European Grand Prix Predictions

The European Grand Prix is on this afternoon and for a man living in the UK with no access to RTE it is probably the sporting highlight of the day.

Vettel is accurately priced at 4/6.  Last year he led from pole to the chequered flag and it would be a big statement to say that he isn’t able to do the same again today.  Button made the podium last year after qualifying 7^th, this year he qualified 6^th. His fluent driving and smooth braking appear to be giving him an advantage in the closing stages of races this year as he seems to be able to preserve the Pirelli tyres better than the majority of his competitors.  He will be one to watch. 

Massa, the winner here in 2008, is starting from 5^th will not be seen in many tipping columns today.  He is definitely the number two driver at Ferrari and he could easily be asked to move over for Alonso if Ferrari are running 1^st and 2^nd.  However he is currently over 100/1 on betfair which is a ridiculous price. If you ran this race 100 times, Massa would win at least once and hence is value.  It is not going to happen but it is definitely worth a cheeky bet.

The weather will be perfect today in Valencia so we will not see the topsy turvy race that we witnessed two weeks in rain drenched Montreal.  However there are some interesting prices in the top 6 betting market.  Schumacher 15/8, Heidfeld 3/1 and Petrov 4/1.  Those three start on the grid from 8^th, 9^th and 11^th respectively.  Heidfeld probably represents the best value at 3/1.  He qualified for the final qualifying session but did not complete a lap in order to save his tyres as Renault felt that this represents their best strategy for Sunday.  All three are worth a bet in my very unqualified opinion.

As you can see from the stats below no more than 3 cars have crashed /retired in Valencia.  This is a very small number. The safety car was deployed only once in those three years in 2010.  Trend betters would be looking for at least 2/1 on this small (and insignificant) sample set but trends are meant to be broken and evens is the best price available for the safety car to be seen this afternoon and is a decent price.  The safety car is used to ensure that a race does not suffer from undue disruption from a major accident, or other incident serious enough to require the presence of marshals on the track.  Valencia is a street circuit with few run off areas hence if there is a crash there is an increased chance that a safety car will be needed to get the race going again. Two weeks ago I mentioned that it is easier to overtake this year than in previous years and I believe that this will lead to more incidents and crashes and this is the main reason why the evens price represents value.

European GrandPrix – Number of finishers and overtakes

2008 – 17 finishers from 20 (4 overtakes)

2009 – 17 finishers from 20 (1 overtakes)

2010 -  21 finishers from 24 (12 overtakes)

The following prices represent value and is where my hard owned £’s will be going

·         A straight forecast of Vettel to win and Button to come second @ 16/1 – 5 pts

·          Button to have the fastest lap, as he did last year, is best priced @ 12/1 – 5 pts

·         Finally Button to make the podium is available @ 12/5 – 10 pts

·         Schumacher to finish in top six @ 15/8 – 5 pts

·         Heidfeld to finish in top six @ 3/1 - 10 pts

·         Petrov to finish in top six @  4/1 – 5 pts

·         Safety car @ 1/1 – 25pts

·         Massa to win @130/1 – 1pt

Post by Gary Sinnott
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