What Next?

Only fifteen football players have sold for more than thirty million pounds in a single go. Looking at the next two months, one thing is certain: that number is going to increase before the European season restarts. As every team seeks to unseat Barcelona at the pinnacle of European football, and the old certainties that pervaded the Premiership go out the window, it appears that an unprecedented transfer window is in the offing. With that in mind, let us look at what plans the biggest teams in Europe might have for purchases.
England hasn't held the record for a purchase since Ronaldo Luis Nazario de Lima unseated Alan Shearer in 1997, yet the Premiership is the richest league in the world, and getting richer. As a result, there is likely to be considerable activity here, particularly as the Big Four of Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal, who dominated the game for much of the first decade of the twenty-first century, now find themselves joined by Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur as a Big Six, all fighting over those four crucial Champions' League slots.

Unlike his colleagues, Alex Ferguson has the luxury of dong nothing, should he wish. His biggest headache, replacing Edwin Van Der Sar in goals, has been hopefully dealt with by the likely arrival of David De Gea from Atletico Madrid, though that transfer has yet to be finalised. While, aged just twenty, De Gea may lack experience at directing a defence, the pairing of Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic need little assistance in that department. United's other problem is that, following Paul Scholes' retirement, a replacement centre midfielder would be desirable, as neither Michael Carrick or Darren Fletcher are particularly good. In addition, Ryan Giggs has now been playing for so long that it will soon be time to consider what will happen when he dies, let alone retires. Expect United to start nosing after Luca Modric, Wesley Sneijder, or possibly Bastian Schweinsteiger, if he could be acquired cheaply. The latter could be traded for Dimitar Berbatov, who is now deemed surplus to requirements at United, and is the subject of rumoured interest from Bayern Munich. Ferguson, however, is nothing if not unpredictable. The defeat to Barcelona in Wembley will undoubtedly spur him to strengthen his squad, and the likelihood is that the Glazer family will provide the means to do so. Nonetheless, it may be that the wily Scot will look to a relative unknown to fulfil his midfield requirements.

Any odds better than 1/2 on Manchester City outspending everyone this summer are worth backing. The club's seemingly bottomless money reserves has made it virtually impossible for the club to get a bargain, and Roberto Mancini's transfer policy seems to be buying players at any price in the hope that they will gel with his team, and then buying others when they don't. The club's biggest problem will probably be retaining the services of Carlos Tevez, who has twice requested to leave. The Argentinian is supposedly unhappy with the strain playing in England has put on his family life. Rumoured bidders include Inter Milan and Real Madrid, though whether either party would be willing to pay Tevez's massive salary remains to be seen. Should Tevez leave, City will undoubtedly pay whatever it takes to replace him. Recent reports suggest an earth-shattering £150m bid for Cristiano Ronaldo might be in the offing.

During the January transfer window, it appears that Chelsea finally wised up to what had been obvious to everyone else: that the squad was over the hill. With stalwarts such as Didier Drogba, John Terry, Peter Cech, Frank Lampard and Nicolas Anelka now well into their thirties, Gus Hiddink is going to have to go on a crash buying spree. Like Manchester City, Chelsea went on a buying spree when the money started rolling, and acquired a lot of players at very high prices who were manifestly unsuitable for the club. Few will remember the Chelsea careers of Andrey Schevchenko, Claude Makelele, Hernan Crespo, Damien Duff or Juan Sebastian Veron with much fondness. Unlike City, Chelsea managed to move beyond that stage under Jose Mourinho, who assembled a fairly consistent team. Chelsea will also be hampered by their inability to get players cheaply, though unlike City, they have a consistent record of reaching the latter stages of the Champions' League, which should make them more attractive to potential signings. Expect them to offload Anelka if they can, and to try to strengthen their midfield.

This summer may be the one where Arsene Wenger finally starts signing established players for serious money. While his policy of fiscal prudence and youth development is admirable, it may now no longer be enough. Both Liverpool and Spurs are eyeing up a return to Champions' League football, and it is Arsenal whose spot they will be targeting. One of the club's major selling points has been guaranteed Champions' League football, and without it, players like Cesc Fabregas, a repeated target of Barcelona, may start rethinking their loyalties to the club. Already, Samir Nasri has itchy feet, and has expressed an interest in playing for Manchester United. Arsenal are not short of money, and Wenger will have to think about using a greater share of his club's revenues on transfers. Expect a signing or two for more than £15m, at the very least.

Harry Redknapp is in an odd position. On the one hand, his squad is now bloated to the point where it will fall foul of limits on first team numbers, and he wants to bring in a few new players. On the other hand, he will have to fend off a number of unwelcome advances from other clubs for the likes of Gareth Bale, Luca Modric and Roman Pavyluchenko.
Traditionally, a small team that punches above its weight in Europe is liable to have its best assets plundered, most spectacularly to Bayer Leverkeusen following their reaching the Champions' League final. However, Tottenham Hotspur are the twelfth biggest club in the world, and therefore far less susceptible to plundering than might be thought. Expect Jermaine Defoe and Robbie Keane to be shown the door, and possibly Gomes, whose patchy performances towards the end of the season are one reason why Spurs are playing in the Europa League next season, rather than the Champions' League. With the acquisition of Brad Friedel and rumours that PSV Eindhoven would like him back, Gomes will have a hard time staying at Spurs. That will leave them in the hunt for a new striker, but with Manchester City, Bayern Munich, Inter Milan and Real Madrid all in the same boat, they may find themselves priced out of the the market. One possibility might be a surprise return of Dimitar Berbatov as a stopgap for a few years.

Liverpool's rather schizophrenic season will send mixed messages. The failure to build a global support base in the past two decades has seen them slip from being England's biggest club by revenue to being its fourth-biggest, and the team needs work. With a few exceptions, almost any player on the team could be replaced by someone else. The massive transfer fee received for Fernando Torres failed to cover the outlay on Luis Suarez and Andy Carroll, so any further purchases will require additional investment by New England Sports Ventures. Certainly, Kenny Dalglish has always been at his best when given plenty of cash to play with. However, given the club's strong performance towards the end of the season, it may be that the owners reckon that the team is now strong enough to make it back into Europe next season without any significant further investment. The danger is that the other teams will strengthen their squads, shifting this algorithm.
Looking further afield, Inter Milan owner Massimo Moratti is going to have to pump significant resources into the club if he wants them to have a chance of further European success. The squad that won under Jose Mourinho in 2010 was suited for Mourinho's style, and has not adapted well to Rafa Benitez or Leonardo. In addition, the squad is fairly old. Like Arsenal, a failure to bring new talent into the team may cause the likes of Wesley Sneijder to leave. As mentioned before, possible targets include Dimitar Berbatov, or Carlos Tevez, who has suggested he would be happier in Italy than in northern England.

Exactly what could be done to improve Barcelona is known only to Pep Guardiola. At this point he presides over arguably the finest team in football history. In addition, the club came precariously close to financial meltdown last summer, only being bailed out by a massive sponsorship deal from Qatar. As a result, a period of fiscal retrenchment may be in order. However, with Barcelona set to overtake Real Madrid as the biggest club in the world by revenue, money is plentiful. In the past two summers, Barca have shown themselves willing to splash out if needs be, first on Zlatan Ibrahimovic, and then on David Villa. While there are no glaring problems with the team, Guardiola may choose to replace Victor Valdes, who is (somewhat unfairly) regarded as a weak link in the squad.

The biggest question mark of all hangs over the plans of Real Madrid. Given that they have repeatedly broken the world transfer record, and are locked in a fierce rivalry with Barcelona, where they have repeatedly come second in recent years. Conventional wisdom therefore dictates that a few more big purchases will be in the offing. However, Real Madrid are now sitting atop a veritable mountain of debt, one that greatly exceeds its revenues, making it a default risk. Like Manchester City and Chelsea, it has a history of paying over the odds, so clubs tend to hike their aking prices when Madrid are involved. The club is profitable so long as no further mega purchases are made. Sooner or later, however, financial reality has to kick in. Gonzalo Higuain's being offered to the bigger English clubs is a break with traditional Real policy, which has focused on holding players like him, or selling them to smaller clubs for less money. In addition, rumours of the sale of Cristiano Ronaldo, if substantiated, may have more to do with the need to raise new cash, rather than any differences with the manager.

That about covers it. Expect a healthy trade in strikers, more massive trades by Manchester City and Chelsea, and to a lesser degree the other top clubs in the Premiership. Now that there are six teams with a shot of Champions' League football, the top end of the league is going to be even more cut-throat than before. Meanwhile, Real Madrid are not going to be content with being second best to Barcelona, and by hook or by crook will try to strengthen their team.

A final point of note is that the biggest purchase of all may not be a player, but a club. As part of their quest to dominate everything football-related, Qatar have been casting an appraising eye toward Manchester United. While the Glazers resisted the advances of the Red Knights consortium, it was because their price had not been met, rather than any attachment to the club. Money, of course, would not be an issue for Qatar, though whether, given all the negative PR that surrounds the country's footballing exploits, they could get away with a takeover remains to be seen. The prospect of the world's richest club becoming still richer is, to put it mildly, intriguing.

Greg Bowler divides his time between working and drinking and has unsuccessfully tried to combine both.