Ante-post and Uncle big price winners

While the likes of tennis and golf are in full swing at this time of year, for the football and rugby fan in this hemisphere, now is the time for rest and reflection. For the thirstiest of fans, the Euro under 21 championship and the Churchill Cup are taking place now and they may provide mild refreshment as well as some clues for the future. Most of us are now fixated with our own team’s incomings and outgoings or avidly looking forward to the Rugby World Cup (RWC) in September and now is perhaps the best time to get our ante-post bets in place before it and the new football season kicks off.

New Zealand hosts the RWC and are generally available at 8/11 to take the title. They have been favourites at every world cup since it’s inception in 1987 but have only ever won it once, in that same year. There is no doubt that they are the best team in world rugby at present, having won last years tri nations and doing the clean sweep in their northern hemisphere tour and they do have massive strength in depth but there are enough reasons to avoid them at that price. They are always carrying a huge burden of expectation on their backs at every world cup but this is the first world cup that they will host by themselves, having jointly hosted the inaugural tournament with Australia and this added weight could end up crushing them. They should come out of their group in a relatively straightforward manner but their opening match against Tonga is sure to be physical and France will be no pushovers for them either. Topping the group will most likely set up a quarter-final clash with a powerful Argentina side and should they come through that, the holders South Africa will most likely await in the semis. A much better betting prospect is France each way at 16/1. If France finish runners up to the Kiwis, as is most likely, then England will probably be their quarter final opponents, followed by Australia in the semis. Granted, they lost to both of these teams this year but France have no reason to fear either of these teams. They only lost by eight points in Twickenham to the eventual six nations champions and while they got hammered by the Aussies in Paris, it would be unwise to read too much in to what was a typical end of season campaign. France are a Jekyll and Hyde team but when they click into gear they are undoubtedly a match for anyone and 16/1 seems pretty generous for a country who have got at least to the semis at every world cup since 1995.

The draw for next years Heineken Cup was made last week and while the final is almost a year away, it may be worth having a small punt on Harlequins each way at 40/1. Irish fans, particularly Leinster, will remember ‘Quins from the infamous ‘Bloodgate’ quarter final in 2009 but Harlequins have successfully rebuilt and they won the Amlin Challenge cup last year with a blend of youth and experience that saw them see off Munster in Thomond Park. Experienced players like Nick Easter and Nick Evans have helped to establish a core around which young players such as Danny Care and George Lowe have developed and become/ are becoming full England internationals. They lost a number of Premiership games last year by 1-5 points and if they can turn some of those defeats into wins they may have a successful season upcoming. They are in pool 6 with Toulouse, Gloucester and new boys Connaught. It may be that two teams come out of this group if the big 3 all hammer Connaught. If this is the case and Harlequins can beat Gloucester and get a bonus point in France and perhaps beat Toulouse in the Stoop then they will have a great chance of reaching the quarters and 40/1 certainly won’t be available then.     

Man Utd are 15/8 favourites to retain their Premiership title with Chelsea 11/4 and Man. City 4/1. There doesn’t appear to be any standout value in the win market but there may be value in the relegation market. Both Norwich and Swansea are odds on to go down and while both play decent football, Swansea in particular, they are sure to struggle. QPR, the other promoted team, have heavy financial backing and if their manager Neil Warnock is allowed to invest heavily, they may be able to build up a squad that is capable of survival. If Wigan can hold onto Roberto Martinez all summer then they have a super chance of pushing up the table next year. He appears to be building a team around the likes of James McCarthy, Victor Moses and Charles N’Zogbia and with Hugo Rodallega leading the line, Wigan have the nucleus of a good starting 11. Blackburn and Newcastle have money to spend and West Brom have a very good manager in Roy Hodgson but they could all find themselves down near the drop zone. However, Wolves are 9/4 to go down and that appears the bet. They have got spirit and determination, much like their manager Mick McCarty but they could not stop leaking goals last season. They lost on the last day at home to Blackburn and had results gone differently elsewhere they would now be in the Championship. While Kevin Doyle and Steven Fletcher are capable of scoring, neither scores on a prolific enough basis to call them top strikers. Their real problem is at the back though where they shipped 66 goals last term and conceded a goal in every match bar five. Their best run of form last year came to an end against Blackburn on the last day having won their previous two games. Wolves ended up with 40 points last year and if they do the same next year then they will certainly be right down there.

The NFL resumes next September and defending champions Green Bay Packers share favouritism with the New England Patriots at 7/1. As usual, the betting is wide open but the Atlanta Falcons are the best bet for me at 16/1. They lost to the Packers in the playoffs last year but they have been improving steadily ever since they drafted their starting Quarterback Matt Ryan from Boston College. WR Roddy White, veteran TE Tony Gonzalez and explosive RB Michael Turner ably support him. They traded with the Cleveland Browns in order to have the No. 6 pick in this year’s draft and picked up WR Julio Jones from Alabama to add another threat wide out. They have a pretty good defence too, giving up only 18 points per game last season, 5th best in the league and while they have a tough schedule (paired with the Packers’ NFC North and the Colts’ AFC South), they should be there or thereabouts again next season. Once in the postseason, with a reasonable seeding, anything is possible.

If we put France, Harlequins and Falcons to win the aforementioned tournaments and Wolves to go down in an ante-post lucky 15 or yankee, then this time next year we will all be millionaires or at least €57,833 richer with a €1 Lucky 15.




Kevin Walsh is from Skerries and is an unsuccessful punter since transition year back in school, 2004.