No Irish Betting Shops Open Easter Sunday

What a farce. Another year goes by, another year of heartache for staff explaining why we can't open Easter Sunday. 'But Fairyhouse is on', 'but Liverpool are playing' and 'but I can bet online and over the phone can't I?!'

The Betting Act of 1931 is the legislation that dictates the opening hours of Irish betting shops still to this day. I appreciate we are in a busy and worrying time politically with the ongoing economic crisis the country faces along with the abortion debate and many more important matters. This archaic law is something which can be remedied quite quickly however and it is ridiculous we are still in this situation in 2013.

I'm not up on exact figures so you will have to forgive me when using numbers and averages loosely as I try to get the point across. There are a few reasons on why Irish betting shops being forced to stay closed on Easter Sunday is a farce, and more importantly why it is in the governments interest to change the legislation, as soon as possible.

A Loss of Income for the State
The Irish Government takes a 1% duty on all turnover in retail betting shops. According to the Irish Bookmakers asscociation website there are currently 1248 shops in Ireland.   http://www.irishbookmakersassociation.com/index.php
If you take in one of their illustrations that each shop turns over €3m a year (optimistic to say the least), that is €8,260 turnover per shop which is being missed out on. I'm allowing this optimistic average figure as Easter Sunday is one of the best days in the sporting calendar for betting. Fairyhouse, other racemeetings, premiership, golf, F1, GAA etc and a holiday weekend where most of the public are off Monday allows for a busy trading day. 8,260 x 1248 shops = €10.3 million turnover  Multiply the country's turnover by the 1% duty = a possible €103,084 duty the state is missing out on.

A Loss of Possible Earnings for staff
For simplicity sake; 1248 shops x 2 staff, all open 11am-6pm (some shops will have 3 staff, less busy 1)
At €10 an hour (again very simplistic) = 1248 shops x 2 staff x 7 hrs x €10 = €174,720
That is an awful lot of money. I'm not going into tax paid etc but you get the drift. Much of this would be extra wages, seasonal staff and in these times hugely appreciated.

Illegal Betting Thrives
Betting in public houses and by other means will thrive when sport is on and people are out enjoying their holiday weekend. It doesn't need explaining, anyone with common sense realises it. Why should the government worry themselves about this, but instead get a share of the trade and allow shops open.

What difference does it make 
Religion and family time is the only two defences that are put forward with this archaic law. This is outdated I reckon. Sport is on. People can go to Fairyhouse and Cork to bet. They can ring up or log online and bet. No one is dragging people into the shops, by all means go to mass or for a picnic but it's no reason to close shops. Leave the choice. And stop the black economy and unlicensed activity. People worried about problem gambling; shops take measures to help those with a problem, the unmonitored and unlicensed trade that will happen on Sunday will not.

I presume the multiples or chains haven't pursued this as it probably suits them as an annual event to move customers to open phone and online accounts and works as a great recruitment drive. There was legislation drawn up in the summer to allow open each evening and on Easter Sunday. But no sign of this going through the Dail. This is probably because of the intricacies and red tape involved in taxing online betting, the Easter Sunday issue however is simply solved.
http://www.merrionstreet.ie/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/Betting-bill.pdf  See section 22. But still we wait.
Another €100,000 in duty goes a begging and €175,000 in wages.

Peter Kingston
Irish Independent Bookmaker
Please note these are my own personal views and I do not represent anyone.


PS: Kingbet will be open Thursday evening and Easter Saturday, be sure to get your bets done then while we are open, for Good Friday and Easter Sunday when we remain closed. I'm not even contesting Good Friday!

Gold Cup Day Preview

I must not be be a stayer. Little time means the briefest of previews and selections on Day 4. I will however be backing a few stayers today in what should be rain softened ground come race time.

The triumph hurdle has a clear form pick in Our Conor for Dessie Hughes. He was a fair bet at 5's last week but now is about right. Far West looks a nice each way bet as the market stands at 5/1,11/2. He'll stay, the Nicholls form is overplayed and he'll stay well at the finish in what should be a furiously run race.

The County hurdle is a great race. With Kingbet paying 5 places it allows you back a few to take advantage of the place value. I think Cotton Mill will run a big race and is the class act in the race with some pounds in hand. Boringly i'll make him the main choice. ManyRiversToCross looks value at 33's too. A hardened handicapper now he looks back off a workable mark, I fancy him to be staying on late for a place. Ted Veale is respected from the Tony Martin stable. Though a lot of rain would not suit him.

The Albert Bartlett has cut up now with 3 non runners today, most notably Ballycasey. At Fishers Cross I think will win but is probably short enough now. You would have to be wary of the confidence behind the Twiston Davies African Gold, The New One's stablemate. He is a nice type like the favourite, he finds plenty off the bridle,a genuine and progressive sort. One other to mention is the all conquering Mullins Inish Island. He has form with At Fishers Cross. I think they will finish in the order of the betting. Yawn I know.

Gold Cup
Bobs Worth:Rock solid form, course form. Correct favourite. Only worry is lack of recent run
Cape Tribulation: Will be staying on at the finish for the minors. Lack of obvious pace a worry.
Captain Chris: Held on form with the principles. Worry about him left handed.
Long Run: Needs to be ridden fairly positively to make it a test. Stable confidence is big plus. Horses find it hard to win back to back, many have won championship races the year after.
Monbeg Dude: Surely not.
Silviniaco Conti:  Unblemished record this year. Couldn't fault him. Dangerous if slowly run.
Sir Des Champs: Trained for this race only. Course winner. But rain a negative for me and doesn't jump well enough.Short enough in betting as a result.
The Giant Bolster: Slightly overpriced. One of the solid yardsticks in the race. Will be thereabouts but lacks class to win.
Wayward Prince: Been awful this year. Talented but can't see it.
1 Bobs Worth 2 Silvianaco Conti 3 Long Run
I'll be laying Sir Des Champs a place.

In the Foxhunter's a bit like Our Conor, Salsify was the value at 4/1+. Now I'm unsure if the rain comes. Happy to be a layer in this race.

In the Martin Pipe Conditional his son has favourite Gevrey Chambertin. Really been visually impressed with him so far, but he's no real value on what he's done form wise. Imperial Cup winner First Avenue looks too big each way simply for his recent form, ability to handle the rough and tumble of such a race and negative opinion he's held attitude wise. Village Vic looks well handicapped but ran average in the Betfair Hurdle.  Salubrious has form with some Albert Bartlett runners so his mark may become clearer post 2.40.

Alderwood is the obvious plot in the Grand Annual. He's another to have halved in price in the past week. Petit Robin and Tanks for That are the two that make most appeal at the prices. Especially Petit Robin who has been a revelation this year over hurdles, he's as good a chaser and with the form he's in, a good claimer taking 7lb off his back he looks fairly treated to make him a bet each way.

Longer than anticipated, maybe I do stay. Good luck!
Like everyone wishing JT McNamara pulls through and makes a full recovery.

Day 3 Cheltenham Festival Preview

This is some card. Cheltenham, the gift that keeps on giving.

The Jewson Novices chase has been lit up with the declaration of Dynaste. He has a solid look as a favourite and fairly priced. Kingbet and some other bookmakers are giving money back if your 2nd to the favourite which is a nice concession. Noel Meade had a late change of heart and entered Texas Jack in the race. His form has been boosted yesterday by the Irish horses in the RSA and was a cracking each way bet earlier in the week, as pointed out by judge and blogger Tony Keenan (@racingtrends). I would have completely missed his entry in a busy week otherwise as you take it for granted the non handicaps are not changing shape once the week is upon us. Aupcharlie splits opinion, in one sense the drop back in trip looks ideal and today he could be a cracking bet, another line of thought is why hasn't he gone and won some of the races he has contested in tight finishes and maybe he is a bit soft. I'm sitting on the fence with him as he's short enough. Tom Georges Module is highly thought of and respected though his team have not fired yet this week. Captain Conan is priced on reputation that form thus far, while Marito is obviously well highly regarded in the Mullins stable as money for him and may still have to see the best of the French import. Texas Jack under a patient ride looks best value to win or come 2nd to the favourite. I'm not normally critical of jockeys but again Tom Scudamore is one of few who doesn't give me confidence.

The Pertemps Hurdle has more plots than a Sherlock Holmes series. But my pick has been ShuttheFrontDoor for some time. 7/1`now I can't see him out of the frame. Earlier double figure quotes have been snapped up and he is primed for today. Sam Winner is obviously respected, as is Pateese at a big price at 40's.

The Ryanair is good renewal, not many runners, but a competitive 8. I can't put anyone off First Lieutenant, he's my idea of the winner for the past 6 months. As is Bobs Worth tomorrow in the Gold Cup. A double is not the worst bet. With the dead 8 however Menorah 8/1 and for Non Stop 14/1 appeal each way with a quarter of the odds a place, favourable each way terms.

The world hurdle is a bit of a maze. I'm going to side with good ground and course performer in Get Me Out Of Here each way 9/1. On at 20's I'm glad ground looks to have dried up well. You can discount his winter runs. I'd say they were half in preparation for the Coral Cup but since Big Bucks absence they are aiming now for Big Bucks. Solwhit could be the class angle and unexposed horse at 3miles, and he certainly gets my saver.

In the Byrne Group Plate I'm cheering on the green and gold again as I believe Cantlow 7/1 has been prepared nicely to win a handicap like this. Hunt Ball and Mad Moose should run well at a track they have before and are both in cracking form. The favourite is many peoples handicap blot of the week and will be well backed.

The Kim Muir looks impossible. 5 places with Kingbet is a big help.Problema Tic is my choice each way. There's not much confidence behind Alfie Sherrin at time of typing but that may change and he's respected.

X Country if the ground seems to be drying out during the day I'd have the slight preference for the once classy Bostons angel. Outlaw Pete if he put his best foot forward the biggest danger. 16 runners here so nice each way.

If JP McManus and AP are interviewed post race multiple times today I'm in business! Or will it be a break from the norm with Noel Meade training a winner up the hill. Either or I'll be happy, both and I'll be elected.

Day 2 Cheltenham Preview

Mullins domination may continue into the start of day 2 with highest rated Back in Focus favourite for the 4m National Hunt Chase. He looks the class act in the field and the step up in trip looks in his favour as he seems a dour stayer. The booking of Derek O’Connor for Rival D’Estruval is noteworthy and Tofino Bay has pieces of form which appeals yet looks held by Back in Focus despite getting big help in the saddle from Nina Carberry. Truthfully after seeing P Mullins outridden by Jane Mangan on Sunday, him riding his father’s horse does not inspire confidence, but despite this 3/1 seems more than fair.

I believe Pont Alexandre is far too short for the Neptune Investment Novices Hurdle at 6/4 and less. Course and distance winner The New One appeals most. I loved his run the last day in defeat to At Fishers Cross, pulling clear of solid yardsticks Coneygree and Whisper. Before that the Twiston Davies charge had been hugely impressive against soft opposition. He may improve for better ground too but has shown he handles a test over C & D. Taquin du Seuil has good form in the book (good 2^nd to My Tent or Yours in Ascot) and is highly thought of, as is Rule the World  of Mouse Morris’. I don’t take his beating of Minsk and Champagne Fever anywhere near literally (As C Fever was found post race to have a lung infection, Minsk made horrible mistake with a circuit to go and both went too quick early), despite this he could only win and win well he did. Minsk is an infuriating type. At 40’s though I’m willing to forgive each way. His fourth to Jezki in Fairyhouse where he was just tapped for toe, his comprehensive beating of Glens Melody, serious flat ability and excuse for the margin of defeat vs Rule the World makes the big price hard to turn down. Though one worry is that he may be better right handed and his most recent run at Leopardstown was poor to say the least.

Unioniste’s form got a boost with Golden Chieftain winning the JLT Tuesday. Course winners won 4 races on Day 1 and this is a big plus for the Nicholls runner. Boston Bob done well to win in Leopardstown latest and should relish the stiff test of an RSA as well. Hadrians Approach will be near Unioniste in the finish. I slightly prefer the English here in terms of value. Terminal is highest rated but looks 2^nd string. Goulanes has made hard work of each of his victories but respected. I think Ruby maybe the difference in a tight affair but no real bet for me.   

For a while the Queen Mother looked a bore but now it excites me. Mail De Bievre and Santuaire may well soften up Sprinter Sacre for the first time and it is my hope and belief at the prices that Sizing Europe will land the killing blow. Sustained pressure on Sprinter from the aforementioned French named pair may be the key, and Sizing Europe’s flawless jumping and top class ability sees him a cracking each way bet for me tomorrow at 6/1. Sprinter Sacre may well win again impressively but this is a big and final step of going down in the history books as a 2m great, but Sizing Europe for me is his toughest opponent test yet.

In a fiercely competitive renewal of the Coral Handicap, Pendra and Cash and Go make most appeal. With 5 places on offer one can afford to back a couple of selections in search of profit. I would have preferred to see Rattan in the County Hurdle on Friday.

I’ve little clue in the Fred Winter and hope to get a result as a layer.

The bumper is a great betting race; the amount of racecourse whispers, preview bankers and gallop watchers naps for the race creates great hysteria in the market. For what it’s worth I was most impressed with Le Vent D’Antan of Liz Doyles in Leopardstown and I can see Sgt Reckless travelling supremely well into the race at the bottom of the hill with Hughsie perched to provide a great trading opportunity.

It’s a great card, enjoy and the best of luck.

Peter

Day 1 Cheltenham Festival Preview 2013

When they lift the covers for the 2013 Cheltenham Festival there will be no time for drying ground. Dead, tacky, energy sapping turf will be the order of the day Tuesday.  Most races will go a good pace early bar maybe the Champion Hurdle and the Cross Country. Markets for the non handicaps are now settled after months of trading and a few adjustments allowing for conditions. There is not much value left in these in truth, but various money back offers and ¼ odds a place leaves some room still to take a side.

One angle I’m very interested in is doing multiple bets with horses of the same formline that you believe is strong. I believe this is a related bet, but one which is allowed. For instance you can’t back Van Persie to be top goalscorer for the season and Man Utd to win the league at full odds in a double, as one selection winning means the other has a far greater chance. Similarly you cannot back Barry Geraghty and Nicky Henderson at full odds in a double this week at Cheltenham to top the jockey and trainer standings respectively, as one winning will most likely mean the other will prevail too. 

Though not as closely related as some examples above, backing a horse from a race you believe is the best form line, or on a line through horse(s) that they have run against that you believe sets a  strong standard may provide an opportunity to multiply value. If you have got the view of a strong form line correct  (easier said than done), well then you may be on to something in terms of getting leg 1 right, leg 2 may be taken at a far bigger price than the sp go off or that leg 2 should be considering the connection.

2 quick examples to try and highlight this are as follows (Not exactly dark horses!);

The New One 9/2 Neptune Novices & At Fishers Cross 4/1 Albert Bartlett

My Tent or Yours 7/4 Supreme Novices and Cotton Mill 7/1 County Hurdle

If the first part of either these doubles win and you’ve taken prices (necessity for this angle), you will more than likely be on the 2^nd leg at an enhanced price due to the form being franked. Therefore the multiple has provided you with enhanced value.

The point is rather than believing The New One is actually a 7/2 shot in your opinion, At Fishers Cross 10/3, the value over time is far greater in multiplying the perceived edge. As by your opinion being correct on the first leg, leg 2 is far shorter in your book, and probably far shorter with the layers as a result.

Please comment underneath or get back to me on twitter whether you believe there is something in this or not. Either way let me know. If you believe there could be something to it why not suggest horses or formlines that you believe may be a good example for the week ahead…

Tuesday

1.30 Supreme ; Champagne Fever was tempting in the conditions at double figures earlier in the week. My Tent or Yours is far more solid than previous favourites of the race with such a high rating. The hill and test of stamina the worry, including what looks like possibly the best Supreme field for years. I think the jolly will win. I’m intrigued to see how Un Atout  gets on, so much potential, but that’s the problem, at the prices its only potential you’re clinging on to. Something like Cause of Causes at a big price with form in the book, and a tough sort with stamina to handle the test of the race is more attractive.

2.05 Arkle

7 runners results in less of an interest each way. Simonsig and Overturn are more priced on potential over fences. Simonsig does look hugely impressive and I wouldn’t be surprised by a big performance. Arvika Legionnaire’s form is decent, especially his defeat of Dedigout in Fairyhouse. The worry is a hard season and going left handed mightn't be his preferred. The other big worry is that he and Overturn are likely to take each other on and there will be a fierce pace on. The only view I have on this race is that Arvika Legionnaire may trade very short for a place turning in and he’s worth laying before the pressure of the hill comes on.

2.40 JLT Handicap Chase

White Star Line is the pick here. 2^nd last year to Hunt Ball off 3lb higher but over 3 furlongs shorter, he could be very well treated here. 14/1 represents value, especially with 5 places and his owner is known for a punt and if fancied this could go off half the price.

Golden Chieftain is the other one that appeals down the bottom of the handicap at 40/1. He’ll be well able for testing conditions, 3^rd here to Unioniste in an attritional race and scooted in off 5lb lower in Worcester in the Autumn by 14 lengths.

3.20 Champion Hurdle

I think 2/1 Hurricane Fly means you are taking on trust connections and willing to draw a line through last year, I’m not so quick to forgive. This market is mature though and there is not too much value left. In a slowly run race with no obvious pace on, something like Grandouet with plenty of toe would be of interest was it not for his interrupted prep. Binocular, Rock on Ruby and Countrywide Flame are all snippets of value for me but not enough to have a bet.

4.00 Cross Country

A fierce open renewal. 16 runners will give some value to punters with four places. I have no real opinion.

4.40 Mares Hurdle

Quevega will win if the same mare but priced accordingly. Swing Bowler brings the best recent form for me and looks the bet without.

5.15

Colour Squadron was much better than the bare form for all his chase starts. While the handicapper hasn’t gave him a mark literally for those runs, he still looks to have minimum 10/12lb in hand, which we must remember is nearly the minimum needed to win a festival handicap. If nothing else he’s 2lb lower than his hurdles mark that was still unexposed and hadn’t reached its full potential and looks to make for a better chaser. Handbrake off tomorrow. The value has been squeezed out of him this week. Double figures in to best 6/1 now. Though he’ll probably go off 7/2. I think he’ll win. He’ll get the best help in the saddle.  

4/6 The Supreme to be quicker than the Champion Hurdle took the eye. If it was 10/11 I'd bet. The Supreme with Un Atout and Champagne Fever dragging it along looks like it will be quicker, but 4/6 is about right in my opinion. Another interesing market I seen was the race with the biggest winning distance.. 7/1 The Arkle,a  race in which I think will fall apart up the straight due to the frenetic early pace and lack of depth in the field is enticing as well as the 4m National Hunt Chase at 16/1. The combination of the trip, ground and possible gulf in class (hopefully Back in Focus) may lead to a big margin.

Best of luck for the week. The greatest show on earth. Let the games begin.

Dive in for Mo

An extraordinary sporting 12 months for Great Britain in 2012 and to mark this astonishing year, 12 nominees will be chosen as special dispensation by an expert panel including Denise Lewis, Tanya Grey Thompson and Steve Redgrave to contest BBC Sports Personality of the Year. The event will return to its usual Sunday night slot on December 16^th.  The beeb were left red faced last year with no women on the shortlist but one can assume a diverse list this year including women and paralympians. This will be nothing short of what the likes of Jessica Ennis, Ellie Simmonds and David Weir deserve. The head of the betting though is still male dominated with Wiggins, Farah and Murray with their supporters.   

I’m not going to bore you with whose sporting achievements outweigh each other’s in such a golden year. A mention however for someone who will be lost in the galaxy of stars that will hit the Excel to be honoured. I am in awe of what the Brownlee brothers achieved this year and they will hardly get a look in on the night, Alistair will possibly be one of the 12. Alistair came back from a torn hamstring in January to win gold in the Triathlon at the Olympics, his brother Johnny bronze despite a time penalty and finishing physically exhausted and violently ill for a special medal double for family and country. Johnny won the Triathlon World Championships recently to cap a wonderful year. To put into context of Alistair’s greatness for those not familiar with triathlon, he completed 1500m swim, 43km on the bike and a 10km run in 1hour and 46mins. His 10km run at the end of this gruelling test was only 97 seconds slower than Mo Farah’s gold winning run for the same distance on the track. In another year his accomplishments would have to be recognised.

I digress. Who’ll win, what’s the value they scream. Who deserves it and emotion have no place here. I like to treat the BBC SPOTY like I’d treat a political election in terms of betting and possible outcomes. Sport popularity, people’s perception, vote sharing, demographic that vote and what BBC show on the night all has a part to play. In that sense the final 12 will have a knock on effect on the votes the main protagonists may receive. For example Wiggins cause may be diluted the more cyclists on the shorlist; Hoy, Storey, Pendelton, Kenny and Trott all possibles. Poulter and McIlroy may split a golf vote, while one or other would be more dangerous. Andy Murray will fly solo for Tennis and have a patriotic Scottish vote unless Hoy is involved. Mo Farah, Jessica Ennis and Greg Rutherford you may say would split an athletics vote. Weir, Simmonds and Storey are all paralympians with fantastic achievements but may split votes from those inspired watching the channel 4 action earlier this year. Weir for me was particularly sensational, winning 4 golds from 4 events, 800m up to marathon in the ultra-competitive wheelchair racing events.

The Storm begins...

“It’s only when the tide goes out that you see who’s swimming naked” Warren Buffett

Sometimes they call it Hobson’s Choice. More accurately it is termed Morton’s Fork, a situation in which no choice can lead to a good outcome, yet a decision must be made. Such was the case with the recent decision by the Scottish Premier League to reject the application of Newco Rangers’ application for membership. There was a choice between fatally crippling the economic model of the SPL or breaching the integrity of the game by making an exception on pragmatic grounds. Either choice meant the end of the SPL as we know it, and no matter what decision they came to, there was going to be a huge degree of buyer’s remorse.

Glasgow Rangers are now by some margin the most high-profile club ever to fold. The Old Firm, the colloquial name for their rivalry with Glasgow Celtic, was one of the world’s great sporting feuds. Granted, it was rather uglier than most footballing rivalries (eight deaths were attributed to Old Firm clashes between 1996 and 2003), and its sectarian tint was a stain on Scottish football for decades, but at the same time it was one of the most exciting matches on the calendar. Now those days are in the past. Celtic have, for the moment, achieved total victory over their rivals.

The question is, what now, for Rangers, Celtic, and the SPL as a whole? This isn’t like Portsmouth going south a few years ago. Portsmouth were a very small fish in the biggest pond of them all. Rangers were a very big fish in a very small pond. Their collapse is more analogous to the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, an event of such scale that it threatens to take down the whole system.

The obvious thing is preventing such events recurring. The problem is that this was what Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls a Black Swan event, one that was outside the normal parameters of foreseeability. The tax troubles that brought down Rangers could perhaps be prevented, but only by a more intrusive auditing mechanism by the league as a whole. Other clubs, whose own debt positions might not be as benign as an initial glance could suggest, would undoubtedly not be too fond of anything that might shed light on their problems. And even this is a specific solution to a more general problem, namely the vulnerability of already indebted clubs to financial shocks. Tax issues are not the only way a club could suddenly find its debt position worsening suddenly. The reality is that the tax problems were a symptom of greater issues with Rangers’ finances, rather than the underlying cause of their woes.

If tax issues were a high-impact, low-probability event for Rangers, then the demise of Rangers was doubly so for the SPL. A huge portion of the SPL’s revenue model was derived from Rangers and Celtic. The SPL has never been a model of fiscal probity, with five clubs having entered administration in the decade and a half that the league has been in existence. While the huge disparity between the Old Firm and the rest of the league was frustrating from a sporting point of view, the revenues accruing from the Glasgow giants were vital to the other clubs. Playing Rangers was a guarantee of good gate receipts.

More important were the TV deals. Following an internal renegotiation of the distribution of TV revenues in 2003, the SPL had a degree of redistribution of TV cash from the bigger clubs to the smaller ones. With TV deals being signed collectively by the league, the aggregate quality of clubs in the league is as important as the quality of any given club. The deal for the forthcoming five seasons is worth about £80m to the league. However, Sky and ESPN signed that deal on the basis of being able to screen four Old Firm games a season. With that out the window, a substantial downwards renegotiation of the TV deal is on the cards.

Anytime a club with a rich history drops out of sight is a loss for football. Leeds United’s fall from grace a decade ago certainly did the English Premiership no favours, what with there being no Yorkshire club left there, but Leeds were only one of a number of big clubs, and so their loss could be absorbed. There could still be high-profile matches in the Premiership without Leeds. Rangers were one of two top teams in the SPL. The qualitative difference between Celtic and the remaining teams is so great as to make the league a pointless affair for the foreseeable future.

If the SPL as a whole has lost out spectacularly from this, then Celtic’s loss has been greatest of all. All great sporting rivalries are inherently symbiotic affairs, and the Old Firm was the bitterest of them all. No other European pairing could match Celtic and Rangers for combined success and geographical proximity, the two primary factors from which rivalries are born. The sectarian side of things may have been unpleasant, but the bitterness made for some great matches. Much as they may detest their Glaswegian counterparts, Celtic are going to rue their absence. By some estimates the Old Firm was worth £120m for the two clubs and the surrounding area. In losing their greatest rivals, Celtic have also lost their greatest source of revenue.

In the short term, Celtic are going to romp through the league. Rangers were the only ones who came close to giving them a run for their money. It’s been a quarter of a century since another club won the league, and six years since another finished second. For the next few years we can assume that clubs are going to line up to have Celtic destroy them. However, in the medium term, Celtic’s greatly diminished revenue will impact on their purchasing power, and the quality of their players is likely to disimprove. As a result, while the gap will never fully close, it is likely that Celtic will be gradually reduced to something more approximate to the quality of the rest of the league.

Meanwhile, the effects will be felt most strongly at the lower end of the scale. In voting against allowing Newco Rangers to join, a number of SPL clubs may have cut their own throats. Never a paragon of prudent financial management, the SPL is facing the prospect of up to half its teams going into administration within the next year. The short term fillip of potential Champions League football for whoever now finishes second is only going to last until UEFA reallocate the spot to a more deserving league in football terms. Each club also had the guaranteed money spinner of hosting Rangers at least twice a season, as well as a share in the TV money pot. With these gone, the financial pinch will be all the more acute.

The major question is what should happen next. In the least bad scenario, the SPL clubs come to their (fiscal) senses and bring Newco Rangers into the fold. In the absence of full agreement, a breakaway league would be a possibility, as would folding the four tiers of Scottish football into two so as to shorten the time it would take Rangers to get back to the top, though this would have the consequence of reducing Old Firm games to two a season. Assuming that there is no consensus on these, things get messy.

The first imperative is to get Celtic out of the SPL. Without the Old Firm, it would only be a matter of time before Celtic find themselves staring down the barrel of financial ruin. Meanwhile, the situation for other clubs does not improve. Once UEFA take the second Champions League spot from Scotland, any club has to mount a challenge to Celtic. Winning a Rangers-free SPL will be every bit as hard as coming second in the old one. Meanwhile, the overwhelming dominance of Celtic would rapidly make the SPL a rather disinteresting affair. However, if Celtic left the league, there would at least be some competition. Each club would now have a shot at Champions League football, albeit at an earlier start point than before. In addition, the financial burden on the other clubs would be reduced, as each would have to build a squad to beat each other, rather than the vastly richer Celtic. In the short term, there would be a financial hit, but it would be less than expected. Most of the damage to the TV deal was done when Rangers left, and the loss of the second Glasgow club would not be much more problematic. Meanwhile, attendances might actually pick up if teams thought they had a shot at winning the league, rather than coming second.

For Celtic, too, the exit is the only way to avoid catastrophe. Even if the English Premiership didn’t take them, the Championship would still be worth it, particularly if the club was capable of being promoted. The alternative is a steady decline in Scotland. Celtic are too big for the SPL, and their continued presence there will only harm both parties in the long run.

There are wider lessons to be learned from this mess. The deepening weakness of balance sheets in the SPL and beyond have left clubs supremely vulnerable to system shocks. As clubs have amassed ever greater amounts of debt, and player wages continue to spiral out of control, a point has now been reached where carnage is inevitable. Even in the good times, SPL clubs were still going into administration, and with the loss of Rangers and the revenue therein, the situation is doomed to worsen. A league with this level of volatility will never function properly.

What is to be done? The SPL may now face a massive correction that sees it reduced in stature to something similar to the other secondary leagues in the British Isles. For other leagues, there is still a chance to mitigate the problem. Forcing clubs to hold cash equivalent to a certain proportion of their revenues would go a long way towards strengthening their balance sheets. Wage and transfer controls would enable clubs to plan effectively for the future. And keeping public accounts would alert authorities to clubs in danger at an early stage.

The reality is that no business is risk-free. However, in a football league all parties have a certain degree of interdependence, and therefore a responsibility to each other. Other clubs will be dragged under by Rangers’ demise. And the SPL is not alone. Rangers may well be the first of a string of clubs to pass from administration into liquidation. Already Portsmouth look to be inching towards the brink. In Germany, FC Schalke still labour under the weight of the debt they incurred building the Veltins-Arena a decade ago, while in Holland, Feyonoord’s ongoing failure to make an impression in Europe has pushed it into the danger zone.

However, the country with the most to learn from Rangers’ collapse is Spain, where, like the SPL, the league is a duopoly where the two main clubs have grossly disproportionate clout. The difference is that the sums in Spain are much, much bigger. Over the past fifteen years, Barcelona and Real Madrid have engaged in a titanic arms race that has seen the two clubs pay the five highest transfer fees in history, at the cost of stacking up mountains of debt. While both clubs now look reasonably stable, the same would have been said of Rangers a year ago. A robust facade hides a deep vulnerability to the unexpected. The problem is, the unexpected will be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.

The debt spiral in European football has been claiming peripheral casualties for years. This may be remembered as the point where major clubs start going under. The onus is on leagues and governing bodies to protect the future of the game, lest it not be so beautiful anymore.




Post by Greg Bowler