The end of Le Professeur’s Tenure?

Imagine being a manager of the third most valuable and fifth richest football club on the planet. Imagine having won three league titles, four FA Cups, and having reached the final of the Champion’s League. Imagine having set the record for longest undefeated run in Premiership history. Finally, imagine having done this all on a shoestring budget while still keeping one’s club insanely profitable. Welcome to the world of Arsène Wenger.

 

After Alex Ferguson, Wenger is both the longest-serving and most successful manager in the Premiership. It is no exaggeration to say that he has overseen a revolution in footballing tactics. Before Barcelona, it was Arsenal who pioneered the practice of developing youth talent from across the world. Under Wenger’s stewardship, the team have finally shed the “boring, boring Arsenal” image that dogged them for much of their history. Perhaps most incredibly, he remains the only manager to last a Premiership season without losing a match.

Unfortunately, for all this, Wenger has done little in recent years. His team has played some very telegenic football and notched up some great games, but has signally failed to deliver on the silverware front. As a result, it may be time for Arsenal fans to start considering what the post-Wenger future may be like.

Some days back, another writer on this site pointed out that 25/1 on Arsene Wenger being the first Premiership manager to be shown the door was excellent value. While this may be premature (it takes a truly awful run of form for a big club to sack a manager mid-season, unless they happen to manage Chelsea, and Wenger's unique style will be very difficult for another man to replicate), there is no doubt that, for the first time in over a decade, Arsenal's fans are beginning to become unsettled about their manager. When a club's fans chant "Spend some f**king money", one can deduce that something is not right. The situation isn't helped by the fact that the club is awash with cash. Aside from the globalised brand, the club also boasts the highest ticket prices in football, and a 5-year barren streak makes this seem like successively worse value with each passing season.

 

In one sense, Wenger has been unfortunate. His strategy of seeking value for money was exactly what clubs needed in the 1990's and early part of the last decade, particularly when the first transfer bubble burst. Back then, a little money went a long way. Thierry Henry was purchased in 1999 for £11 million. Marc Overmars cost half that. Most famously of all, Nicolas Anelka, purchased in 1997 for £500,000, was sold to Real Madrid two years later for £22.3m. However, the relentless flow of money into the game has changed that. Arsenal, once undoubtedly the best or second-best team in England, now found themselves displaced, first by Chelsea, and now by Manchester City. Money simply won’t go as far as it once did. Whereas £11m once bought a World Cup winning striker at the peak of his game, now it buys Gervinho, who has lots of potential, but little else.

However, that only tells part of the story. Arsenal, after all, has its own billionaire owners, in the shape of Stan Kroenke and Alisher Usmanov. They have indicated that they are willing to plough in the necessary funds. In addition, the club has raised plenty of transfer revenue, and with its low outgoings relative to other teams, it should be able to pay the necessary amounts. Most of the blame for Arsenal’s failure to adapt must therefore be laid at the feet of Wenger himself.

Why, then, has Wenger been so parsimonious with the purse-strings? Two answers stand out. The first is that for all his vaunted ability to acquire bargain-basement deals, he hasn’t been too successful with bigger purchases. Granted, there have been the Henrys and the Nasris, but there have also been the likes of Sylvain Wiltord, Francis Jeffers, and Jose Reyes, none of whom managed much. But more important than that is Wenger’s changed ethos. He wants to build a team, not buy one. The  team that reached the 2006 Champion’s League final cost a pittance compared to that of their rivals. For Wenger, a man who had scaled almost every height using conventional means, this was a way of bringing on a new challenge.

 

The problem is that this has now come unstuck. Cesc Fabregas leaving was inevitable, and not a product of any financial constraints. After all, one never truly owns an alumnus of la Masia, one merely rents them till Barcelona wants them back. More worrying is the fate of Samir Nasri.

Generally, Arsenal have been able to get away with lower wages than other clubs for a couple of reasons. Firstly, there wasn’t that great a differential until recently. Secondly, Wenger’s policy of hiring youths reduced the wage bill. After all, a player signing his first professional contract neither has much negotiating room or, for that matter, any idea of what he’s worth. Finally, they were a club who brought home silverware and guaranteed their players a place in the Champions’ League.

The problem is that, in the past ten years, Arsenal’s wage controls have caused its paying power to slip further down the ladder. Chelsea’s aggregate wage bill is now twice Arsenal’s, who now also lag Manchesters United and City, as well as Liverpool. Meanwhile, Arsenal came fourth last year, and are consequently only into the preliminary stages of the Champions’ League. A disappointing home game last Tuesday sees them going to Udinese next week holding onto a solitary goal lead. A few years ago, a game against the likes of Udinese would be little more than a formality, a way perhaps of blooding a few youngsters following a crushing home win. Now, it promises to be a challenge, a challenge that Arsenal may yet come off second best from.

It is telling that the first rumours that Nasri might be leaving Arsenal came not from an enquiry or expression of interest from another team, but from Nasri enquiring about whether there was another team interested in him, specifically Manchester United. It appears that, with the retirement of Paul Scholes last season Nasri came to the conclusion that there might be an opening with better prospects. Arsenal have pointedly refused to match his salary demands, but others will. With United apparently losing interest, it appears that Nasri may instead be on his way to City instead.

The above is indicative of a perception shift. Last season, for the first time in living memory, Manchester City finished ahead of Arsenal. This year, the smart money is that the result will be repeated. The best Arsenal can realistically hope for this year is fourth. Nasri was motivated not just by money, but by prospects. The danger for Wenger is that other players may follow his lead.

Arsenal is a veritable reservoir of talent. The problem is that this talent is both young and, relative to the rest of the top teams, poorly paid. Without the promise of prospects, those players may well up sticks for greener pastures. Arsenal is in danger of becoming like Porto or PSV, a club with a brilliant youth and scout system, that simply cannot afford to hold onto its players, and ends up a glorified feeder club.

 

Of course, this is easily avoidable, if only Wenger would loosen his purse strings and make a few big signings. At time of writing, his top signing this summer, Gervinho, is suspended. In the league, Arsenal are on one point out of a possible six. They have just suffered a humiliating home defeat against a resurgent Liverpool, who are casting avaracious eyes on Arsenal’s Champions’ League spot. Arsenal missing out on that could trigger another exodus next summer. And it would, in all likelihood, seal Wenger’s fate. For Arsène Wenger, the time has come to choose between the principles he holds dear, and getting the players his team badly needs to retain its status.

Post by Greg Bowler.

Too early to tell if apprentice will overtake the master

Disastrous start to the tipping for the new season – anyone who replicated this bloggers’ bets lost 2.5 points last weekend. Manchester United were the only positive result. All the other games ended in draws. To be honest this is the reason I dislike betting on football – it is a proper three horse race. Rugby on the other hand virtually removes the draw.

Alex Ferguson won the first battle in what will hopefully be a long war with Jose Mourinho’s protégé Andre Villa Boas. The premiership could do with a rivalry as intense as the Mourinho-Ferguson one.

Chelsea and United are in my opinion the only teams who will this year’s trophy – so effectively the Reds have a two point head start. This should not be underestimated: two points gained now is the same as two points won on the last day of the season, they are both added to a club’s final tally.

Before sitting down to write this edition of the blog, I watched the second leg of the Spanish Super Cup (Barca-Real). Unfortunately, I was at work so I could not give it my full attention, but it looked an exciting game. Barcelona lead 2-1 at half time, Real equalised, before Lionel Messi scored the winner, 2 minutes from time. Once again though ugly scenes marred the fixture – Marcelo received a red card for a horrible tackle on Cesc Fabregas, unfortunately for the Madrid man, the referee was not an Arsenal fan.

The game then experienced a nasty “brawl” with 22 on-field players, the management and substitutes getting involved just off the pitch. Soccer is perhaps the only sport, where brawl could be written in inverted comas, no one was hurt, not one punch was thrown, however there was some heated pushing and shoving, Mehmut Ozil got sent off for his part in the charade.

La Liga still has nothing to offer in comparison to the premiership: the big two are so far ahead of their rivals that the two “el clasico” games are the only ones worth watching. However both of these sides will play a big part in the Champions League, hence it is satisfying to see that Real look like a serious force this season and Barcelona are as good as ever.

Full steam ahead to RWC 2011

Ireland lost their second rugby international in a row, 19 – 12 against France in Bordeaux, last Saturday evening. This was the last game of the world cup build-up where performance outweighs the result. The reverse fixture against the French, this Saturday, is all about winning.

The team played well in the second half and could have easily taken a massive scalp – Ireland should overcome France at home and minus 3points at 10 to 11 is my pick of the week. Unlike last weekend the side picked, is close to a first-choice fifteen, there is still the Sexton – O’Gara debate, however rotation means that Sexton is in the hot-seat this weekend. Likewise O’Leary’s selection could be argued, but he is definitely the manager’s first choice.

Ireland won the second half, last Saturday, and should take that momentum into the home game. If Ireland win and then beat England seven days later, they will get on the plane with serious plans about topping their group and reaching the semi-finals.

Declan Kidney announces his world cup 30, on Monday. Peter Stringer has not made the squad for either the France game nor for the test against Connaught. His international career is probably over. This is absolutely absurd given that in my opinion, he should be a serious contender for the nine shirt against Australia. Stringer’s experience alone should have assured him of a place in the squad.

It is sad to see that young Conor Murray does not make the squad for the international and is instead the replacement nine for the game against Connacht. He played well for twenty minutes against France, but it looks like he is the fourth choice scrum half – only three will be selected in the touring party.

The first choice front row, for the world cup, will be Mike Ross, Best or Flannery and Cian Healy. Ross, Best, Healy have been chosen against France. The scrum is one of the few areas where Ireland believe they can trouble Australia. These three should spend every second prior to that game practicing their technique, to the point where they are uninvolved in other aspects of training.

England ripped the Wallabies apart, in this facet of the game, at the last world cup. If Ireland could win numerous penalties at the scrum, it would demoralise the opposition and turn this into an ugly, but winnable contest. Even when Australia trashed France 59-16, last November, they conceded a penalty try at the scrum.

There is no point running the Wallabies close in an open game, which happened in 2003.

That is all for this edition, kind of a two in one, remember tip of the week is Ireland minus 3 points to beat France (10 to 11). This tip is also being promoted because France have made 13 changes to the side that played Ireland last week. I think the bookies are focusing too much on the fact that Ireland have a dismal record against the French. The side put out by Kidney should be stronger than that of the French and Ireland need the win more.

M.C.

The Gaffer

In 2002 under the glare of 60,000 Dublin fans along with a smattering of Donegal fans, Jim McGuinness pleaded with referee Pat Mc Enaney for a free that never came. The moment stuck in my head as here was Donegals one true warrior searching for help. It was an ominous sign of what was to come. The game is remembered by Donegal fans as "the morning after". Famously six days previous, Donegal had drawn with Dublin in an epic All-Ireland Quarter Final. The team (and most fans) then proceeded to go on the lash for the next week. While this story has undoubtedly been blown way out of proportion, the performance the following week was well below the fare served up the week previous. However what it did highlight was the attitude among the players, that they were happy with an Ulster Final appearance and a draw against Dublin.

That team was potentially more talented then the current cohorts but they lacked the required mentality to succeed at a higher level. Similar only twelve months ago as the team bowed meekly from the Championship at the hands of Armagh people continued to ask the question of Donegal's mentalilty. What then has happened to turn this team of party animals into a well drilled, organised and mentally tough side? The answer is Jim McGuinness.

Having watched Donegal since in the mid-nineties, two things have been consistently obvious. One was that we never had a game plan and secondly that the team wasn't blessed with a never say die attitude of say an Armagh. While I don't mean to put down the teams of this era - the first 20 minutes of the second half of the 2003 All Ireland Quarter Final against Galway in Castlebar is still the best I've ever seen a Donegal side play - their success was borne from raw talent. In the aftermath of one of many humbling we've received - a qualifier loss to Cavan was particilily galling - the underlying feeling was never of despondency in the team but of the performance. If only somebody could come in and show the players they were letting Ulster titles and All-Irelands slip away, we'd be a formidable outfit. However, for whatever reason even great bainisteoiri like Mickey Moran and Brian McIvor, couldn't tame the wild beast. 

McGuinness has chiseled the raw talent at his disposal into a well oiled machine. In unison with the organisational side of things he's instilled an inner belief in the players. Last June against Down, early in the second half Donegal got into a commanding position without kicking on. Players seemed afraid to take shots on and this resulted in a game of hot potato on the Down '45. Even in the final minute when they needed a score to tie it up players passed the burden until Rory Kavanagh kicked a fine score. (His point that day illustrated the issue of this blog, the talent was/is there, it's the other components that are lacking).Compare this to the Kildare game where Kevin Cassidy stepped up with the game on the line and took the shot on. Where was he against Down? He hasn't suddenly become a good striker of the ball but he now wants to put his neck on the line. Bravery in sporting situations is not going in for the big tackle but in executing skills when the pressure is at its most intense. Being prepared to miss and take the blame that goes with that, is what Cassidy really done when he threw boot to ball.

In University I was a member of a group who presented a lecture on why we thought Warren Gatland was basically the dogs bollox of rugby management. He had taken a team who conceded four tries against Fiji to eliminate themselves from the World Cup and made them Grand Slam champions within six months conceding a record breaking two tries over the course of the whole Six Nations.While this achievement is noteworthy, fast forward three years and Gatland has never been able to reach these peaks again. History is littered with managers who thought they created kingdoms only to quickly realise it was little more then a fiefdom and the king came looking for the rent. In an era when sports teams invest millions in analytics, successful strategies are copied and better quickly. Great managers appreciate this and constantly tweak their approach slightly - even when their team is winning. Gatland failed to do this, as did Joe Kernan. This challenge is going to quickly fall at McGuinness' door. Passing this challenge will not only see him leading the Sons of Tir Connail up the steps of the Hogan Stand but will give him entry to the select club of truly great managers.

Seamus McDaid is an out of work sports agent living in New York City. Follow me @fbspecial.

United we stand, divided we fall

I've just regained my appetite for football, just in time I suppose. Come April or May it's only the Champions League Final, relegation 6 pointers or title deciders that I find watchable. 2nd week in August though everything is gripping, Swansea to Swindon, Chelsea to Crawley. Bookings indexes, goal averages, new signings, managers under pressure, handicaps and corners all get my full attention. You want to join dozens of fantasy football leagues, have tens of yankees on the outcome of the various divisions and want to secure a credit union loan for that price on the match bet that is simply wrong. Then reality strikes.
 
I understand punters haven't unlimited disposable income to invest thousands across multiple markets and can't take a weeks holidays simply to study every statistic available to man for the forthcoming season. I will therefore suggest a couple of bets which will neither break the bank nor take up too much of your time, yet may hold great interest right upto next May.

It is twenty years since a team won the premier league without having finished in the top three the season before. I've robbed this wisdom from the genius that is Kevin Pullien of the Racing Post. Therefore without too much extraordinary transfer happenings outside the top 3 (Man Utd, Chelsea & Man City), it looks a certainity that one of the '3' will win again. In fact in my opinion these three have strenghtened and the likes of Arsenal have weakened resulting in the gulf in class widening. The big three pays 1/5 dutched or combined, that in my view is more than fair.

Man Utd (7/4) have that winning mentality that Ferguson has obviously always instilled. I have been against them for years now, last year especially thinking their side was particularly mediocre, how wrong I was. This summer however I like the cleanout (O'Shea etc) they have performed, the youth and exuberance they have signed, and think if they sign Sneijder they will become unbeatable in England. Cue their downfall! 7/4 is fair. Ten out of eleven football traders for different major bookies in the RP Premiership pullout selected United for their 20th title, ominous.

Chelsea (11/4) haven't signed too many but I like Villa Boas and they might be a happy and formidable unit this season. Man City (4/1) have huge talent, however too much in my opinion, 'Too many chefs' and all that...

Liverpool (10/1) may put the wind up 1/5 backers though. They too look a settled side, two quality strikers, and a manager the players look up to. Carragher still set to start does not inspire me however. They should have bought a quality centre half to replace Carragher and complement some decent signings that have already been made.

The departure of Fabregas and Nasri from Arsenal (9/1) was inevitable, but the fact that this saga is finally coming to an end brings home the fact that the Gunners have no chance this season. I am a huge Wenger fan and I'm sure the Arsenal board are too considering how profitable and entertaining the club are he contributes to, but another trophyless prospect is too much to comprehend for fans. I can see Arsenal starting so poorly that Arsene might walk before Christmas, making him the first manager to leave at 25/1 attractive. Players like Nasri and Fabregas not wholeheartedly supporting his policy of youth promotion, patience and not buying success has surely dented Wengers pride and with the board not giving him much too spend, or alternatively his unwillingness to spend it, I feel Wenger might think he has brought Arsenal as far as he can.
 
The race for the Golden Boot is always a good betting heat at 9 or 10/1 the field. I think players from clubs like Man Utd, Man City, Chelsea are no value. There are no definites on the team sheet each week because of a feast of options, team rotation, European football ect. So Hernandez (17/2), Aguero (16/1), Torres(10/1) and co are not for me. Van Persie (10/1)would be enticing if he wasn't so injury prone. First men on the various team sheets this year with plenty of potential to score 20+ include Bent 12/1(Villa), Carroll 22/1 & Suarez 14/1 (Liverpool), Van der Vaart 40/1 (Spurs), Odemwingie 50/1(West Brom) and Cabaye (Newcastle).  With each way 1/4 1,2,3,4 places I believe small stakes on each will show a profit for the season. 

Liverpool to beat Arsenal at Even money is a fair bet for the season in my opinion. It maybe an unfashionable bet however due to it's length and short price.

It is worth noting the African Nations Cup is on next January and Febuary in Gabon and Guinea. This will most affect Chelsea, Arsenal and Blackburn.

I think Blackburn (3/1)are value for the drop this season. They are a poor side and with no real additions they are big price to be relegated. Their manager Kean is favourite for the first manager to go market at 9/4, that is about right. They have two fair centre halfs in Samba and Nelsen but injury or poor discipline is a worry to their only strength.

The team which take most of my attention pre season though is Aston Villa. At first glance; Mad to take on Alex McCleish, stupendous to let go Downing and Young and showing a lack of ambition. Further study reveals an able and hungry manager, great signings in N'Zogbia and Given, a settled side and one which will 'beat the rest' in my opinion. They mightn't beat Chelsea, United or City, they'll give Arsenal, Spurs and Liverpool a good go and I think they are better than Everton and the rest. They are 8/11 to be a Top 10 side, value. They get 28pts on the season handicap, value, and they are 9/2 without the 'big 6' (Man Utd,Chelsea, Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool & Spurs), each way 1/5 1,2,3 (or 7th, 8th, 9th most likely). It is very hard to see them not being placed in that market and it's easy to see them heading 'the rest'.   
I've briefly touched on some on my musings towards this season. Many will differ on opinion on what sides may do what. The casual punter should look at the Handicap market though for the season, it's an intriuging and fun market, and one which doesn't require a large outlay. The golden boot is an attractive market and Betting without the top six holds great interest throughout the season.

Happy campers, settled sides and teams united to the cause this season will perform the best in my shoddy opinion. I wish Ferguson would retire, I think it's the only way the opposition will wrestle the Premiership trophy from United's grasp.
Best of luck for the season. Enjoy.

Post by Peter Kingston

Anyone who comments below this post may avail of the following offers before kick off this Saturday in our shop;

12/1 Arsenal - Premiership
2/1 QPR - To be relegated
10/1 - Hernadez, Rooney and Torres - Golden Boot
4/1 Spurs - Top 4 Finish
9/2 The Field to beat Man Utd, Chelsea, Man City - Premiership

End of the long hot summer

The unofficial start to the new season happened last weekend, when Manchester United beat their city rivals 3 – 2 in the charity shield.

At half time it looked like the reigning Premiership champions were heading for defeat, they were two nil down, to what looked like a superior outfit. Had City won they would have erased some of the inferiority complex the club has within Manchester.

However normal service resumed after the break and United managed to draw level, they then won the game in injury time. Based on this performance, United and their aging manager still have the hunger to win and that is why they will be the team to beat this season.

The sad thing about the highly professional game is that only a select few teams can actually win the league. Personally I would be surprised if United and Chelsea do not finish first and second again, though not necessarily in that order.

The best guide to future events is past results and that means that Arsenal will choke, Liverpool will most likely not be competitive for the title and Man City will still be a mess off the pitch.

However the race for the top four could be more exciting than ever: I suspect that Arsenal will make it, but the final place will see the incumbent, Manchester City, possibly face a sustained threat from a rejuvenated Liverpool and a Spurs team, who have only the league to focus on this season.

City may suffer the same fate as Spurs did last year. Tottenham found competing on two fronts meant that league form suffered. However Manchester City have endless cash and this could be used to bolster their squad come January, if the current crop cannot handle the added workload.

Queen’s Park Rangers are the real unknown for the year: they are another with seemingly endless resources, however according to articles I have read, they have not really splashed the cash this summer. Perhaps their owners are hoping to make the club financially viable. This season will most likely centre around avoiding relegation – next season they will know what’s what and be able to spend sensibly, with the eventual aim of European football.

However despite my concerns that the season overall may prove to be drab, I will be an eager onlooker come next Saturday. The appetite was certainly whetted by the Community Shield, but the real business is only two days away.

From this week on I will try to include a small piece about gambling every week. This being the start of the season there is always the urge to bet on the league winner and on who will be relegated – avoid at all costs. You do not want to tie up cash till the end of the season.

After that statement I imagine that this blog will be followed by: “the views expressed by individual bloggers are not consistent with the opinions held by Kingbet or any of its affiliates”

But seriously, why have a bet that takes nine months to pay off - if you are in it for the long haul, buy Irish government bonds, they offer solid rates of interest and are going to give you a real sweat.

In the Newcastle – Arsenal game, which is live on ESPN (Saturday 1730), I fancy Arsenal at evens. Newcastle are supposedly in turmoil and Arsenal certainly have the nous to take advantage. On to Super Sunday, there are two live games. In the first game Chelsea are 4 to 6 away to Stoke, once again this smacks of value. In the later game Man United are 8 to 15 away to West Brom and for this weekend at least I will stick with the favourite.

Combine the three of them for a price of 4.12 to 1.

Anyone who mentions this treble in either Kingbet outlet, Drogheda or Clogherhead will receive the enhanced price of 9 to 2.

Till next week,

M.C.

To keep it simple the staking plan will be one point on each of the three games plus on the accumulator.

The Numbers Game

Sports fans come in many categories. There are the anoraks, those who can tell you the exact results of the 1988 FA Cup fifth round or the winning scores of the 1976 European Tour. There are the casual fans, those who will watch something if it's on, but who won't actually know the minutiae. And then there are those in between, those who will hold forth on subjects and know just enough about their subject to get by. I would hopefully count myself in that category, though others may beg to differ.

The classic wannabe question in a sport is "who is the best ever?". It sets off a debate, makes them seem more intelligent than they are, and conveys the impression that they have considerable knowledge about their field. In recent years, however, the growth of TV has moved sports in this direction. Forty years ago, almost no sport published rankings. Today, almost all of them do. The idea of "best ever" is here to stay.

The problem with this is that it is completely disingenuous, as "best ever" is almost unquantifiable. Sure, there are names that will forever be considered to be the top in their field. Think of Pele in football, Babe Ruth in baseball, or most obviously Muhammed Ali in boxing. Every talent since then gets compared to these.

It's human nature to compare things. Oasis spent most of their career being compared with The Beatles. Every dark fantasy novel is referred to as "the new Twilight". The problem is that in sport, while it seems easy enough to make a valid comparison, given that the rules of the game don't change, in practice no comparison ever is valid.

Tiger Woods has fourteen Majors to his name. Jack Nicklaus has eighteen. Ergo, Nicklaus is the best ever. However, this is flat wrong. If Woods, playing at his peak in the early part of this century, was to play against Nicklaus at his peak, there would be no contest. The Tiger would wipe the floor with the Golden Bear. The reason that Woods has yet to equal Nicklaus's record (he has plenty of time to do so) is because great though he is, he isn't as good relative to the rest of the field as Nicklaus was. Since Nicklaus's time, courses have been made longer and harder, and top golfers have moved from being semi-professional types to being full-time players who train from childhood.

The same applies to boxing. Much as people might like to dispute it, Lennox Lewis would probably have beaten Muhammad Ali if both fought at their peaks. Heavyweight boxing had simply moved to a different level. Of course, the most obvious field that this is shown in is athletics, as records continue to fall with every World Championship or Olympics. It is just over fifty years since Roger Bannister broke the four-minute mile. Now hundreds of people have done it.

However, there is a flip side to all of this. In Pele's time, football boots were poorly made lumps of metal with nails in them. Nowadays, the things are designed on computers. Similarly, when Jack Nicklaus went out with his three woods, the things were actually made of wood, unlike the titanium affairs of modern times. The switch from wooden racquets to metal ones in tennis coincided with a change in the gameplay to focus on serving rather than rallying, as metal racquets gave players increased hitting power. The fact is that the differences in ethos, training and equipment make comparisons over extended time periods worthless.

A second question arises when we move from looking at the best ever to the best of the moment. World rankings in sports are a comparatively recent invention. Golf's ranking system only started in 1986. The reason they became useful in certain sports was twofold. Firstly, the sheer profusion of events in fields like golf or tennis make it difficult to judge who the best is. Particularly in golf, very few players will win multiple tournaments in succession. When the only tournaments worth talking about were the Majors, it wasn't as important, as there were only four competitions, so anyone could follow it. Now, with the profusion of golf competitions out there, there isn't as clear a proxy, so we rely on the sporting federations to do our thinking for us. The second reason is the rise of television.

One of the things about American sports that so baffles outsiders is their obsession with statistics. American football pundits are the worst offenders. One cannot watch a ball being thrown in an American football game without a talking head informing you that it was the third longest throw this month, or something similar. I suspect that one of the reasons America still hasn't really taken to Association Football is that the sport doesn't lend itself easily to statistical analysis.

However, it's worth noticing that with the spread of television, statistics are now part of every sport. The fact that they use subjective measures means that to the anorak, they are useful only in demonstrating their obsession. After all, the world golf rankings award huge points for winning a Major, despite the fact that the courses are no more challenging than anywhere else on the tours. They are the prestige tournaments because we have decided they are. The same applies to tennis. People complain that Caroline Wozniacki is World No. 1 on the Women's tour without ever having won a Grand Slam, yet this misses the point. While she may not have won a Grand Slam, she's consistently performed at everything else, and after all, Wimbledon is no more technically challenging than any other grass court in the world.

Television has led to the mass-marketing of sport, and thus the growth of the casual fan. Previously, the only way to experience sport was to actually be physically at it. This meant a) sports fans tended to have a much deeper interest, and b) it would be in a much narrower field. A football fan could really only be able to attend one team's home games, which obviously gave him a much deeper understanding of this team, but a more introverted field of view for the league as a whole.

Nowadays, television has made it possible to watch much more sport than before. However, the amount of sport to follow has also shot up. In the 1970s there were twenty events on the European Tour. Now there are forty-seven. It has become increasingly difficult for a fan to follow all of this. Numbers simplify things nicely. Rather than having to keep track of every player's ongoing performances, the casual fan can simply check on a golfer's rankings to bluff his way through a conversation.

As sports continue to globalise, we can expect more of this. Sporting fans are more likely than ever to be unable to see events live. The amount of tournaments, matches and games to keep track of is going to grow, as developing countries see having a golf or tennis competition as a badge of prestige. The anorak fan, who knows the minutiae of Stoke City for the past fifty years, is dead. In his place is the fan who watches dozens of sports from across the world on satellite TV, and needs numbers to make sense of the whole thing.

Pundits, numbers, and statistics are now part of sport. We, the fans, have created the beast. Now we can but hope it won't destroy us.

Greg Bowler doesn't own an anorak, but is good with numbers.