Friday, 15 March 2013

Gold Cup Day Preview

I must not be be a stayer. Little time means the briefest of previews and selections on Day 4. I will however be backing a few stayers today in what should be rain softened ground come race time.

The triumph hurdle has a clear form pick in Our Conor for Dessie Hughes. He was a fair bet at 5's last week but now is about right. Far West looks a nice each way bet as the market stands at 5/1,11/2. He'll stay, the Nicholls form is overplayed and he'll stay well at the finish in what should be a furiously run race.

The County hurdle is a great race. With Kingbet paying 5 places it allows you back a few to take advantage of the place value. I think Cotton Mill will run a big race and is the class act in the race with some pounds in hand. Boringly i'll make him the main choice. ManyRiversToCross looks value at 33's too. A hardened handicapper now he looks back off a workable mark, I fancy him to be staying on late for a place. Ted Veale is respected from the Tony Martin stable. Though a lot of rain would not suit him.

The Albert Bartlett has cut up now with 3 non runners today, most notably Ballycasey. At Fishers Cross I think will win but is probably short enough now. You would have to be wary of the confidence behind the Twiston Davies African Gold, The New One's stablemate. He is a nice type like the favourite, he finds plenty off the bridle,a genuine and progressive sort. One other to mention is the all conquering Mullins Inish Island. He has form with At Fishers Cross. I think they will finish in the order of the betting. Yawn I know.

Gold Cup
Bobs Worth:Rock solid form, course form. Correct favourite. Only worry is lack of recent run
Cape Tribulation: Will be staying on at the finish for the minors. Lack of obvious pace a worry.
Captain Chris: Held on form with the principles. Worry about him left handed.
Long Run: Needs to be ridden fairly positively to make it a test. Stable confidence is big plus. Horses find it hard to win back to back, many have won championship races the year after.
Monbeg Dude: Surely not.
Silviniaco Conti:  Unblemished record this year. Couldn't fault him. Dangerous if slowly run.
Sir Des Champs: Trained for this race only. Course winner. But rain a negative for me and doesn't jump well enough.Short enough in betting as a result.
The Giant Bolster: Slightly overpriced. One of the solid yardsticks in the race. Will be thereabouts but lacks class to win.
Wayward Prince: Been awful this year. Talented but can't see it.
1 Bobs Worth 2 Silvianaco Conti 3 Long Run
I'll be laying Sir Des Champs a place.

In the Foxhunter's a bit like Our Conor, Salsify was the value at 4/1+. Now I'm unsure if the rain comes. Happy to be a layer in this race.

In the Martin Pipe Conditional his son has favourite Gevrey Chambertin. Really been visually impressed with him so far, but he's no real value on what he's done form wise. Imperial Cup winner First Avenue looks too big each way simply for his recent form, ability to handle the rough and tumble of such a race and negative opinion he's held attitude wise. Village Vic looks well handicapped but ran average in the Betfair Hurdle.  Salubrious has form with some Albert Bartlett runners so his mark may become clearer post 2.40.

Alderwood is the obvious plot in the Grand Annual. He's another to have halved in price in the past week. Petit Robin and Tanks for That are the two that make most appeal at the prices. Especially Petit Robin who has been a revelation this year over hurdles, he's as good a chaser and with the form he's in, a good claimer taking 7lb off his back he looks fairly treated to make him a bet each way.

Longer than anticipated, maybe I do stay. Good luck!
Like everyone wishing JT McNamara pulls through and makes a full recovery.


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