Friday, 17 June 2011

Nadal The Man To Beat Once Again

The 2011 Wimbledon Championships start on Monday as Rafael Nadal looks to capture his third major title on the grass and prove that he is still the man to beat. Nadal, the world's number one player, heads into the tournament on the back of his sixth French Open title, where he beat Roger Federer in four sets. Federer himself is looking to make history as he attempts to equal Pete Sampras' record of 7 Wimbledon titles.

Nadal is the reigning champion and top seed and has every reason to feel optimistic about adding another major victory to his Grand Slam haul. His victory over Federer at Rolland Garros two weeks ago cemented his place as the greatest clay courter of all time and enabled him to hold on to his number one ranking. The slower courts at SW19 undoubtedly suit him and make him less susceptible to an early exit at the hands of a big server. Although losing to Jo-Wilfred Tsonga at the quarter-final stage of Queen's last week, I think he would have been reasonably pleased with his efforts. He had a grueling clay court season and had made the final in every tournament he entered since the Australian Open. Losing in the quarter-finals at Queen's allowed him to get a couple of matches on grass under his belt and allowed him to get the sufficient rest he deemed necessary to defend his Wimbledon crown. A first round clash with Michael Russell should pose few problems but possible encounters with Milos Raonic, Juan Martin Del Potro and the man he beat in last year's final, Tomas Berdych, could possibly await meaning Rafa's route to the semi-finals will be anything but easy.

So what of Nadal's rivals? Novak Djokovic is seeded number two and is the only other man apart from Nadal to hold a Grand Slam title, the Australian Open. He went on an amazing 41 match unbeaten start to the year until he lost to Federer at the French Open semi-final. During that run, he beat each of Nadal, Federer and Murray on more than one occasion, even beating Nadal in the four consecutive finals they contested in Indian Wells, Miami, Madrid and Rome. He's without doubt playing the best tennis of his career and is definitely in with a shout. He seemed almost super human during his unbeaten run and I wonder how much that defeat to Federer will take out of him. He didn't play any warm up tournaments on the grass in the lead up to this event, exhibition matches aside. I think that might count against him and the fact that he's never won a grass court title and grass seems to be his least favourite surface, I think a semi final berth is the best Djokovic will conjure up. Frenchman Jeremy Chardy is his first round opponent and a possible quarter-final with Robin Soderling could tell us a lot about his grass court game.

Federer is another who comes to Wimbledon on the back of no warm up tournament on the grass. He pulled out of Halle after his final defeat in Paris to Nadal but I don't think this will have too much of an impact. He's a six time Wimbledon champion and he will handle the crossover from the red dirt to the grass with minimal fuss. After being generally written off in the lead up to the French Open, his semi-final victory over Djokovic and his brave effort in the final defeat to Nadal has shown that there's still life in the old dog yet. He faces Mikhail Kukushkin in the first round before a potential third round banana skin in the shape of David Nalbandian. If he gets through that, he should ease through to the semi-finals where Djokovic would be his most likely opponent.


Andy Murray is the main British hope and the crowd will be backing him to become the first Briton since Fred Perry in 1936 to win the men's singles title at the All England Club. Murray comes into the tournament on the back of victory at Queen's, where he defeated Tsonga in the final in three sets. He's got the game to win Wimbledon and I can see him going far in the competition. He starts off by facing Daniel Gimeno-Traver in the first round but possible match ups with Frenchmen Richard Gasquet and Gael Monfils should prove his only real problem of reaching the last four and setting up a probable semi-final tussle with Nadal. The only worry I have regarding Murray is that he has contested three Grand Slam finals and has been comprehensively beaten in all of them, failing to win a set in any. If he makes it that far again, his mental game will have to drastically improve if he wants to break his Grand Slam duck.

It's hard to look beyond the top four seeds as their games seem so far ahead of the rest. Juan Martin Del Potro is making steady progress on his return from injury but grass doesn't seem to be his ideal surface as his movement can sometimes let him down. Andy Roddick has obvious claims but the way in which Murray schooled him at Queen's means that a similar outcome is to be expected if they were to meet at the quarter final stage. Soderling and Berdych can cause problems for anyone when on song but whether they show up or not is an altogether different story. If Nadal is to be stopped it could be early on so watch out for a potential tough match up for him in the shape of number 31 seed, Milos Raonic, in round three. 

Of all the first round matches, the one that immediately jumps off the page is Isner-Mahut. These two played out the longest match in tennis history at the same stage last year with Isner prevailing 70-68 in the deciding set in a match that stretched over three days. Dolgopolov-Gonzalez & Ljubicic-Cilic are the other stand out ties from the first round. So now is the time for recommendations. I personally cannot see past the big 4 making the semi-finals. Their game's are too far ahead of the rest and they're all coming into the tournament in good form. I see the same outcome as the French Open with Nadal too good for Murray in their semi-final with Federer edging past Djokovic in the other. Nadal then to beat Federer in 4 or 5 in the final.

In Rafa we trust!

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