United we stand, divided we fall

I've just regained my appetite for football, just in time I suppose. Come April or May it's only the Champions League Final, relegation 6 pointers or title deciders that I find watchable. 2nd week in August though everything is gripping, Swansea to Swindon, Chelsea to Crawley. Bookings indexes, goal averages, new signings, managers under pressure, handicaps and corners all get my full attention. You want to join dozens of fantasy football leagues, have tens of yankees on the outcome of the various divisions and want to secure a credit union loan for that price on the match bet that is simply wrong. Then reality strikes.
 
I understand punters haven't unlimited disposable income to invest thousands across multiple markets and can't take a weeks holidays simply to study every statistic available to man for the forthcoming season. I will therefore suggest a couple of bets which will neither break the bank nor take up too much of your time, yet may hold great interest right upto next May.

It is twenty years since a team won the premier league without having finished in the top three the season before. I've robbed this wisdom from the genius that is Kevin Pullien of the Racing Post. Therefore without too much extraordinary transfer happenings outside the top 3 (Man Utd, Chelsea & Man City), it looks a certainity that one of the '3' will win again. In fact in my opinion these three have strenghtened and the likes of Arsenal have weakened resulting in the gulf in class widening. The big three pays 1/5 dutched or combined, that in my view is more than fair.

Man Utd (7/4) have that winning mentality that Ferguson has obviously always instilled. I have been against them for years now, last year especially thinking their side was particularly mediocre, how wrong I was. This summer however I like the cleanout (O'Shea etc) they have performed, the youth and exuberance they have signed, and think if they sign Sneijder they will become unbeatable in England. Cue their downfall! 7/4 is fair. Ten out of eleven football traders for different major bookies in the RP Premiership pullout selected United for their 20th title, ominous.

Chelsea (11/4) haven't signed too many but I like Villa Boas and they might be a happy and formidable unit this season. Man City (4/1) have huge talent, however too much in my opinion, 'Too many chefs' and all that...

Liverpool (10/1) may put the wind up 1/5 backers though. They too look a settled side, two quality strikers, and a manager the players look up to. Carragher still set to start does not inspire me however. They should have bought a quality centre half to replace Carragher and complement some decent signings that have already been made.

The departure of Fabregas and Nasri from Arsenal (9/1) was inevitable, but the fact that this saga is finally coming to an end brings home the fact that the Gunners have no chance this season. I am a huge Wenger fan and I'm sure the Arsenal board are too considering how profitable and entertaining the club are he contributes to, but another trophyless prospect is too much to comprehend for fans. I can see Arsenal starting so poorly that Arsene might walk before Christmas, making him the first manager to leave at 25/1 attractive. Players like Nasri and Fabregas not wholeheartedly supporting his policy of youth promotion, patience and not buying success has surely dented Wengers pride and with the board not giving him much too spend, or alternatively his unwillingness to spend it, I feel Wenger might think he has brought Arsenal as far as he can.
 
The race for the Golden Boot is always a good betting heat at 9 or 10/1 the field. I think players from clubs like Man Utd, Man City, Chelsea are no value. There are no definites on the team sheet each week because of a feast of options, team rotation, European football ect. So Hernandez (17/2), Aguero (16/1), Torres(10/1) and co are not for me. Van Persie (10/1)would be enticing if he wasn't so injury prone. First men on the various team sheets this year with plenty of potential to score 20+ include Bent 12/1(Villa), Carroll 22/1 & Suarez 14/1 (Liverpool), Van der Vaart 40/1 (Spurs), Odemwingie 50/1(West Brom) and Cabaye (Newcastle).  With each way 1/4 1,2,3,4 places I believe small stakes on each will show a profit for the season. 

Liverpool to beat Arsenal at Even money is a fair bet for the season in my opinion. It maybe an unfashionable bet however due to it's length and short price.

It is worth noting the African Nations Cup is on next January and Febuary in Gabon and Guinea. This will most affect Chelsea, Arsenal and Blackburn.

I think Blackburn (3/1)are value for the drop this season. They are a poor side and with no real additions they are big price to be relegated. Their manager Kean is favourite for the first manager to go market at 9/4, that is about right. They have two fair centre halfs in Samba and Nelsen but injury or poor discipline is a worry to their only strength.

The team which take most of my attention pre season though is Aston Villa. At first glance; Mad to take on Alex McCleish, stupendous to let go Downing and Young and showing a lack of ambition. Further study reveals an able and hungry manager, great signings in N'Zogbia and Given, a settled side and one which will 'beat the rest' in my opinion. They mightn't beat Chelsea, United or City, they'll give Arsenal, Spurs and Liverpool a good go and I think they are better than Everton and the rest. They are 8/11 to be a Top 10 side, value. They get 28pts on the season handicap, value, and they are 9/2 without the 'big 6' (Man Utd,Chelsea, Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool & Spurs), each way 1/5 1,2,3 (or 7th, 8th, 9th most likely). It is very hard to see them not being placed in that market and it's easy to see them heading 'the rest'.   
I've briefly touched on some on my musings towards this season. Many will differ on opinion on what sides may do what. The casual punter should look at the Handicap market though for the season, it's an intriuging and fun market, and one which doesn't require a large outlay. The golden boot is an attractive market and Betting without the top six holds great interest throughout the season.

Happy campers, settled sides and teams united to the cause this season will perform the best in my shoddy opinion. I wish Ferguson would retire, I think it's the only way the opposition will wrestle the Premiership trophy from United's grasp.
Best of luck for the season. Enjoy.

Post by Peter Kingston

Anyone who comments below this post may avail of the following offers before kick off this Saturday in our shop;

12/1 Arsenal - Premiership
2/1 QPR - To be relegated
10/1 - Hernadez, Rooney and Torres - Golden Boot
4/1 Spurs - Top 4 Finish
9/2 The Field to beat Man Utd, Chelsea, Man City - Premiership