Thursday, 30 June 2011

Quadrangle - a shape with only four sides

This week’s article is a look at the rugby world cup, which begins in September. It is said that the best predictor of future actions is past behaviour. Therefore the focus will be on past world cups and their eventual winners since 1995. 1995 is the first world cup I watched and also the first competition to contain South Africa. They had previously been excluded due to their apartheid politics.
Including 1995 three teams have won the competition: South Africa, Australia and England. South Africa winning in both 1995 and 2007 are, along with Australia, the only team to win two world cups. New Zealand won the inaugural trophy in 1987.

There you have it six competitions four different winners. It is difficult to imagine another winner of the trophy however. Everyone knows that France are closest to being included in this elite group of winners. Two weeks ago I included examples of the sublime rugby France have played in the World Cup. Their inconsistency though has prevented them from winning the competition.
In the last world cup France meekly fell to England in the semis. It was difficult to watch them perform so conservatively after their exciting victory against New Zealand in the previous round. In 1999 France lost in the final after an equally exciting semi final victory over New Zealand. Therefore while France may excite at this world cup, they are not realistic victors.
So while there have been four different winners of the event there are only five teams who have affected the outcome of a world cup. Basing my analysis on the premise that past behaviour affects future performance, the only way a team can influence the outcome of a competition is by knocking out a previous i.e. potential winner of the tournament. France are the only non-winner to prevent a previous winner getting through to the next round of the world cup.
The storyline of the up-coming world cup will remain within the parameters set down in past tournaments. The winner will come from the southern hemisphere three or England. France will delight, excite, maybe take a scalp, but eventually let their fragility deny them of the ultimate conquest.
Can anyone break up this quadrangle?
The pacific island teams of Samoa, Fiji and Tonga have failed to lock down a solid scrum in past tournaments. This will prevent them advancing. However they can provide viewer excitement with their free-flowing all-running style of play and perhaps Fiji can beat Wales, as happened in the last competition. The author knows nothing about the dynamics of a scrum, however in past tournaments Pacific Island scrums are often on the retreat against established opposition.
Ireland have the chance of breaking the big five, at least, according to some analysts of the game. However this will require them to beat Australia in the group.
Second place in the group means a quarter final against South Africa. Ireland should try to emulate France in this competition. Attack from everywhere against Australia and try to secure a significant edge in the scrum. Australia were knocked out by England in the last tournament, due to penalties given away by their inferior scrum.
Ireland may accept the natural order and second place in the group, by putting all the focus into beating Italy.
Being that past performance is the best indicator of future outcome Ireland are not going to beat South Africa, given that they have never troubled the big four or France in prior tournaments.
It is the overall opinion of this author that the world cup will not break the stranglehold of the big four, nor will France be usurped as the great entertainers.
So the storyline remains the same as before. Therefore the only cliff-hanger will be the winner. New Zealand want it more than ever. Forever this soap opera’s jilted lover. Home tournament. Sick and tired of being labelled bottlers. The earthquakes that struck the country have most likely stirred the coals of patriotism a la 9-11 in the U.S. Heroism was most likely found all around the disaster zone and this will have ignited passionate feelings, which will be manifested in their support of the All Blacks.
The rugby world cup, while great for supporters of the game, is not going to draw in those uninterested in the game. Its soap opera moments all revolve around Nelson Mandela in 1995 and the ending of apartheid. Every soccer world cup excites and unites not only the participating nations, but also the globe, in their love of the beautiful game. Rugby can never dream of such a fan base.
The unpredictability of sport is what I love. Sadly much of the rugby world cup is predetermined. However another failure of the favourites and hosts in the land of the long white cloud would benefit the game exponentially and keep this exciting storyline alive.
Signing off,
M.C.

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