The Ripple Effect

Tom Daley won the Diving World Championships in Budapest on Sunday the 23rd of July. He caused a real shock in doing so, beating fancied Chinese divers in the process. But this was no fluke, a score of 590.95 would have been enough to win last years Olympics in Rio. An Olympic Gold medal still the big goal for the Plymouth 23 year old. It should be enough to make the BBC Sports Personality shortlist of nominees in a quiet sporting year.

Tom Daley's social media presence is huge. Only Joshua is in the same ball park with an impressive 4m followers on Instagram. Daley though is a well oiled PR machine. 2.65m twitter followers, 2.67m likes on facebook, 1.8m instagram followers and 485k subscribers on Youtube. A vlog of his world championship win has had 472k views. The diving sensation though has created more interest in himself outside of the pool, as in. 864k people have viewed his wedding video on youtube, the ad revenue from which will go to Switchboard LGBT charity. Daley married Dustin Lance Black this year, a Hollywood Screenwriter.

	Anthony Joshua	Jermain Defoe	Mo Farah	Chris Froome	Johanna Konta	Tom Daley
Twitter Followers	1.39m	959k	1.5m	1.37m	81k	2.65m
Facebook Likes	2.2m	?	1.12m	564k	33k	2.67m
Instagram Followers	4m	413k	608k	714k	86k	1.8m

Daley is a good looking chap who already had a huge following before coming out in 2013 as a gay man. This only heightened the interest in Daley and he's coped with the media really well it seems, coming across as really likeable. A trait I found is useful after getting Vardy wrong in 2016, backed in from big prices to a low of 2/1, the Leicester front man wasn't mapped with a pitiful vote on the night. 

Anthony Joshua is a Rolls Royce of a man and now a World Heavyweight Champion. His performance to beat Wladimir Klitschko was epic. Daley's husband couldn't have scripted the drama that was like something out of a Rocky movie. Joshua is priced accordingly though at 4/9 best. No rematch before the awards is possible as Klitschko is retired. Jermain Defoe won't make the shortlist in my opinion. His popularity is not in question after acts of kindness with the late Bradley Lowery but maybe another recognition is more suitable. Mo Farah and Chris Froome are in the same boat for me, massive negatives. Their superb achievements in their sports have yet to see them even place in BBC SPOTY despite Tour de France wins and 5/10k doubles at the last two Olympics. When Mo completed the double double in 2016 in Rio he could only garner 55k votes, nearly 200k short of Andy Murray. Froome similarly getting 37k votes in 2013 and 39k in 2015 winning his first two Tour de France titles and not even nominated last year when winning his third. Another blog could be written on why they haven't done well; I suspect not being born in the UK, residing much of the year abroad and suspicion around whether they are competing clean the big drawbacks. Peaty is at the top of his event in swimming but only received 11k votes in 2016 when breaking 2 world records on the way to his Olympic 100m Breaststroke gold. 

Since an all male contest in 2011 the organisers have changed who picks the shortlist and this probably ensures female representation. The field is not deep this year and neither is there many sporting events on for that to change. Andy Murray or Johanna Konta could win the US Open tennis but that's about it. If Tom Daley makes the shortlist and acknowledges it, his legion of fans and followers could cause a real upset on December 17th in Liverpool. Daley entered the pool with hardly any splash at all in July to make this possible, but the ripple effect may only be realised nearer the time when a likely viral campaign becomes apparent.    

Tom Daley is 100/1 with some big firms and top price 150/1 with another. He's much too big and could turn out to be the only real threat to Joshua for the gong. 

Cheltenham Thoughts

A Change is as Good as a Rest 
Clondaw Warrior is a good example of how Willie Mullins can improve a horse. Gigginstown moved horses away from Mullins last September. Many of which went to Elliott, some to De Bromhead. De Bromhead has lost Potts horses to the Tizzards and Harringtons. Apples Jade, Supasundae and Sizing John all won for new handlers. The merry go round has only seemed positive to a lot of the horses sent to aforementioned trainers.
Post Nichols Canyon triumph in the Stayers Hurdle, Willie Mullins told Lydia Hislop on RUK how he had changed his work rider and stable in the lead up to the festival to improve his form. The change in routine worked the oracle, this was a interesting insight into one of the best trainers in Britain or Ireland.

Trainer Motivation
Trainer's can be creatures of habit. Often targetting races at local tracks, big prizes where they've had luck in the past or races that have deeper meaning to them, memorials etc. It's no secret how friendly the Harringtons and Hendersons are, sharing their homes for the week of Cheltenham and Punchestown respectively. Gordon Elliott learnt his trade when a rider for Martin Pipe, he has long targeted the race named after his old boss. It was remarkable then that both Gordon Elliott and Jessica Harrington would win races so important to them, the concluding two on the Friday, with 1 dart a piece.

Thanks be to the Loose Horse
Might Bite. What a performance, what a horse. I'm not quite looking forward to Cheltenham 2018 yet but I am giddy at the prospect of this screwball dominating the King George at Christmas. He didn't battle or eye Whisper, but decided to follow the loose Marinero who passed him at the ideal moment to allow time for the Scorpion to sicken Russell. Couldn't write it. And the gallant Pendra, denied by Domesday Book who consented to run on late when a loose horse ran in front leaving Gina Andrews elated. Reminder that horses are a herd animal and sometimes the more unique characters conform to what's natural, ironically.

Left Alone on the Lead 
Un de Sceaux and Special Tiara are breaking each others hearts for quite some time, taking each other on up front in races, softening each other up for the rest to pick up the pieces. Un de Sceaux may have made up Rubys mind for him, but it was telling these two great front runners were left alone on the lead and suceeded as a result. Dangerous when uncontested. Willoughby Court was an all the way winner in the Neptune, getting what I'd describe as a soft lead. Might Bite just put them all to the sword but then got bored. Horses that make all are rare around Prestbury Park. Being left unaccompanied though can be a big help.

JP's Wide Throughout
When re watching the races, I found myself writing this down on numerous occasions (when having a moment forgetting the name of what he actually owned). Zamdy Man, Edwulf (thankfully ok), Modus, No Comment and Castello Sforza gave the outside to noone. Must have had the Champion Hurdle winning owner pulling his hair out by the time the Martin Pipe came around.
The stands rail was popular on the new course, indeed some winners were succesful coming with their run against it. Ciaran Gethings on No Comment overdid this I thought however, losing significant ground aiming up the rail when those in the centre went clear by taking a straighter course.

10ml Watering Wednesday Night
This was a fair amount to put on. I can understand why. Welfare is most important but this was more than in the past. Selective watering took place last year on the same day and in year's gone by, 2/3ml was applied halfway through a dry meeting. Connections of good ground horses have a right to feel hard done by, but best to learn from it than complain about it looking forward as welfare trumps the preferred going of a group of horses every time. Might be worth stating what the clerk will aim for than the surprising figure we learned Thursday morning last, to the dismay of Cole Harden backers and unbridled joy of Un de Sceaux scarf makers.

Horses to follow
When reviewing the 28 races there was a mix of competitive, drama filled action (great for an eyecatcher or two), but there was also a fair share of uncomplicated races to read where the winner was much the best. So with that in consideration;

Winners Value for More

Labaik: Last to first off a steady gallop. Talented horse when he decides to jump.
Altior: Scampered up the hill, putting distance into his rivals after the last despite steady pace not seeing Hendersons star to best effect. Charbel was running a big race and would have made him work for it.
Tiger Roll: This was a remarkable performance. Absolutely clouted a few fences, was plenty keen for most of the way and still routed the field. Huge ability if staying up over marathon trips.
Might Bite: Monstrous effort, had good horses in trouble a long way out. Waywardness allowed them a sniff. Whisper it, wins the King George.
Flying Tiger: This barely made the cut as it suited to come off the pace here. But made a bad mistake coming down the hill, waited with in traffic, squeezed and still made lots of ground to win impressively.
Fayonagh: Missed the start, last to first, the 'flying mare' and Jamie Codd. Making ground like that off only a reasonable gallop was jaw dropping.
Presenting Percy: This laughed at the handicapper. Or should I say laughed at those laughing at the handicapper. Grade 1 races next surely.
Un de Sceaux: A length winner, value for 10 however. Came home well below par having gone so hard. Runaway with Ruby yet had done enough to last it out. Electric to watch.
Nichols Canyon: Like Causes of Causes, this is ominous. First try at the Stayers with a far from ideal prep, could this be the start of the domination of this division. Patiently ridden, when trained for 3 miles next season, could replicate his owners success in the race.
Road to Respect: RtR, We have a replacement for Road to Riches. Awkward at the first fence, tight to the last, the Noel Meade trained horse made a mockery of 145. Ryanair next year, couldn't have been more impressive.
Let's Dance: Ridden so patiently, overly so, that she did well in fact to scythe through the field so easily. It showed how much confidence Ruby had in her (and how little he had in Airlie Beach on the day). There was a heart stopping moment at the last when backers that it was Annie Power II but instead it was Quevega all over again.

Eyecatchers
Wicklow Brave: Blew he start and gave a high quality field 6l. Pace was not hectic granted which allowed him get back to the bunch. Tanked into the race down the hill on the outer, 3rd and threatened turning in before understandably flattenening out after getting tired.
Vroum Vroum Mag: Held up, as was Limini off a steady gallop. Wide throughout, worringly so at the turn at the top of the hill and into the straight. Tanked through the race and just failed. If Townend could go again I'd say he'd have won. She is the best mare in the race in my opinion.
Last Goodbye: Hampered by the Foxtail Hill fall, hampered again at the 2nd last, really caught the eye as bang in contention with every chance at the time. Still managed 5th despite it all. Small connections, while very shrewd means this may go under the radar at Punchestown. Deans Road and Powersbomb get honourable mentions and also go into the tracker for upcoming festivals.
Scoir Mear: Rory Delargy reported that his fancy for this race had travelled over poorly and not eaten up. Ridden cold at the rear of the Coral Cup field, where it suited to be prominent or tracking the pace, he came from an impossible position to be 5th. The combination of the run and the back story is enough to make him very interesting next time out.
Balnaslow: Very bad mistake at the 12th. Hit the last a belt. Went a good clip the whole way, jumping other than the two fences mentioned and travelling like a dream for Derek O'Connor. While Katie Walsh would love another go on Wonderful Charm I'm sure, Balnaslow seems the more underrated post race. The moral winner for me, yet only finished 5th. Could be a big price at Aintree or Punchestown.
Calipto: Jumping a worry but was out of his ground in the Grand Annual, stayed on very well late on after a mistake at a crucial time at the 3rd last.

Honourable mentions to; Ballyandy, Capital Force, Charbel, Cloudy Dream, Vintage Clouds, Arbre de Vie, Haymount, Neon Wolf, Burbank, Mr Miyagi, Divin Bere, Dino Velvet, And the New, Electric Concorde, Sugar Baron, Ex Patriot, L'Ami Serge, The Worlds End, Constantine Bay, Bristol De Mai, Ballyhill, Thomas Campbell, Croco Bay.

The Flat is Back

Messrs O’Brien, Weld, Bolger, Lyons, Oxx and Halford all hold entries on Dundalk’s Friday night card. All the big names have come to play and it’s understandable as they ready their artillery for the start of the Flat Turf season and Sunday and set fire to the engines.

Dundalk concludes the winter series this Friday, though there is racing at the County Louth venue next Wednesday, that will be part of the 2015 season proper. The column which I started in November has been fun to do. Holding my opinions to account on the upcoming action has been worthwhile and made me focus. The downside of the piece is that it is written early on Tuesday when declarations are still unknown so it’s hard to talk about a race in detail, and sometimes annoys discussing non -runners.

Since starting there has been 108 selections of which 86 ran, 26 winners meant a 30% strike rate.  If you had a €1 on each horse in bold you’d be plus €37.94 overall, a 44% profit on turnover. Those figures are calculated to SP so in an era where you can take morning prices and they are guaranteed, hopefully some of you got on even better. Five Claw 7/1-11/4, Grey Danube 14/1-6/1 and Burren View Lady 10/1-11/4 some of the more memorable ones. Of course drifters win too with Share a Secret winning for the column at 20/1. Let’s hope we can finish with a bang.

Octavia is a horse that has been entered and re-entered into my tracker as a result of very noteworthy runs. The David Marnane trained filly has had 4 starts but never troubled the judge, as a result is off a mark of 68 in Fridays 6f 3yo handicap. Her first run was satisfactory at Leopardstown when green and never really put into the race. Her 2^nd start at Dundalk was more eye-catching when ridden to the rear early and taking a wide trip throughout; there was plenty to suggest the grey Acclamation filly had ability. A run in a Naas maiden when nearly brought down mid race, heavily restrained and finishing full of running furthered the intrigue. On Octavia’s first handicap run last day of course I jumped the gun thinking a mark of 70 was generous enough starting point. Connor King didn’t really put her into the race in an overly patient ride and once again she finished with running left. I’d imagine she won’t be 100% fit on Friday but think that this is a fantastic opportunity to open Octavia’s account, even the extremely patient team of David Marnane should be keen to crack on now with this well handicapped filly.

There is an intriguing mile auction maiden for 3yo’s which Indian Tomahawk should head the betting being highest rated.  I feel could be short enough however as flattered to beat Charlie Bear in a slowly run race last time when the twice subsequent winning Charlie Bear wasn’t 100%. Maira is talented but quirky and just doesn’t want to win while Hat Alnasar is respected but form doesn’t set the world alight. Manny Owens and Navegante are two from smaller yards that may well be overpriced. Crucially Navegante avoids a 6lb penalty for winning and that will advantageous to the promising son of Lord Shanakill who will be well suited stepped back up to a mile.

A €20,000 7f handicap race for 3yo+ is the highlight of the evening and if the majority of the entries declare it will be a belter. Bishan Bedi has rapidly risen in the ranks since joining AP O’Brien going from a rating of 65-94. It’s significant that Aidan O’Brien has given him an entry in the Group 3 Gladness Stakes in April. Stay de Night has looked a star in the making for Dermot Weld though. The Shamardal gelding has a quick ground action and whilst probably better suited to a mile appeals off 100. On Champions weekend at Leopardstown he was beaten only 2l in 6^th after a rough race where he was hampered on a few occasions and finished full of horse with nowhere to go. Togoville would be a massive danger if on song. His form is as strong as there is this winter at Dundalk beating The Dancing Lord, Grey Danube and Have a Nice Day on his way to a mark of 91, a rating which he fully deserves and up to 7f should see him at his best again. Oor Jock is worth a mention back up to favoured 7f was very eye-catching last day when flashing home over 6f.

Jim Bolger should continue his good start to the season with County Wexford, though Cash or Casualty remains dangerously well handicapped if returning to form. Newcomers French Approach and Deor should fight out the 12f maiden and the market should give a good guide. The 10f 3yo maiden contains 3 Dermot Weld entries and whichever he runs I’d make the most likely winner.

Thank you for reading and hope to talk to you all again in September. 

County Wexford to Double Up

Once Cheltenham is over talk creeps in of the flat. One thing to help expedite that this year has been the introduction of the new format to the British Flat Jockey’s Championship. It will be a shorter season to crown a champion from the 2000 Guineas in Newmarket to Champions Day in Ascot. This wouldn’t have affected the result in the past 4 seasons. It may suit those in demand more as the likes of Ryan Moore won’t rue missed winners at home when riding internationally in early spring and late autumn.

Shane Gray from Dundalk has been a tremendous success story this winter campaign. Attached to the Kevin Ryan stable the County Louth man has rode many winners for Sheikh Mohammed’s Godolphin from the support of in form Charlie Appleby. He is leading apprentice for the UK All Weather season with 25 winners and is 8^th overall in the jockey standings. Grays quarter of a century didn’t come without a hitch; he took a terrible fall on the 3^rd of January at Lingfield and was lucky to escape with a collapsed lung. The ex-Champion Pony rider has 68 winners in his career so far and the future is very bright on the flat for Fifi Gray with Britain’s Flat Turf season on the horizon. With the might of Kevin Ryan behind him could we see a Dundalk man crowned leading apprentice in 2015, we can hope.

There is a cracking little preamble to the flat at Dundalk this Friday. The Weatherby’s Printing Race over 6f attracted a small but select field of entries. Russian Soul somehow crept past conditions which seemed to exclude him from the race and could be a big player fit from Meydan. The Halford runners 3^rd to Sir Maximillian here in October would nearly be good enough. Balmont Mast had a lovely return behind Captain Joy here last time over a furlong too far. Settled in rear off a slow gallop it was an eye-catching return from Eddie Lynams charge but it’s a small worry we haven’t seen him since. I Will Excel is a talented 3yo but looks quirky in a finish. Seanie and An Saighduir will be using this as a prep race for bigger targets in Spring on turf and Farmleigh House doesn’t look the horse he once was. That leaves me with the selection Grey Danube. The Bunyan trained 6yo gelding is in the form of his life and while the grey has a few pounds to find on official ratings, I think he can bridge the gap with current form and fitness. Not quite staying the mile behind Paene Magnus in the fast track qualifier for Lingfield and before then running out an impressive winner over subsequent victor Have a Nice Day. If there are any holes in the highly rated pair of Russian Soul and Balmont Mast, Grey Danube should be fit to take full advantage over ideal course and distance. 

Period Piece has three seconds to her name for Jessica Harrington but I wouldn’t let that put you off. A combination of greenness and running into a couple of good ones has stopped her so far. Blue Fragrance looked a small 2yo type and I’m not convinced one to progress. Unchanged has looked awkward in the finish while promising for Fozzy Stack. €20,000 can claim Period Piece in this race and I think Harrington may fear that more than the opposition if lining up.

Adroit had two excellent runs to start her career but then ran poorly twice on soft ground. She’s moved to F Dunne and should appreciate the fast surface here, the type that could be overpriced in this field.

County Wexford ran a curious race last week. Going a good clip early, travelling like much the best horse in the straight but then the young jockey seemed to let Reckless Lad pass him before getting serious with the Bolger gelding. Once driven he responded well and won a neck before being hard to pull up. The handicapper hasn’t missed him giving 6lb penalty but I think the important point here is the son of Teofilio remains in the bottom grade 47-65. I think it may be his last run in such a race, his beating of 72 and 71 rated rivals last week make me think he’s capable of backing up. Share a Secret is respected here each way as was drawn 13 last time out and didn’t get the clearest of runs, was dropped a pound for her efforts but remains in good heart.

Sakhees Jack was restrained here over 5f in October and ran on to make many a notebook when qualifying for a handicap mark. 67 could look lenient for the Deegan horse stepping back up in trip; he was only a length behind subsequent 78 rated handicap winner Daisy Bell. Early season 3yo handicaps are always tough though and Nialls Rory, Family Pride and Absorbing are also respected.   

Dundalk the After Party

Fifty minutes after the Grand Annual Dundalk gets underway on Friday evening. A two mile maiden; one of the worst you’ll see. That’s one way to throw cold water on festival punters who are trying to get over that it’s 361 days until Cheltenham and they will never see AP McCoy at the festival again.  

But what a week it will have been. Un de Sceaux wins the Arkle by a distance, Annie Power cruises to victory in the mares and Jezki triumphant again on Day 1. Don Poli goes fav for next year’s Gold Cup after an awesome display in the RSA. Sprinter Sacre hits 1.01 in the Champion Chase before finding nowt and Sire De Grugy imperious once more.  Toutancarmont wins the Cross Country to the delight of Kingbet Cheltenham Preview goers and a 4th string of Willie Mullins wins the bumper.  

Tony Martin followers can’t decide which horse is better handicapped in the Pertemps so back them all but emergency services are needed when Call the Cops strays them up the hill. Ryanair is the first time we’ve seen a dead heat for 6 horses at the festival and At Fishers Cross overcomes the dozen ailments that have stopped him jumping in the past to give AP McCoy a shock win in the World Hurdle. A combination of a holiday in Limerick, the curing of ulcers and plastic shoes are said to have worked the oracle.  

Peace and Co is made favourite for next year’s Champion Hurdle after not coming off the bridle in the Triumph, Hawk High repeats last years Fred Winter win in the County. Co. Meath is in clover after Road to Riches proves to be the new kid on the block in the Gold Cup and Noel Meade promises the wife a longer honeymoon live on Channel 4 afterwards. McCoy’s ride goes off 10/11 in the Grand Annual but is brought down at the first and the one he had the choice of riding wins.  

Dundalk will have its biggest audience of the year Friday. Do you think it matters that the quality isn’t great, not a bit of it. Tails are up and the blood is flying through the veins come 6pm Friday and turnover on the 9.05pm can be more than the Triumph in my experience. It looks a ferociously competitive card to boot. Viaduct Joey should eventually get off the mark in the first, a dreadful heat but will be short enough.  

Farmleigh House is an interesting entry in the 6f handicap. The 8yo has a 33% strike rate on the all-weather and the handicapper has given him a chance here by dropping him 8lb since his last run. The W Martin trained gelding won a handicap off 104 here in 2013 and now runs off 89. If at all refreshed after his break he could be the class act. Bubbly Bellini should reverse the form with Almadaa and Pencil Hill should run much better on its 2nd start of the season.  

I Will Excel is sure to be popular in the betting for the Elusive Pimpernel Race. Rated 90 the Michael Callaghan trained colt has some eye-catching form in the book but worries me he can be a weak finisher and hold his head high. Wychwood Warrior has run two good races in Meydan and looks a nice genuine horse that is hard fit from Dubai and ready to run well. He had a wide trip behind Mastermind when keen first time in UAE and then ran into a couple of 100 rated rivals in the Meydan Classic on the 26th of Feb. If making the trip back he is my choice from the Halford yard. Muaraabit was eye-catching the last day and is worth noting in the market for in form David Marnane stable.  

Gold Cup Day is a right day to have a gamble. I suspect this may be the plan with Burren View Lady. The 5yo Denis Hogan trained mare is down to a rating of 57 from 75 when he started to train her back in September. A flyer is taken here as the literal formbook wouldn’t agree with me but if you see market support for this one I’d join in. She’s won 5 races from 32 starts including off a mark of 79. Freshened up since her last run, she showed enough behind Indian Landing here under a negative ride to suggest ability is still there.   

The apprentice handicap contains a load of old favourites but Reckless Lad ran a blinder here for a comeback a fortnight ago. Pivot Bridge I feel has more room for improvement on a sound surface on the flat to mirror the progress over jumps and may be wise to catch fresh in the 12f race. A chance is taken with Little Arrows in the last that caught the eye last time staying on over a mile and is down to a dangerous mark.   

Warning events at Cheltenham preceding Dundalk may or may not have happened. Have a great week.  

Parish Pride and Joy

The All-Weather Championships Finals Day will take place at Lingfield on Good Friday, the 3^rd of April. Qualifiers will race for the £1.1m prize money over 7 disciplines. Dundalk host two fast track qualifiers this Friday for the Mile and the Middle Distance finals. Win and you’re guaranteed a spot at the table Good Friday, lose and it gets a little more trying as you have to run in 2 more qualifying races to make the cut. One horse who will have no such problem is Captain Joy; he has already booked his ticket.

The 6yo of Tracey Collins is on a four timer. He is a synthetic specialist and due to his win at Lingfield in a Conditions race back in January he is already headed for the Final, crucially having gotten experience at the track. The Dark Angel gelding is 7 wins from 13 runs on all weather, 2 of those disappointing on the Tapeta in Meydan which makes his record all the better. There are higher rated rivals in the mile contest Friday but few are as straight forward and in such form as the Herb Stanley owned grey. 116 rated Gordon Lord Byron is entered but looks likely to go to the Far East instead which is a shame. 2000 Guineas second Glory Awaits is also entered from the Yorkshire stable of Kevin Ryan. Last seen when winning a Group 2 in Turkey, he won a 7f listed race in Chester back in July and is 108 rated. He looks a tricky customer but retains plenty of ability. The worry would be lack of a recent run and his one try on all weather in Meydan was a disaster.

The mile race received 16 entries and if the majority were to turn up it would be a cracking heat. Ex-Richard Hannon trained Producer is now with Dermot Weld. He is rated 110 and is a group 2 and 3 winner but much of his best work looks at 7f. Weld also has a new recruit in Vedelago, he won a Group 1 in Italy and is rated 104. His old jockey Esposito has been quoted as saying ‘needs a first race to get him competitive again’. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=65Ty5aX9Sc4&feature=youtu.be

The Halford pair of Slipper Orchid and Castle Guest are in the line-up but have been running at Meydan recently so I’m not confident of their participation, though Slipper Orchid has been thriving and would run well. Paene Magnus for Jim Bolger has a lofty rating of 106 but was in poor form when last racing here in October. Seanie, Bold Thady Quill, Tennessee Wildcat, Rummaging and Bishan Bedi are all high class handicappers in the 16. Two who may excel themselves are the in-form Grey Danube if staying a mile and Togoville who will appreciate step back up to a 8f here, though they have a bit to find on ratings.  In summary a cracking race to savour; many with questions using this as a prep, it pays to keep it simple with Captain Joy.

The Middle Distance fast track qualifier in contrast has a poor set of entries. Racing for the same €20,000 purse the 10f race has only attracted 7 runners. Parish Hall for Jim Bolger will take the world of beating if fit and well enough after 82 day layoff. The 112 rated son of Teofilio is 1/1 at Dundalk winning the G3 Diamond Stakes here in 2013, with Captain Joy back in 4^th. With a sound surface underneath this fella is a class act and only Dermot Weld stands in his way. A French and Italian import could represent Weld here. Behesht is a Sea the Stars colt who started favourite on 6 of his 7 starts for A De Royer-Dupre, including when winning a listed race over 12f on soft at Saint Cloud in September. His old trainer quoted after saying ground was ‘softer than he wants’ and is a nice horse for ‘staying races at 4yo’.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-yfLbB3_Mw&feature=youtu.be

He is interesting but may want further and his new stablemate Vedelago is also entered in the mile. In form handicappers like Moonmeister and Whippers Boy will be praying Parish Boy doesn’t declare as with racing off level weights, it would be a forlorn hope. 

Elsewhere on the card I fancy David Marnane to have a double. Deemah looks well weighted and drop to 7f ideal in the 3yo handicap. Oliveraie showed loads of promise here on debut behind Charlie Bear and with improvement can win the mile maiden. Hilary can benefit from a drop into the bottom grade, a big field and a pace to run at in the mile handicap. Maontri didn’t stay 10f last time but showed some old sparkle and can be very competitive off 82. Cheltenham? What’s that!