggins cause may be diluted the more cyclists on the shorlist; Hoy, Storey, Pendelton, Kenny and Trott all possibles. Poulter and McIlroy may split a golf vote, while one or other would be more dangerous. Andy Murray will fly solo for Tennis and have a patriotic Scottish vote unless Hoy is involved. Mo Farah, Jessica Ennis and Greg Rutherford you may say would split an athletics vote. Weir, Simmonds and Storey are all paralympians with fantastic achievements but may split votes from those inspired watching the channel 4 action earlier this year. Weir for me was particularly sensational, winning 4 golds from 4 events, 800m up to marathon in the ultra-competitive wheelchair racing events.

Cavendish won last year with 49.47% of the vote, 169,152 votes. It was on a Thursday. Mo Farah 3^rd with 29,780, Murray 18,754 and McIlroy only 11,915 despite coming back from a horror final round at Augusta to win a major so early in his career. AP McCoy won in 2010 with 41.98% and 293,152 votes. Jessica Ennis notably got 9% of the vote, Tom Daley 7.27%. In 2009 Ryan Giggs won with 29.4%, 151,842, Jess Ennis 3^rd with 15.58% and 80,469, Daley 36,929 votes. The last Olympic year seen cyclist Chris Hoy win with 283,630 votes, Ben Ainslie got 35k and Murray 19k. Tom Daley won Young Sports Personality of the Year in 2007 as a 13 year old. Kelly Holmes won the award in 2004 and Steve Redgrave in 2000 making you think than an Olympian is clear favourite to win the prize in a year where it is hosted in London.   

I’d expect a record viewership this year and in turn a record number of votes. No campaign will win out but popularity will. The general public’s perception of the person, their evaluation of the relative achievements and I believe this year more than most; the most marketable person. The sports star that appeals to the masses. With that in mind here is my look at the runners and riders…

·         Wiggins (5/6 Fb 88k, Tw Inactive-was 6 figures)  [ fb = facebook likes tw=twitter followers]

Nothing left to be said. He absolutely smashed it! Tour de France, Olympics, the lot. Friends with rock n roll stars, voted most stylish man of the year, famous sideburns, liking for gin and tonics and swears with coolness. His negatives include his sport is being dragged through the mud again with Lance Armstrong etc. There is a seed of doubt I would guess in many people’s minds and that may be enough not to pick up a phone. 3 cyclists in 4 years may be a stretch. A split vote could be an issue depending on the amount of cyclists in the 12. Recently the tabloids have started to scrutinise Bradley more, they have found out he doesn’t pay tax in England, this type of scrutiny will continue. He’s too short in my opinion in an unbelievable year of sport.

·         Farah 9/2 (fb 232k, tw 619k)

5,000m & 10,000m Double. Thoroughly likeable character. His two wins on successive Saturdays were pure gold in terms of prime time TV and I’m sure he struck a chord in homes across Britain. He was aided by dramatic races and wonderful commentaries from Cramm and Foster that captured the moment. He is famed for his Mobot celebration invented on A League of Their Own, he won The Cube (primetime show watched by millions) where his personality came across well and is now recognised from various interviews as a hard working family man. He is a Londoner and Arsenal supporter. He will be helped by BBC having all the footage they ever needed to create the most compelling highlights reel. He looks value at 9/2.

·         Murray 5/1 (fb 859,292, tw 1.28m)

There were tears at Wimbledon, a gallant runner up. He admirably won the Olympics gold though at the same venue and a silver in the mixed doubles on the same day. Murray wouldn’t have got the credit though for his 3 set gold winning performance had he not backed it up with a memorable effort to win his first major, the US Open against Djokovic. He is mainstream and liked (I think, not me, I just respect his ability). He may have Scotland backing him. But I worry whether his greatest achievement being carried out on Sky Sports in the early hours will count against him. We’ll see. Price about right.

·         Jessica Ennis 9/1 (fb 1,035,209, tw 882k)

Olympic Decathlon champion. Imperious. She will blow no women on last year’s shortlist out of the water. Stunning, likeable and an icon for young women, Jess Ennis was the BBC’s poster girl before the start of the games. She didn’t disappoint. If she had of came home 3^rd in the final event  to win overall that would be understandable but Ennis did it in style, creating another golden moment by winning the 800m. The BBC will be favourable towards Ennis on the night in my opinion and she is widely known in Britain now. Featuring in every women’s magazine in the land. Her popularity is seen from her social media followers. Big chance at 9/1.

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Playing for places;

·        David Weir 28/1 (fb x, tw 24k)

4 golds at Paralympics for wheelchair racing. Some golden moments. It’s a pity but not well known in the grand scheme of things and it’s coverage on channel 4 rather than BBC is only a negative. In saying that Clare Balding is a presenter on the night and Tanya Grey Thompson is on the expert panel so by no means will this show miss the significance of some of the paralympians achievements. Won’t win, on merit should have big chance. An inspiration.

·         Ellie Simmonds 80/1 (fb 37k, tw 35k)

Star of the Paralympic games. Fantastic swimmer. Came across well in her host of interviews afterwards. Should be one of the 12 but that’s all.

·         Rory McIlroy 125/1 (fb 273k, tw 1.36m)

Surprised by the lack of votes last year. Popularity in question for me. Won another major and part of a victorious European team in the Ryder Cup. Sporting brilliance should be of little doubt. Tough ask though in an Olympic year. Especially if Poulter also a candidate.

·         Chris Hoy 150/1 (fb 68k, tw 387k)

Most decorated British Olympian ever. With Wiggins in the line up surely not. Merits being in the 12 though.

·         Ben Ainslie 200/1 (fb 31k, tw 45k)

Supreme sailor. Won golds now past 4 olympics and triumphed over adversity this year. Deserves to be honoured in line up but not known or sport is not popular enough to count.

·         Ian Poulter 200/1 (fb x, tw 1.4m)

His performances in the Ryder Cup, especially on the Saturday evening will stick in the memory. He is Mr Ryder Cup. He started the comeback and helped finish the job with another point in the singles on Sunday. Certainly known enough, but this event was on Sky Sports and in an Olympic Year unlikely. Though more likely than many of the rags.

Others to make the shortlist may include Sarah Storey (Paralympian cyclist), Victoria Pendelton (Cyclist & Strictly Come dancing contestant), Alistair Brownlee (Triathlete), Johnnie Peacock (Paralympian sprinter), Greg Rutherford (Long Jump Olympic Champion), Tom Daley (Diver, bronze medalist), Nicola Adams (First Olympic Woman Boxing gold), Jason Kenny (Cyclist) and Katherine Grainger (Rower-Gold medallist).

Popularity, achievement, prime time TV, Olympic year and for the most predominant memory of an incredible year of sport I believe Mo Farah will win SPOTY. At 9/2 he is the value left in such competitive event. I would not put off anyone backing Jess Ennis but I favour Mo.

For one from left field I think Tom Daley is overpriced for top three. He is a bronze medallist from the games in which so much pressure was on his shoulders. The joyous scenes of him celebrating the bronze were refreshing. It’s a fiercely competitive discipline where the Chinese are so dominant so a bronze can be given weight. He lost his Dad to a brain tumour in 2011 and this was the subject of an emotional documentary covered by the BBC prior to the games. Daley is only 18. He has learned to drive, passed his GCSE’s, coped with the pressure of him being the ‘poster boy’ of London 2012 and more importantly the loss of his Dad in a short space of time. Daley is no stranger to the awards winning the young SPOTY a record 3 times. He has nearly 2m followers on twitter. It’s hard to describe how popular he is with his fans, it’s the same support that gets boy bands endless number ones despite not having the most brilliant product. The hardest part of this bet is whether he makes it past the expert panel to make the final twelve. If Daley is a nominee, it’s a public vote and merit can go out the window. There’s a small chance his support becomes apparent and his price may snowball. Although a campaign should be drowned out in such a year, the sheer number of his fans may have an impact. Daley is currently 199/1 to place on betfair, so there is lots of upside and little downside to such a bet.  

Post by Peter Kingston
Please feel free to comment and tell me who you think will win SPOTY, who is the value and why I'm miles off the mark!